We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.
The burgeoning need to sequester anthropogenic CO$_2$ for climate mitigation and the need for energy sustenance leading upto enhanced geothermal energy production has made it incredibly critical to study potential earthquakes due to fluid activity in the subsurface. These earthquakes result from reactivation of faults in the subsurface due to pore pressure perturbations. In this work, we provide a framework to model fault slip due to pore pressure change leading upto quantifying the earthquake magnitude.
Earthquake ruptures dynamically activate coseismic off-fault damage around fault cores. Systematic field observation efforts have shown the distribution of off-fault damage around main faults, while numerical modeling using elastic-plastic off-fault material models has demonstrated the evolution of coseismic off-fault damage during earthquake ruptures. Laboratory scale micro-earthquake experiments have pointed out the enhanced high-frequency radiation due to the coseismic off-fault damage. However, the detailed off-fault fracturing mechanisms, subsequent radiation and its contribution to the o…
Quantifying the Role of 3D Fault Geometry Complexities on Slow and Fast Earthquakes
Laboratoire de Géologie, Ecole Normale Superieure, CNRS-UMR 8538, PSL Research University（巴黎高等师范学院地质实验室）；Geo-Energy Lab - Gaznat Chair on Geo-Energy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, EPFL-ENAC-IIC-GEL（洛桑联邦理工学院能源地质实验室）；Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院地质与行星科学系）
Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic slip radiating seismic waves (i.e. earthquakes) or slow, silent slip (i.e. SSEs) is a fundamental point in the estimation of seismic hazard along subduction zones. On top of showing slower rupture propagation velocity than earthquakes, SSEs exhibit different scaling relationships, which could reflect either different physical mechanisms or an intriguing lack of…
Fault-zone fluids control effective normal stress and fault strength. While most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure distribution, geologists have documented fault valving behavior, that is, cyclic changes in pressure and unsteady fluid migration along faults. Here we quantify fault valving through 2-D antiplane shear simulations of earthquake sequences on a strike-slip fault with rate-and-state friction, upward Darcy flow along a permeable fault zone, and permeability evolution. Fluid overpressure develops during the interseismic period, when healing/sealing reduces fault per…
The dynamic energy balance is essential for earthquake studies. The energy balance approach is one of the most famous developments in fracture mechanics. To interpret seismological data, crack models and sliding on a frictional surface (fault) models are widely used. The macroscopically observable energy budget and the microscopic processes can be related through the fracture energy $G_c$. The fault surface morphology is the direct result of the microscopic processes near the crack tip or on the frictional interface. Here we show that the dynamic energy balance in earthquakes can be expressed …
Anticipating the maximum magnitude of injection-triggered earthquakes is highly valuable for the safe and efficient exploitation of geoenergies. The recent work by Li et al.(2021) reached the conclusion that unexpectedly large injection-triggered earthquakes are primarily caused by large pre-existing critical shear stresses on seismogenic faults. Also of great interest is the proposal of the ratio of fault slip to dilation as an index to anticipate the fault rupture energetics. However, their fluid injection experiments were conducted under fully drained conditions, where the fluid pressure di…
Earthquakes induced during hydraulic fracturing operations have occurred in a number of locales. However, in-situ studies aimed to discern the triggering mechanism remains exclusively statistical in their nature. Here, we calculate the fault slip-tendencies of eleven hydraulic fracturing induced earthquakes in a historically aseismic area using a recently constructed quantitative model for in-situ stresses. It is shown that the ambient pore pressures of the nearby Duvernay unconventional reservoirs can provide enough Pf triggering fault movement. The local fluid pressures acting on the fault c…
When a dynamic earthquake rupture propagates on a fault in the Earth's crust, the medium around the fault is dynamically damaged due to stress concentrations around the rupture tip. Recent field observations, laboratory experiments and canonical numerical models show the coseismic off-fault damage is essential to describe the coseismic off-fault deformation, rupture dynamics, radiation and overall energy budget. However, the numerical modeling of "localized" off-fault fractures remains a challenge mainly because of computational limitations and model formulation shortcomings. We thus developed…
Machine learning regression can predict macroscopic fault properties such as shear stress, friction, and time to failure using continuous records of fault zone acoustic emissions. Here we show that a similar approach is successful using event catalogs derived from the continuous data. Our methods are applicable to catalogs of arbitrary scale and magnitude of completeness. We investigate how machine learning regression from an event catalog of laboratory earthquakes performs as a function of the catalog magnitude of completeness. We find that strong model performance requires a sufficiently low…
