We present a novel distributed probabilistic bisection algorithm using social learning with application to target localization. Each agent in the network first constructs a query about the target based on its local information and obtains a noisy response. Agents then perform a Bayesian update of their beliefs followed by an averaging of the log beliefs over local neighborhoods. This two stage algorithm consisting of repeated querying and averaging runs until convergence. We derive bounds on the rate of convergence of the beliefs at the correct target location. Numerical simulations show that our method outperforms current state of the art methods.
The digital spread of misinformation is one of the leading threats to democracy, public health, and the global economy. Popular strategies for mitigating misinformation include crowdsourcing, machine learning, and media literacy programs that require social media users to classify news in binary terms as either true or false. However, research on peer influence suggests that framing decisions in binary terms can amplify judgment errors and limit social learning, whereas framing decisions in probabilistic terms can reliably improve judgments. In this preregistered experiment, we compare online …
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）
We propose a framework for inferring the latent attitudes or preferences of users by performing probabilistic first-order logical reasoning over the social network graph. Our method answers questions about Twitter users like {\em Does this user like sushi?} or {\em Is this user a New York Knicks fan?} by building a probabilistic model that reasons over user attributes (the user's location or gender) and the social network (the user's friends and spouse), via inferences like homophily (I am more likely to like sushi if spouse or friends like sushi, I am more likely to like the Knicks if I live …
Trust assessment plays a key role in many online applications, such as online money lending, product reviewing and active friending. Trust models usually employ a group of parameters to represent the trust relation between a trustor-trustee pair. These parameters are originated from the trustor's bias and opinion on the trustee. Naturally, these parameters can be regarded as a vector. To address this problem, we propose a framework to accurately convert the single values to the parameters needed by 3VSL. The framework firstly employs a probabilistic graph model (PGM) to derive the trustor's op…
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic generative model, called unified model, which naturally unifies the ideas of social influence, collaborative filtering and content-based methods for item recommendation. To address the issue of hidden social influence, we devise new algorithms to learn the model parameters of our proposal based on expectation maximization (EM). In addition to a single-machine version of our EM algorithm, we further devise a parallelized implementation on the Map-Reduce framework to process two large-scale datasets we collect. Moreover, we show that the social influence…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）
We study the extent to which we can infer users' geographical locations from social media. Location inference from social media can benefit many applications, such as disaster management, targeted advertising, and news content tailoring. The challenges, however, lie in the limited amount of labeled data and the large scale of social networks. In this paper, we formalize the problem of inferring location from social media into a semi-supervised factor graph model (SSFGM). The model provides a probabilistic framework in which various sources of information (e.g., content and social network) can …
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the infection and recovery rates according to age or medical preconditions. Within our probabilistic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model on social-contact networks, we evaluate the `infection load' or `activation margin' of various control scenarios; by confinement, by vaccination, and by their combination. We compare the epidemic burden for subpopulations w…
Focusing on a specific crowd dynamics situation, including real life experiments and measurements, our paper targets a twofold aim: (1) we present a Bayesian probabilistic method to estimate the value and the uncertainty (in the form of a probability density function) of parameters in crowd dynamic models from the experimental data; and (2) we introduce a fitness measure for the models to classify a couple of model structures (forces) according to their fitness to the experimental data, preparing the stage for a more general model-selection and validation strategy inspired by probabilistic dat…
ISI Foundation（ISI基金会）；UniCredit（裕信银行）；New York University（纽约大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, i.e., homophily and other spurious causes. However, most studies to characterize social influence, and, in general, most data-science analyses focus on correlations, statistical independence, or conditional independence. Only recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in "causal data science", e.g., grounded on causality theories. In this paper we adopt a principled causal approach to the analysis of social influence fro…
A topic propagating in a social network reaches its tipping point if the number of users discussing it in the network exceeds a critical threshold such that a wide cascade on the topic is likely to occur. In this paper, we consider the task of selecting initial seed users of a topic with minimum size so that with a guaranteed probability the number of users discussing the topic would reach a given threshold. We formulate the task as an optimization problem called seed minimization with probabilistic coverage guarantee (SM-PCG). This problem departs from the previous studies on social influence…
Online social media platforms are turning into the prime source of news and narratives about worldwide events. However,a systematic summarization-based narrative extraction that can facilitate communicating the main underlying events is lacking. To address this issue, we propose a novel event-based narrative summary extraction framework. Our proposed framework is designed as a probabilistic topic model, with categorical time distribution, followed by extractive text summarization. Our topic model identifies topics' recurrence over time with a varying time resolution. This framework not only ca…
