The theme of this article is the sampling of cluster and iterated cluster point processes. It is partially a review, mainly of the Brix-Kendall exact sampling method for cluster point processes and its adaptation by Møller and Rasmussen to Hawkes branching point processes on the real line with light-tail fertility rate are reviewed. The main novel aspect of this review is the extension to non-Poissonian germ point processes. For this, a slight adaptation is needed. A formal proof via Laplace transforms of the validity of the method in terms of general clusters that are not necessarily point processes fits this purpose and allows to include the exact sampling of Boolean models.
We present a perfect sampling algorithm for Gibbs point processes, based on the partial rejection sampling of Guo et al. (2017). Our particular focus is on pairwise interaction processes, penetrable spheres mixture models and area-interaction processes, with a finite interaction range. For an interaction range $2r$ of the target process, the proposed algorithm can generate a perfect sample with $O(\log(1/r))$ expected running time complexity, provided that the intensity of the points is not too high.
In this paper, we introduce a new method of sampling from transition densities of diffusion processes including those unknown in closed forms by solving a partial differential equation satisfied by the quotient of transition densities. We demonstrate the performance of the developed method on processes with known densities and the obtained results are consistent with theoretical values. The method is applied to Wright-Fisher diffusions owing to their importance in population genetics in studying interaction networks inherent in genetic data. Diffusion processes with bounded drift and non degen…
We show that exact sampling of the first passage event can be done for a Levy process with unbounded variation, if the process can be embedded in a subordinated standard Brownian motion. By sampling a series of first exit events of the Brownian motion and first passage events of the subordinator, the first passage event of interest can be obtained. The sampling of the first exit time and pre-exit location of the Brownian motion may be of independent interest.
A class of Fleming-Viot processes with decaying sampling rates and $α$-stable motions that correspond to distributions with growing populations are introduced and analyzed. Almost sure long-time scaling limits for these processes are developed, addressing the question of long-time population distribution for growing populations. Asymptotics in higher orders are investigated. Convergence of particle location occupation and inhabitation time processes are also addressed and related by way of the historical process. The basic results and techniques allow general Feller motion/mutation and may app…
This paper deals with the question of conditional sampling and prediction for the class of stationary max-stable processes which allow for a mixed moving maxima representation. We develop an exact procedure for conditional sampling using the Poisson point process structure of such processes. For explicit calculations we restrict ourselves to the one-dimensional case and use a finite number of shape functions satisfying some regularity conditions. For more general shape functions approximation techniques are presented. Our algorithm is applied to the Smith process and the Brown-Resnick process.…
As non-institutive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) techniques have gained growing popularity among researchers, we here provide a comprehensive review of major sampling strategies for the least squares based PCE. Traditional sampling methods, such as Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, quasi-Monte Carlo, optimal design of experiments (ODE), Gaussian quadratures, as well as more recent techniques, such as coherence-optimal and randomized quadratures are discussed. We also propose a hybrid sampling method, dubbed alphabetic-coherence-optimal, that employs the so-called alphabetic optimality criteria …
In this paper we develop the first perfect sampling algorithm for queues with Hawkes input, i.e. single-server queues with Hawkes arrivals and i.i.d. service times of general distribution. In addition to the stability condition, we also assume the excitation function of the Hawkes process has a light tail and the service time has finite moment generating function in the neighborhood of the origin. In this procedure, we also propose a new perfect sampling algorithm for Hawkes process with improved computational efficiency compared to the existing algorithm. Theoretical analysis and numerical te…
Under a complex technical condition, similar to such used in extreme value theory, we find the rate q(ε)^{-1} at which a stochastic process with stationary increments ξshould be sampled, for the sampled process ξ(\lfloor\cdot /q(ε)\rfloor q(ε)) to deviate from ξby at most ε, with a given probability, asymptotically as ε\downarrow0. The canonical application is to discretization errors in computer simulation of stochastic processes.