Past severe earthquakes, such as Bam earthquake of 2003 and Tabas earthquake of 1978, have demonstrated that many cities in Iran are prone to be struck by near-fault earthquakes. Such earthquakes are impulsive in nature, and therefore, they are more destructive than the ordinary ground shaking. In the fourth edition of Iranian seismic code (Standard No. 2800), some changes, including a modification factor for the elastic acceleration response spectrum (EARS) have been recently recommended to reflect the effects of such probable near-fault earthquakes for the designing procedure. In this study,…
Dynamic restrengthening and fault heterogeneity explain megathrust earthquake complexity
Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校斯克里普斯海洋研究所地球物理与行星物理中心）
A major goal in earthquake physics is to derive a constitutive framework for fault slip that captures the dependence of shear strength on fault rheology, sliding velocity, and pore-fluid pressure. In this study, we present H-MEC (Hydro-Mechanical Earthquake Cycles), a newly-developed two-phase flow numerical code - which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow - to simulate how crustal stress and fluid pressure evolve during the earthquake cycle on a fluid-bearing fault structure. This unified, continuum-based model, incorporates a staggered finite difference-marker-in-cell (SF…
The subsequent series of responses to big events may exhibit a synchronicity of event number, frequency and energy release in different fault zones. This synchronicity is a reliable source for probing non-intuitive geological structures, assessing regional seismicity hazard map and even predicting the next big events. The synchronicity of main faults in the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is still unknown to us. We propose to examine the correlation of earthquake occurrence among different fault zones to indicate this synchronicity, and to obtain a preliminary understanding of ge…
Large continental earthquakes activate multiple faults in a complex fault system, dynamically inducing co-seismic damage around them. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake in the northern South Island of New Zealand has been reported as one of the most complex continental earthquakes ever documented1, which resulted in a distinctive on and off-fault deformation pattern. Previous geophysical studies confirm that the rupture globally propagated northward from epicenter. However, the exact rupture- propagation path is still not well understood because of the geometrical complexity, partly at sea, a…
One of the most suitable methods for modeling fully dynamic earthquake cycle simulations is the spectral boundary integral element method (sBIEM), which takes advantage of the fast Fourier transform (FFT) to make a complex numerical dynamic rupture tractable. However, this method has the serious drawback of requiring a flat fault geometry due to the FFT approach. Here we present an analytical formulation that extends the sBIEM to a mildly non-planar fault. We start from a regularized boundary element method and apply a small-slope approximation of the fault geometry. Making this assumption, it…
On 15 May 2020 an MWW 6.5 earthquake occurred beneath the Monte Cristo Range in the Mina Deflection region of western Nevada. Rapid deployment of eight temporary seismic stations enables detailed analysis of its productive and slowly decaying aftershock sequence (p=0.8) which included ~18,000 autodetected events in 3.5 months. Double-difference, waveform-based relative relocation of 16,714 earthquakes reveals a complex network of faults, many of which cross the inferred 35-km long east-northeast-striking, left-lateral mainshock rupture. Seismicity aligns with left-lateral, right-lateral, and n…
Forecasting fault failure is a fundamental but elusive goal in earthquake science. Here we show that by listening to the acoustic signal emitted by a laboratory fault, machine learning can predict the time remaining before it fails with great accuracy. These predictions are based solely on the instantaneous physical characteristics of the acoustical signal, and do not make use of its history. Surprisingly, machine learning identifies a signal emitted from the fault zone previously thought to be low-amplitude noise that enables failure forecasting throughout the laboratory quake cycle. We hypot…
Aftershocks of the 2012 Off-Coast of Sumatra Earthquake Sequence exhibit a complex and diffuse spatial distribution. The first-order complexity in aftershock distribution is clear and well beyond the influence of typical earthquake location uncertainty. The sequence included rupture of multiple fault segments, spatially separated. We use surface-wave based relative centroid locations to examine whether, at the small scale, the distribution of the aftershocks was influenced by location errors. Surface-wave based relative location has delineated precise oceanic transform fault earthquake locatio…
The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) has produced numerous major earthquakes. After decades of quiescence, the $\rm{M_w}$ 6.8 Elazığ earthquake (January 24, 2020) has recently reminded us that the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) is also capable of producing significant earthquakes. To better estimate the seismic hazard associated with these two faults, we jointly invert Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and GPS data to image the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling along the eastern part of both the North and East Anatolian Faults. We perform the inversion in a Bayesian framework…
Imaging the anelastic deformation within the crust and lithosphere using surface geophysical data remains a significant challenge in part due to the wide range of physical processes operating at different depths and to various levels of localization that they embody. Models of Earth's elastic properties from seismological imaging combined with geodetic modeling may form the basis of comprehensive rheological models of Earth's interior. However, representing the structural complexity of faults and shear zones in numerical models of deformation still constitutes a major difficulty. Here, we pres…