Information spread in social media depends on a number of factors, including how the site displays information, how users navigate it to find items of interest, users' tastes, and the `virality' of information, i.e., its propensity to be adopted, or retweeted, upon exposure. Probabilistic models can learn users' tastes from the history of their item adoptions and recommend new items to users. However, current models ignore cognitive biases that are known to affect behavior. Specifically, people pay more attention to items at the top of a list than those in lower positions. As a consequence, it…
On the Robustness of Spectral Algorithms for Semirandom Stochastic Block Models
University of Utah（犹他大学）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）；Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago（芝加哥丰田理工学院）
Community detection is considered as a fundamental task in analyzing social networks. Even though many techniques have been proposed for community detection, most of them are based exclusively on the connectivity structures. However, there are node features in real networks, such as gender types in social networks, feeding behavior in ecological networks, and location on e-trading networks, that can be further leveraged with the network structure to attain more accurate community detection methods. We propose a novel probabilistic graphical model to detect communities by taking into account bo…
Reliable propagation of information through large networks, e.g., communication networks, social networks or sensor networks is very important in many applications concerning marketing, social networks, and wireless sensor networks. However, social ties of friendship may be obsolete, and communication links may fail, inducing the notion of uncertainty in such networks. In this paper, we address the problem of optimizing information propagation in uncertain networks given a constrained budget of edges. We show that this problem requires to solve two NP-hard subproblems: the computation of expec…
Twitter provides an open and rich source of data for studying human behaviour at scale and is widely used in social and network sciences. However, a major criticism of Twitter data is that demographic information is largely absent. Enhancing Twitter data with user ages would advance our ability to study social network structures, information flows and the spread of contagions. Approaches toward age detection of Twitter users typically focus on specific properties of tweets, e.g., linguistic features, which are language dependent. In this paper, we devise a language-independent methodology for …
Information diffusion is a fundamental process that takes place over networks. While it is rarely realistic to observe the individual transmissions of the information diffusion process, it is typically possible to observe when individuals first publish the information. We look specifically at previously published algorithm NETINF that probabilistically identifies the optimal network that best explains the observed infection times. We explore how the algorithm could perform on a range of intrinsically different social and information network topologies, from news blogs and websites to Twitter t…
We present work in jointly inferring the unique individuals as well as their social rank within a collection of letters from an Old Assyrian trade colony in Kültepe, Turkey, settled by merchants from the ancient city of Assur for approximately 200 years between 1950-1750 BCE, the height of the Middle Bronze Age. Using a probabilistic latent-variable model, we leverage pairwise social differences between names in cuneiform tablets to infer a single underlying social order that best explains the data we observe. Evaluating our output with published judgments by domain experts suggests that our m…
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is caused by SARS-COV2 has become a pandemic. This disease is highly infectious and potentially fatal, causing a global public health concern. To contain the spread of COVID-19, governments are adopting nationwide interventions, like lockdown, containment and quarantine, restrictions on travel, cancelling social events and extensive testing. To understand the effects of these measures on the control of the epidemic in a data-driven manner, we propose a probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) based modified SEIQR model. The transitions associated with the mode…
Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；Univ. Lille（里尔大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Università degli Studi di Milano（米兰大学）；University of Insubria（因苏布里亚大学）；Aalto University（阿尔托大学）
In the problem of edge sign prediction, we are given a directed graph (representing a social network), and our task is to predict the binary labels of the edges (i.e., the positive or negative nature of the social relationships). Many successful heuristics for this problem are based on the troll-trust features, estimating at each node the fraction of outgoing and incoming positive/negative edges. We show that these heuristics can be understood, and rigorously analyzed, as approximators to the Bayes optimal classifier for a simple probabilistic model of the edge labels. We then show that the ma…
We propose new Degroot-type social learning models with feedback in a continuous time, to investigate the effect of a noisy information source on consensus formation in a social network. Unlike the standard Degroot framework, noisy information models destroy consensus formation. On the other hand, the noisy opinion dynamics converge to the equilibrium distribution that encapsulates correlations among agents' opinions. Interestingly, such an equilibrium distribution is also a non-equilibrium steady state (NESS) with a non-zero probabilistic current loop. Thus, noisy information source leads to …
Social networks have become an inseparable part of human life and processing them in an efficient manner is a top priority in the study of networks. These networks are highly dynamic and they are growing incessantly. Inspired by the concept of triadic closure, we propose a probabilistic mechanism to model the evolution of these dynamic graphs. Although triadic closure is ubiquitous in social networks and its presence helps forming communities, probabilistic models encapsulating it have not been studied adequately. We theoretically analyze our model and show how to bound the growth rate of some…
A theoretical model is presented which provides a way to simulate, at a very abstract level, power struggles in the social world. In the model, agents can benefit or harm each other, to varying degrees and with differing levels of influence. The agents interact over time, using the power they have to try to get more of it, while being constrained in their strategic choices by social inertia. The outcomes of the model are probabilistic. More research is needed to determine whether the model has any empirical validity.
