太阳耀斑事件的极值分析
Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events
摘要：
太阳耀斑等空间天气事件可能对地球或近地轨道上的生命和基础设施造成危害。在本文中，我们采用极值理论（EVT）来模拟极端的太阳耀斑事件; EVT提供了适当的工具，用于研究和估计外推到已经观察到的范围之外的概率。在过去，这种现象被建模为遵循幂律，这可能会由于高估而对此类事件做出较差的估计。研究中使用的数据是来自NOAA/GOES的X射线通量，并计算了卡林顿或万圣节等事件的预期回报水平，其结果是现有数据预测类似事件分别发生在110年和38年。
英文摘要：
Space weather events such as solar flares can be harmful for life and infrastructure on earth or in near-earth orbit. In this paper we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to model extreme solar flare events; EVT offers the appropriate tools for the study and estimation of probabilities for extrapolation to ranges outside of those that have already been observed. In the past such phenomena have been modelled as following a power law which may gives poor estimates of such events due to overestimation. The data used in the study were X-ray fluxes from NOAA/GOES and the expected return levels for Carrington or Halloween like events were calculated with the outcome that the existing data predict similar events happening in 110 and 38 years respectively.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