During an earthquake, part of the released elastic strain energy is dissipated within the slip zone by frictional and fracturing processes, the rest being radiated away via elastic waves. Frictional heating thus plays a crucial role in the energy budget of earthquakes, but, to date, it cannot be resolved by seismological data. Here we investigate the dynamics of laboratory earthquakes by measuring frictional heat dissipated during the propagation of shear instabilities at typical seismogenic depth stress conditions. We perform, for the first time, the full energy budget of earthquake rupture a…
A major part of the seismicity striking the Mediterranean area and other regions worldwide is hosted in carbonate rocks. Recent examples are the destructive earthquakes of L'Aquila Mw 6.1 2009 and Norcia Mw 6.5 2016 in Central Italy. Surprisingly, within this region, fast (\approx 3km/s) and destructive seismic ruptures coexist with slow (maximum 10 m/s) and non-destructive rupture phenomena. Despite of its relevance for seismic hazard studies, the transitions from fault creep to slow and fast seismic rupture propagation are still poorly constrained by seismological and laboratory observations…
A rate-and-state friction based criterion for the probability of earthquake fault jumps
Institut de Radioprotection et de sûreté Nucléaire（法国核辐射防护与核安全研究所）；Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, IRD, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, Géoazur（蔚蓝海岸大学、法国国家科学研究中心、法国海外发展署、蔚蓝海岸观测台、地球与环境科学实验室）；CNRS-INSU, Institut des Sciences de la Terre Paris, Sorbonne Université, ISTeP UMR 7193（法国国家科学研究中心-地球科学研究与监测研究所、巴黎地球科学研究所、索邦大学、地球物理学实验室）；Laboratoire de Géologie, Département de Géosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Université, CNRS UMR 8538（高等师范学校地质学系、巴黎文理研究大学、法国国家科学研究中心地球科学实验室）；Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire et Radioprotection（法国核安全和辐射防护管理局）；Department of Earth Sciences, La Sapienza University of Rome（罗马第一大学地球科学系）；Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院地质与行星科学系）
Seismotectonics and Slip Behavior of a Submarine Plate Boundary Fault from Seismicity Repeaters and Tomography using a high-resolution earthquake catalog from machine learning
Large-scale earthquake sequence simulations using the boundary element method (BEM) incur extreme computational costs through multiplying a dense matrix with a slip rate vector. Hierarchical matrices (H-matrices) have often been used to accelerate this multiplication. However, the complexity of the structures of the H-matrices and the communication costs between processors limit their scalability, and they therefore cannot be used efficiently in distributed memory computer systems. Lattice H-matrices have recently been proposed as a tool to improve the parallel scalability of H-matrices. In th…
In this paper, we propose a stochastic dynamic model for earthquake rupture and suggest that the Langevin equation of frictions may be used for interpreting the slip distributions of rupture processes in earthquakes. The steady-state solution of the derived Langevin equation analytically attains the truncated exponential (TEX) distribution that is empirically characterized in many rupture models of earthquake events worldwide, as demonstrated by Thingbaijam and Mai (2016, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120150291). Our proposed stochastic dynamic faulting model for earthquake rupture intrinsically in…
The North Anatolian Fault experienced large earthquakes with 250-400 years recurrence time. In the Marmara Sea region, the 1999 (Mw = 7.4) and the 1912 (Mw = 7.4) earthquake ruptures bound the Central Marmara Sea fault segment. Using historical-instrumental seismicity catalogue and paleoseismic results (~2000-year database), the mapped fault segments, fault kinematic and GPS data, we compute the paleoseismic-seismic moment rate and geodetic moment rate. A clear discrepancy appears between the moment rates and implies a significant delay in the seismic slip along the fault in the Marmara Sea. T…
Coupled Transient Processes Govern Intraplate Earthquake Swarm Evolution: Insights from the 2019-2020 Palghar Sequence
National Institute of Science Education and Research（国家科学教育与研究中心）；Homi Bhabha National Institute（霍米·巴巴国立研究所）；Geosciences Division, Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organisation（印度空间研究组织太空应用中心地球科学部）；Laboratoire de Géologie, École Normale Supérieure, CNRS UMR 8538, PSL Research University（法国国家科研中心8538联合实验室，巴黎高等师范学院，PSL研究大学地质实验室）；Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology（瓦迪亚喜马拉雅地质研究所）；CSIR–National Geophysical Research Institute（印度科学工业研究理事会国家地球物理研究所）
Università La Sapienza（罗马第一大学）；The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
Earthquake forecasting and prediction have long and in some cases sordid histories but recent work has rekindled interest based on advances in early warning, hazard assessment for induced seismicity and successful prediction of laboratory earthquakes. In the lab, frictional stick-slip events provide an analog for earthquakes and the seismic cycle. Labquakes are ideal targets for machine learning (ML) because they can be produced in long sequences under controlled conditions. Recent works show that ML can predict several aspects of labquakes using fault zone acoustic emissions. Here, we general…
Self-Arresting and Runaway Earthquakes:Nucleation, Propagation, Gutenberg-Richter law and Dragon-King Events
Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学前沿交叉科学研究院风险分析与预测管理研究所）；Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学地球与空间科学系）；School of Earth and Space Science and Technology, Wuhan University（武汉大学地球与空间科学技术学院）
