用极值理论确定类卡林顿耀斑的概率
Using Extreme Value Theory for Determining the Probability of Carrington-Like Solar Flares
摘要：
空间气象事件可对卫星、电网、卫星导航系统和人类健康产生不利影响。因此，极端空间天气已被列入联合王国和其他国家的风险登记册。极端空间气象事件就其性质而言很少发生，因此需要使用统计方法来确定其发生概率。空间天气事件可由一系列自然现象来表征，如X射线（太阳）耀斑、太阳高能粒子通量、日冕物质抛射和各种地球物理指数（Dst、Kp、F10.7）。本文用极值理论研究了极端太阳耀斑的发生概率。以前的工作假设太阳耀斑的分布遵循幂律。然而，由于概率分布函数尾部的不确定性，这种方法可能导致对此类事件的返回时间的不良估计。使用EVT和GOES的X射线通量数据，它表明，预期的150年的回报水平约为X60耀斑，而卡林顿一样的耀斑是一个在100年的事件。它还表明，EVT的结果是一致的耀斑数据从开普勒太空望远镜任务。
英文摘要：
Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. As a consequence, extreme space weather has been added to the UK and other national risk registers. By their very nature, extreme space weather events occur rarely and, therefore, statistical methods are required to determine the probability of their occurrence. Space weather events can be characterised by a number of natural phenomena such as X-ray (solar) flares, solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes, coronal mass ejections and various geophysical indices (Dst, Kp, F10.7). In this paper extreme value theory (EVT) is used to investigate the probability of extreme solar flares. Previous work has assumed that the distribution of solar flares follows a power law. However such an approach can lead to a poor estimation of the return times of such events due to uncertainties in the tails of the probability distribution function. Using EVT and GOES X-ray flux data it is shown that the expected 150-year return level is approximately an X60 flare whilst a Carrington-like flare is a one in a 100-year event. It is also shown that the EVT results are consistent with flare data from the Kepler space telescope mission.
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