In this paper we review some results on time-homogeneous birth-death processes. Specifically, for truncated birth-death processes with two absorbing or two reflecting endpoints, we recall the necessary and sufficient conditions on the transition rates such that the transition probabilities satisfy a spatial symmetry relation. The latter leads to simple expressions for first-passage-time densities and avoiding transition probabilities. This approach is thus thoroughly extended to the case of bilateral birth-death processes, even in the presence of catastrophes, and to the case of a two-dimensio…
We extend the idea of tempering stable Levy processes to tempering more general classes of Levy processes. We show that the original process can be decomposed into the sum of the tempered process and an independent point process of large jumps. We then use this to set up a rejection sampling algorithm for sampling from the tempered process. A small scale simulation study is given to help understand the performance of this algorithm.
High-frequency sampled multivariate continuous time autoregressive moving average processes are investigated. We obtain asymptotic expansion for the spectral density of the sampled MCARMA process $(Y_{nΔ})_{n \in \mathbb{Z}}$ as $Δ\downarrow 0$, where $(Y_t)_{t \in \mathbb{R}}$ is an MCARMA process. We show that the properly filtered process is a vector moving average process, and determine the asymptotic moving average representation of it, thus generalizing the results by Brockwell et al. in the univariate case to the multivariate model. The determination of the moving average representation…
Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change of measure which is realized by adding a control force to the original dynamics. For certain exponential type expectation, the corresponding control force of the optimal change of measure leads to a zero-variance estimator and is related to the solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellmann equation. We focus on certain diffu- sions with both slow and fast variable…
Given a marked renewal point process (assuming that the marks are i.i.d.) we say that an unbounded region is stable if it contains finitely many points of the point process with probability one. In this paper we provide algorithms that allow to sample these finitely many points efficiently. We explain how exact simulation of the steady-state measure valued state descriptor of the infinite server queue follows as a simple corollary of our algorithms. We provide numerical evidence supporting that our algorithms are not only theoretically sound but also practical. Finally, having simulation optim…
Topological measurements are increasingly being accepted as an important tool for quantifying complex structures. In many applications, these structures can be expressed as nodal domains of real-valued functions and are obtained only through experimental observation or numerical simulations. In both cases, the data on which the topological measurements are based are derived via some form of finite sampling or discretization. In this paper, we present a probabilistic approach to quantifying the number of components of generalized nodal domains of nonhomogeneous random processes on the real line…
An important family of stochastic processes arising in many areas of applied probability is the class of Lévy processes. Generally, such processes are not simulatable especially for those with infinite activity. In practice, it is common to approximate them by truncating the jumps at some cut-off size $\varepsilon$ ($\varepsilon\searrow 0$). This procedure leads us to consider a simulatable compound Poisson process. This paper first introduces, for this setting, the statistical Romberg method to improve the complexity of the classical Monte Carlo one. Roughly speaking, we use many sample paths…
In this note we consider sampling from (non-homogeneous) strongly Rayleigh probability measures. As an important corollary, we obtain a fast mixing Markov Chain sampler for Determinantal Point Processes.
This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms have resulted in poor performance and the main contribution of the paper is the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms using subsolutions. The dynamics of the jump processes causes the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi equations to have an intricate state-dependence, which makes the design of efficient algorithms difficult. We provide theoretical resu…
In this paper we address the problem of rare-event simulation for heavy-tailed Lévy processes with infinite activities. We propose a strongly efficient importance sampling algorithm that builds upon the sample path large deviations for heavy-tailed Lévy processes, stick-breaking approximation of extrema of Lévy processes, and the randomized debiasing Monte Carlo scheme. The proposed importance sampling algorithm can be applied to a broad class of Lévy processes and exhibits significant improvements in efficiency when compared to crude Monte-Carlo method in our numerical experiments.
We develop generic and efficient importance sampling estimators for Monte Carlo evaluation of prices of single- and multi-asset European and path-dependent options in asset price models driven by Lévy processes, extending earlier works which focused on the Black-Scholes and continuous stochastic volatility models. Using recent results from the theory of large deviations on the path space for processes with independent increments, we compute an explicit asymptotic approximation for the variance of the pay-off under an Esscher-style change of measure. Minimizing this asymptotic variance using co…
Let $α\in(0,2)$ and $d\in\mathbb{N}$. Consider the following stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by $α$-stable process in $\mathbb{R}^d$: $$ dX_t=b(X_t)dt+σ(X_{t-})d L^α_t, \quad X_0=x\in\mathbb{R}^d, $$ where $b:\mathbb{R}^d\to\mathbb{R}^d$ and $σ:\mathbb{R}^d\to\mathbb{R}^d\otimes\mathbb{R}^d$ are locally $γ$-Hölder continuous with $γ\in(0\vee(1-α)^+,1]$, $L^α_t$ is a $d$-dimensional rotationally invariant $α$-stable process. Under some dissipative and non-degenerate assumptions on $b,σ$, we show the $V$-uniformly exponential ergodicity for the semigroup $P_t$ associated with $(X_t…
Adaptive importance sampling techniques are widely known for the Gaussian setting of Brownian driven diffusions. In this work, we want to extend them to jump processes. Our approach relies on a change of the jump intensity combined with the standard exponential tilting for the Brownian motion. The free parameters of our framework are optimized using sample average approximation techniques. We illustrate the efficiency of our method on the valuation of financial derivatives in several jump models.
