arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 1607.04342cs.SEcs.SI
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预测GitHub存储库的流行度

Predicting the Popularity of GitHub Repositories

Hudson Borges, Andre Hora, Marco Tulio Valente

摘要:

GitHub是世界上最大的源代码库。它提供了一个基于git的源代码管理平台,以及许多受社交网络启发的功能。例如,GitHub用户可以通过为项目添加星星来表示赞赏。因此,一个仓库的星级数量是衡量其受欢迎程度的直接标准。在本文中,我们使用多元线性回归来预测GitHub存储库的星数。这些预测对存储库所有者和客户都很有用,他们通常想知道他们的项目在竞争激烈的开源开发市场中的表现如何。在大规模分析中,我们发现,在使用过去六个月收到的恒星数量进行训练后,所提出的模型开始提供准确的预测。此外,对于增长缓慢的存储库和/或星级较少的存储库,建议使用特定的模型(使用来自具有相同增长趋势的存储库的数据生成)。最后,我们评估了预测存储库星级数量的能力,但它在GitHub存储库中的排名。我们发现预测和实际排名之间有很强的相关性(斯皮尔曼的rho大于0.95)。

英文摘要:

GitHub is the largest source code repository in the world. It provides a git-based source code management platform and also many features inspired by social networks. For example, GitHub users can show appreciation to projects by adding stars to them. Therefore, the number of stars of a repository is a direct measure of its popularity. In this paper, we use multiple linear regressions to predict the number of stars of GitHub repositories. These predictions are useful both to repository owners and clients, who usually want to know how their projects are performing in a competitive open source development market. In a large-scale analysis, we show that the proposed models start to provide accurate predictions after being trained with the number of stars received in the last six months. Furthermore, specific models---generated using data from repositories that share the same growth trends---are recommended for repositories with slow growth and/or for repositories with less stars. Finally, we evaluate the ability to predict not the number of stars of a repository but its rank among the GitHub repositories. We found a very strong correlation between predicted and real rankings (Spearman's rho greater than 0.95).

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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