Linear mixed models with large imbalanced crossed random effects structures pose severe computational problems for maximum likelihood estimation and for Bayesian analysis. The costs can grow as fast as $N^{3/2}$ when there are N observations. Such problems arise in any setting where the underlying factors satisfy a many to many relationship (instead of a nested one) and in electronic commerce applications, the N can be quite large. Methods that do not account for the correlation structure can greatly underestimate uncertainty. We propose a method of moments approach that takes account of the correlation structure and that can be computed at O(N) cost. The method of moments is very amenable to parallel computation and it does not require parametric distributional assumptions, tuning parameters or convergence diagnostics. For the regression coefficients, we give conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality as well as a consistent variance estimate. For the variance components, we give conditions for consistency and we use consistent estimates of a mildly conservative variance estimate. All of these computations can be done in O(N) work. We illustrate the algorithm with some data from Stitch Fix where the crossed random effects correspond to clients and items.
We investigate the issue of post-selection inference for a fixed and a mixed parameter in a linear mixed model using a conditional Akaike information criterion as a model selection procedure. Within the framework of linear mixed models we develop complete theory to construct confidence intervals for regression and mixed parameters under three frameworks: nested and general model sets as well as misspecified models. Our theoretical analysis is accompanied by a simulation experiment and a post-selection examination on mean income across Galicia's counties. Our numerical studies confirm a good pe…
Over the past decades, linear mixed models have attracted considerable attention in various fields of applied statistics. They are popular whenever clustered, hierarchical or longitudinal data are investigated. Nonetheless, statistical tools for valid simultaneous inference for mixed parameters are rare. This is surprising because one often faces inferential problems beyond the pointwise examination of fixed or mixed parameters. For example, there is an interest in a comparative analysis of cluster-level parameters or subject-specific estimates in studies with repeated measurements. We discuss…
We present a brief overview of the methods for making statistical inference (testing statistical hypotheses, construction of confidence and/or prediction intervals and regions) about linear functions of the fixed effects and/or about the fixed and random effects simultaneously, in conventional simple linear mixed model. The presented approach is based on solutions from the Henderson's mixed model equations.
We obtain results on both weak and almost sure asymptotic behaviour of power variations of a linear combination of independent Wiener process and fractional Brownian motion. These results are used to construct strongly consistent parameter estimators in mixed models.
Today, generalized linear mixed models are broadly used in many fields. However, the development of tools for performing simultaneous inference has been largely neglected in this domain. A framework for joint inference is indispensable to carry out statistically valid multiple comparisons of parameters of interest between all or several clusters. We therefore develop simultaneous confidence intervals and multiple testing procedures for empirical best predictors under generalized linear mixed models. In addition, we implement our methodology to study widely employed examples of mixed models, th…
Variance parameter estimation in linear mixed models is a challenge for many classical nonlinear optimization algorithms due to the positive-definiteness constraint of the random effects covariance matrix. We take a completely novel view on parameter estimation in linear mixed models by exploiting the intrinsic geometry of the parameter space. We formulate the problem of residual maximum likelihood estimation as an optimization problem on a Riemannian manifold. Based on the introduced formulation, we give geometric higher-order information on the problem via the Riemannian gradient and the Rie…
The presence of unobserved node specific heterogeneity in Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) is a general concern, both with respect to model validity as well as estimation instability. We therefore extend the ERGM by including node specific random effects that account for unobserved heterogeneity in the network. This leads to a mixed model with parametric as well as random coefficients, labelled as mixed ERGM. Estimation is carried out by combining approximate penalized pseudolikelihood estimation for the random effects with maximum likelihood estimation for the remaining parameters in th…
In practice, data often contain discrete variables. But most of the popular nonparametric estimation methods have been developed in a purely continuous framework. A common trick among practitioners is to make discrete variables continuous by adding a small amount of noise. We show that this approach is justified if the noise distribution belongs to a certain class. In this case, any estimator developed in a purely continuous framework extends naturally to the mixed data setting. Estimators defined that way will be called continuous convolution estimators. They are extremely easy to implement a…
Expectation propagation is a general prescription for approximation of integrals in statistical inference problems. Its literature is mainly concerned with Bayesian inference scenarios. However, expectation propagation can also be used to approximate integrals arising in frequentist statistical inference. We focus on likelihood-based inference for binary response mixed models and show that fast and accurate quadrature-free inference can be realized for the probit link case with multivariate random effects and higher levels of nesting. The approach is supported by asymptotic theory in which exp…
This paper is devoted to parameter estimation of the mixed fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a drift. Large sample asymptotical properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator is deduced using the Laplace transform computations or the Cameron-Martin formula with extra part from \cite{CK19}
We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of parameters for models governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by a mixed fractional Brownian motion with random effects.
