确定流星体质量指数的可重复方法
A reproducible method to determine the meteoroid mass index
摘要：
上下文流星体质量指数的确定对于流星体群的通量测量和演变研究至关重要。然而，不同的作者使用不同的方法来拟合观测数据，使得结果难以重现，并且难以证明由此产生的不确定性。实际的物理不确定性通常比报告的值高一个数量级。目的。我们的目标是开发一种全自动的方法，将测量流星体质量指数和相关的不确定性。我们验证我们的方法在大型雷达和光学数据集和比较结果，以获得最佳估计的真实流星体质量指数。方法.使用MultiNest，一个贝叶斯推断工具，计算证据和探索参数空间，我们在四维变量空间（$a,b,X_1,X_2$）中搜索累积数量与质量分布的最佳拟合。我们探索流星回波分布的偏差，使用光学流星数据作为校准数据集，以建立测量的质量指数值的系统偏移。结果我们对散在流星体复合体的平均去偏质量指数的最佳估计是$s=-2.10 \pm 0.08$，该指数是用适合于质量范围$10^{-3} > \mathrm{m} > 10^{-5}$ g的雷达测得的。除去流星雨后，$10^{-1} > \mathrm{m} > 10^{-3}$ g范围内的光学数据产生了$s=-2.08 \pm 0.08$。我们发现Grun等人（1985）使用的质量指数比我们在$10^{-4} < m < 10^{-1}$ g范围内测量的质量指数大得多。
英文摘要：
Context. The determination of meteoroid mass indices is central to flux measurements and evolutionary studies of meteoroid populations. However, different authors use different approaches to fit observed data, making results difficult to reproduce and the resulting uncertainties difficult to justify. The real, physical, uncertainties are usually an order of magnitude higher than the reported values. Aims. We aim to develop a fully automated method that will measure meteoroid mass indices and associated uncertainty. We validate our method on large radar and optical datasets and compare results to obtain a best estimate of the true meteoroid mass index. Methods. Using MultiNest, a Bayesian inference tool that calculates the evidence and explores the parameter space, we search for the best fit of cumulative number vs. mass distributions in a four-dimensional space of variables ($a,b,X_1,X_2$). We explore biases in meteor echo distributions using optical meteor data as a calibration dataset to establish the systematic offset in measured mass index values. Results. Our best estimate for the average de-biased mass index for the sporadic meteoroid complex, as measured by radar appropriate to the mass range $10^{-3} > \mathrm{m} > 10^{-5}$ g, was $s=-2.10 \pm 0.08$. Optical data in the $10^{-1} > \mathrm{m} > 10^{-3}$ g range, with the shower meteors removed, produced $s=-2.08 \pm 0.08$. We find the mass index used by Grun et al. 1985 is substantially larger than we measure in the $10^{-4} < m < 10^{-1}$ g range.
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