非均衡视角下的粮食安全韧性研究
A non-equilibrium formulation of food security resilience
AI总结：
本文提出非均衡框架量化粮食安全韧性，基于长期趋势不恶化和冲击影响不持续的定义，分析161国1961-2011年人均千卡供应数据，发现韧性国家不必然具备高摄入量或低波动性。
摘要：
韧性，即从不利事件中恢复的能力，对粮食安全至关重要，尤其在贫困国家，经济、环境和健康冲击常威胁基本需求。本文引入一个通用框架，基于简单定义：单位若长期粮食安全趋势不恶化且冲击影响不持续则具韧性。该方法适用于任何有高频时间序列数据的粮食安全变量，适用于任何分析单位，并在快速变化的环境中特别有效。本文以161国1961-2011年人均千卡供应数据示例，发现韧性国家不必然具备高摄入量或低波动性，因此粮食安全政策需兼顾即时福利水平和长期福利动态。
英文摘要：
Resilience, the ability to recover from adverse events ("shocks"), is of fundamental importance to food security. This is especially true in poor countries, where basic needs are frequently threatened by economic, environmental, and health shocks. An empirically sound formalization of the concept of food security resilience, however, is lacking. Here we introduce a general framework for quantifying resilience based on a simple definition: a unit is resilient if $(a)$ its long-term food security trend is not deteriorating and $(b)$ the effects of shocks on this trend do not persist over time. Our approach can be applied to any food security variable for which high-frequency time-series data is available, can accommodate any unit of analysis (e.g., individuals, households, countries), and is especially useful in rapidly changing contexts wherein standard equilibrium-based economic models are ineffective. We illustrate our method with an analysis of per capita kilocalorie availability for 161 countries between 1961 and 2011. We find that resilient countries are not necessarily those that are characterized by high levels or less volatile fluctuations of kilocalorie intake. Accordingly, food security policies and programs will need to be tailored not only to welfare levels at any one time, but also to long-run welfare dynamics.
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