In this paper, we consider a single-index mixed model with longitudinal data. A new set of estimating equations is proposed to estimate the single-index coefficient. The link function is estimated by using the local linear smoothing. Asymptotic normality is established for the proposed estimators. Also, the estimator of the link function achieves optimal convergence rates; and the estimators of variance components have root-$n$ consistency. These results facilitate the construction of confidence regions/intervals and hypothesis testing for the parameters of interest. Some simulations and an ap…
Linear mixed-effect models with two variance components are often used when variability comes from two sources. In genetics applications, variation in observed traits can be attributed to biological and environmental effects, and the heritability coefficient is a fundamental quantity that measures the proportion of total variability due to the biological effect. We propose a new inferential model approach which yields exact prior-free probabilistic inference on the heritability coefficient. In particular we construct exact confidence intervals and demonstrate numerically our method's efficienc…
We propose a new method for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of nonlinear mixed effects models when the variance matrix of Gaussian random effects has a prescribed pattern of zeros (PPZ). The method consists in coupling the recently developed Iterative Conditional Fitting (ICF) algorithm with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. It provides positive definite estimates for any sample size, and does not rely on any structural assumption on the PPZ. It can be easily adapted to many versions of EM.
We study the mutual information estimation for mixed-pair random variables. One random variable is discrete and the other one is continuous. We develop a kernel method to estimate the mutual information between the two random variables. The estimates enjoy a central limit theorem under some regular conditions on the distributions. The theoretical results are demonstrated by simulation study.
Mixed linear models are commonly used in repeated measures studies. They account for the dependence amongst observations obtained from the same experimental unit. Oftentimes, the number of observations is small, and it is thus important to use inference strategies that incorporate small sample corrections. In this paper, we develop modified versions of the likelihood ratio test for fixed effects inference in mixed linear models. In particular, we derive a Bartlett correction to such a test and also to a test obtained from a modified profile likelihood function. Our results generalize those in …
We study minimax density estimation on the product space $\mathbb{R}^{d_1}\times\mathbb{R}^{d_2}$. We consider $L^p$-risk for probability density functions defined over regularity spaces that allow for different level of smoothness in each of the variables. Precisely, we study probabilities on Sobolev spaces with dominating mixed-smoothness. We provide the rate of convergence that is optimal even for the classical Sobolev spaces.
Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing repeated measures data, including clustered and longitudinal data, where inferences of both fixed effects and variance components are of importance. Unlike the fixed effect inference that has been well studied, inference on the variance components is more challenging due to null value being on the boundary and the nuisance parameters of the fixed effects. Existing methods often require strong distributional assumptions on the random effects and random errors. In this paper, we develop empirical likelihood-based methods for the inference …
We consider a re-sampling scheme for estimation of the population parameters in the mixed effects nonlinear regression models of the type use for example in clinical pharmacokinetics, say. We provide an estimation procedure which {\it recycles}, via random weighting, the relevant two-stage parameters estimates to construct consistent estimates of the sampling distribution of the various estimates. We establish the asymptotic consistency and asymptotic normality of the resampled estimates and demonstrate the applicability of the {\it recycling} approach in a small simulation study and via examp…
We extend the linear mixed-effects state model to accommodate the correlated individuals and investigate its parameter and state estimation based on disturbance smoothing in this paper. For parameter estimation, EM and score based algorithms are considered. Intermediate quantity of EM algorithm is investigated firstly from which the explicit recursive formulas for the maximizer of the intermediate quantity are derived out for two given models. As for score based algorithms, explicit formulas for the score vector are achieved from which it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimation is equi…
The mixed fractional Vasicek model, which is an extended model of the traditional Vasicek model, has been widely used in modelling volatility, interest rate and exchange rate. Obviously, if some phenomenon are modeled by the mixed fractional Vasicek model, statistical inference for this process is of great interest. Based on continuous time observations, this paper considers the problem of estimating the drift parameters in the mixed fractional Vasicek model. We will propose the maximum likelihood estimators of the drift parameters in the mixed fractional Vasicek model with the Radon-Nikodym d…