The harmonizable Piranashvili-type stochastic processes are approximated by finite time shifted average sampling sums. Explicit truncation error upper bounds are established. Various corollaries and special cases are discussed.
We prove an ergodic theorem for the rotation number of the composition of a sequence os stationary random homeomorphisms in $S^{1}$. In particular, the concept of rotation number of a matrix $g\in Gl^{+}(2,{\R})$ can be generalized to a product of a sequence of stationary random matrices in $Gl^{+}(2,{\R})$. In this particular case this result provides a counter-part of the Osseledec's multiplicative ergodic theorem which guarantees the existence of Lyapunov exponents. A random sampling theorem is then proved to show that the concept we propose is consistent by discretization in time with the …
UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
Strongly Rayleigh distributions are natural generalizations of product and determinantal probability distributions and satisfy strongest form of negative dependence properties. We show that the "natural" Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) is rapidly mixing in the support of a {\em homogeneous} strongly Rayleigh distribution. As a byproduct, our proof implies Markov chains can be used to efficiently generate approximate samples of a $k$-determinantal point process. This answers an open question raised by Deshpande and Rademacher.
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Washington University in St. Louis（圣路易斯华盛顿大学）
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are an important concept in random matrix theory and combinatorics. They have also recently attracted interest in the study of numerical methods for machine learning, as they offer an elegant "missing link" between independent Monte Carlo sampling and deterministic evaluation on regular grids, applicable to a general set of spaces. This is helpful whenever an algorithm explores to reduce uncertainty, such as in active learning, Bayesian optimization, reinforcement learning, and marginalization in graphical models. To draw samples from a DPP in practice, exi…
In this article, we propose several quantization-based stratified sampling methods to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo simulation. Theoretical aspects of stratification lead to a strong link between optimal quadratic quantization and the variance reduction that can be achieved with stratified sampling. We first put the emphasis on the consistency of quantization for partitioning the state space in stratified sampling methods in both finite and infinite dimensional cases. We show that the proposed quantization-based strata design has uniform efficiency among the class of Lipschitz continuou…
The article starts with generalizations of some classical results and new truncation error upper bounds in the sampling theorem for bandlimited stochastic processes. Then, it investigates $L_p([0,T])$ and uniform approximations of $φ$-sub-Gaussian random processes by finite time sampling sums. Explicit truncation error upper bounds are established. Some specifications of the general results for which the assumptions can be easily verified are given. Direct analytical methods are employed to obtain the results.
We design fast algorithms for repeatedly sampling from strongly Rayleigh distributions, which include random spanning tree distributions and determinantal point processes. For a graph $G=(V, E)$, we show how to approximately sample uniformly random spanning trees from $G$ in $\widetilde{O}(\lvert V\rvert)$ time per sample after an initial $\widetilde{O}(\lvert E\rvert)$ time preprocessing. For a determinantal point process on subsets of size $k$ of a ground set of $n$ elements, we show how to approximately sample in $\widetilde{O}(k^ω)$ time after an initial $\widetilde{O}(nk^{ω-1})$ time prep…
Subset selection problems ask for a small, diverse yet representative subset of the given data. When pairwise similarities are captured by a kernel, the determinants of submatrices provide a measure of diversity or independence of items within a subset. Matroid theory gives another notion of independence, thus giving rise to optimization and sampling questions about Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) under matroid constraints. Partition constraints, as a special case, arise naturally when incorporating additional labeling or clustering information, besides the kernel, in DPPs. Finding the ma…