Nonlinear mixed effects models have received a great deal of attention in the statistical literature in recent years because of their flexibility in handling longitudinal studies, including human immunodeficiency virus viral dynamics, pharmacokinetic analyses, and studies of growth and decay. A standard assumption in nonlinear mixed effects models for continuous responses is that the random effects and the within-subject errors are normally distributed, making the model sensitive to outliers. We present a novel class of asymmetric nonlinear mixed effects models that provides efficient paramete…
The Box-Cox transformation is applied to the linear mixed models for analyzing positive and grouped data. The problem in using Box Cox transformation is that the maximum likelihood estimator of the transformation parameter is generally inconsistent. To fix it, we suggest a simple and consistent estimator for the transformation parameter based on the moment method. The consistent estimator is used to construct consistent estimators of the parameters involved in the model and under some conditions, the estimators of model parameters are shown to be consistent under $m\to\infty$, where $m$ is the…
We consider a linear mixed-effects model with a clustered structure, where the parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) based on possibly unbalanced data. Inference with this model is typically done based on asymptotic theory, assuming that the number of clusters tends to infinity with the sample size. However, when the number of clusters is fixed, classical asymptotic theory developed under a divergent number of clusters is no longer valid and can lead to erroneous conclusions. In this paper, we establish the asymptotic properties of the ML estimators of random-effects parameter…
In $M$-estimation under standard asymptotics, the weak convergence combined with the polynomial type large deviation estimate of the associated statistical random field Yoshida (2011) provides us with not only the asymptotic distribution of the associated $M$-estimator but also the convergence of its moments, the latter playing an important role in theoretical statistics. In this paper, we study the above program for statistical random fields of multiple and also possibly mixed-rates type in the sense of Radchenko (2008) where the associated statistical random fields may be non-differentiable …
We present new results for consistency of maximum likelihood estimators with a focus on multivariate mixed models. Our theory builds on the idea of using subsets of the full data to establish consistency of estimators based on the full data. It requires neither that the data consist of independent observations, nor that the observations can be modeled as a stationary stochastic process. Compared to existing asymptotic theory using the idea of subsets we substantially weaken the assumptions, bringing them closer to what suffices in classical settings. We apply our theory in two multivariate mix…
Texas A&M University（德州农工大学）；The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；Northeastern University（东北大学）
Density estimation plays a key role in many tasks in machine learning, statistical inference, and visualization. The main bottleneck in high-dimensional density estimation is the prohibitive computational cost and the slow convergence rate. In this paper, we propose novel estimators for high-dimensional non-parametric density estimation called the adaptive hyperbolic cross density estimators, which enjoys nice convergence properties in the mixed smooth Sobolev spaces. As modifications of the usual Sobolev spaces, the mixed smooth Sobolev spaces are more suitable for describing high-dimensional…
The linear fractional stable motion generalizes two prominent classes of stochastic processes, namely stable Lévy processes, and fractional Brownian motion. For this reason it may be regarded as a basic building block for continuous time models. We study a stylized model consisting of a superposition of independent linear fractional stable motions and our focus is on parameter estimation of the model. Applying an estimating equations approach, we construct estimators for the whole set of parameters and derive their asymptotic normality in a high-frequency regime. The conditions for consistency…
A mixed Gaussian fractional process $\{Y(t)\}_{t \in {\Bbb R}} = \{PX(t)\}_{t \in {\Bbb R}}$ is a multivariate stochastic process obtained by pre-multiplying a vector of independent, Gaussian fractional process entries $X$ by a nonsingular matrix $P$. It is interpreted that $Y$ is observable, while $X$ is a hidden process occurring in an (unknown) system of coordinates $P$. Mixed processes naturally arise as approximations to solutions of physically relevant classes of multivariate fractional SDEs under aggregation. We propose a semiparametric two-step wavelet-based method for estimating both …
The known connection between shrinkage estimation, empirical Bayes, and mixed effects models is explored and applied to balanced and unbalanced designs in which the responses are correlated. As an illustration, a mixed model is proposed for predicting the outcome of English Premier League games that takes into account both home and away team effects. Results based on empirical best linear unbiased predictors obtained from fitting mixed linear models are compared with fully Bayesian predictors that utilize prior information from the previous season.
This work addresses the problem of conducting valid inference for additive and linear mixed models after model selection. One possible solution to overcome overconfident inference results after model selection is selective inference, which constitutes a post-selection inference framework, yielding valid inference statements by conditioning on the selection event. We extend recent work on selective inference to the class of additive and linear mixed models for any type of model selection mechanism that can be expressed as a function of the outcome variable (and potentially on covariates on whic…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes are observed in multiple individuals or experimental units, SDE driven mixed-effects models allow the quantification of between (as well as within) individual variation. Performing Bayesian inference for such models, using discrete time data that may be incomplete and subject to measurement error is a challenging problem and is the focus of this paper. We extend a recently proposed MCMC scheme to include the SDE driv…
We propose an $\ell_1$-penalized estimation procedure for high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. The models are useful whenever there is a grouping structure among high-dimensional observations, i.e. for clustered data. We prove a consistency and an oracle optimality result and we develop an algorithm with provable numerical convergence. Furthermore, we demonstrate the performance of the method on simulated and a real high-dimensional data set.
We consider Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equation mixed effects models (SDEMEMs) exemplifying tumor response to treatment and regrowth in mice. We produce an extensive study on how a SDEMEM can be fitted using both exact inference based on pseudo-marginal MCMC and approximate inference via Bayesian synthetic likelihoods (BSL). We investigate a two-compartments SDEMEM, these corresponding to the fractions of tumor cells killed by and survived to a treatment, respectively. Case study data considers a tumor xenography study with two treatment groups and one control, each contain…
We propose a versatile and computationally efficient estimating equation method for a class of hierarchical multiplicative generalized linear mixed models with additive dispersion components, based on explicit modelling of the covariance structure. The class combines longitudinal and random effects models and retains a marginal as well as a conditional interpretation. The estimation procedure combines that of generalized estimating equations for the regression with residual maximum likelihood estimation for the association parameters. This avoids the multidimensional integral of the convention…
The R package lcmm provides a series of functions to estimate statistical models based on linear mixed model theory. It includes the estimation of mixed models and latent class mixed models for Gaussian longitudinal outcomes (hlme), curvilinear and ordinal univariate longitudinal outcomes (lcmm) and curvilinear multivariate outcomes (multlcmm), as well as joint latent class mixed models (Jointlcmm) for a (Gaussian or curvilinear) longitudinal outcome and a time-to-event that can be possibly left-truncated right-censored and defined in a competing setting. Maximum likelihood esimators are obtai…
We investigate the issue of bandwidth estimation in a nonparametric functional regression model with function-valued, continuous real-valued and discrete-valued regressors under the framework of unknown error density. Extending from the recent work of Shang (2013, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis), we approximate the unknown error density by a kernel density estimator of residuals, where the regression function is estimated by the functional Nadaraya-Watson estimator that admits mixed types of regressors. We derive a kernel likelihood and posterior density for the bandwidth parameters …
We present `latentcor`, an R package for correlation estimation from data with mixed variable types. Mixed variables types, including continuous, binary, ordinal, zero-inflated, or truncated data are routinely collected in many areas of science. Accurate estimation of correlations among such variables is often the first critical step in statistical analysis workflows. Pearson correlation as the default choice is not well suited for mixed data types as the underlying normality assumption is violated. The concept of semi-parametric latent Gaussian copula models, on the other hand, provides a uni…
In mixed longitudinal studies, a group of subjects enter the study at different ages (cross-sectional) and are followed for successive years (longitudinal). In the context of such studies, we consider nonparametric covariance estimation with samples of noisy and partially observed functional trajectories. The proposed algorithm is based on a noniterative sequential-aggregation scheme with only basic matrix operations and closed-form solutions in each step. The good performance of the proposed method is supported by both theory and numerical experiments. We also apply the proposed procedure to …
The likelihood for the parameters of a generalized linear mixed model involves an integral which may be of very high dimension. Because of this intractability, many approximations to the likelihood have been proposed, but all can fail when the model is sparse, in that there is only a small amount of information available on each random effect. The sequential reduction method described in this paper exploits the dependence structure of the posterior distribution of the random effects to reduce substantially the cost of finding an accurate approximation to the likelihood in models with sparse st…
Variational inference methods have been shown to lead to significant improvements in the computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian inference in mixed multinomial logit models when compared to standard Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods without compromising accuracy. However, despite their demonstrated efficiency gains, existing methods still suffer from important limitations that prevent them to scale to very large datasets, while providing the flexibility to allow for rich prior distributions and to capture complex posterior distributions. In this paper, we propose an Amortized Va…
We propose a new method for multivariate response regression and covariance estimation when elements of the response vector are of mixed types, for example some continuous and some discrete. Our method is based on a model which assumes the observable mixed-type response vector is connected to a latent multivariate normal response linear regression through a link function. We explore the properties of this model and show its parameters are identifiable under reasonable conditions. We impose no parametric restrictions on the covariance of the latent normal other than positive definiteness, there…
