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arXiv 1601.02103astro-ph.EP
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小行星偏转演示任务中的不确定性处理:NEOTwIST

Dealing with Uncertainties in Asteroid Deflection Demonstration Missions: NEOTwIST

Siegfried Eggl, Daniel Hestroffer, Juan L. Cano, Javier Martin Avila, Line Drube, Alan W. Harris, Albert Falke, Ulrich Johann, Kilian Engel, Stephen R. Schwartz, Patrick Michel

摘要:

近地小行星偏转飞行任务将遇到目标物体物理和轨道参数方面不可忽视的不确定性。为了可靠地评估未来减少撞击威胁的行动,必须对这种不确定性进行量化,并将其纳入飞行任务设计。偏转演示任务的实施提供了很好的机会来测试我们目前对偏转相关不确定性及其后果的理解,例如,关于小行星表面的动力学撞击。在这篇文章中,我们讨论了NEOTwIST小行星偏转演示概念中不确定性的作用,NEOTwIST小行星偏转演示概念是在近地天体盾牌项目框架内详细阐述的一种低成本动力撞击器设计。NEOTwIST的目的是改变一个已知的、特征明确的近地天体的自旋状态,在本例中是小行星(25143)丝川。通过立方体卫星追踪器和飞越飞行器研究了撞击坑和喷出物等快速事件。例如,小行星的自转和轨道的长期变化可以通过地面观测来评估。我们发现,这样一个任务确实可以提供有价值的限制缓解相关参数。此外,这里提出的动能撞击情景可以在今后20年内实施,而不会威胁到地球的安全。

英文摘要:

Deflection missions to near-Earth asteroids will encounter non-negligible uncertainties in the physical and orbital parameters of the target object. In order to reliably assess future impact threat mitigation operations such uncertainties have to be quantified and incorporated into the mission design. The implementation of deflection demonstration missions offers the great opportunity to test our current understanding of deflection relevant uncertainties and their consequences, e.g., regarding kinetic impacts on asteroid surfaces. In this contribution, we discuss the role of uncertainties in the NEOTwIST asteroid deflection demonstration concept, a low-cost kinetic impactor design elaborated in the framework of the NEOShield project. The aim of NEOTwIST is to change the spin state of a known and well characterized near-Earth object, in this case the asteroid (25143) Itokawa. Fast events such as the production of the impact crater and ejecta are studied via cube-sat chasers and a flyby vehicle. Long term changes, for instance, in the asteroid's spin and orbit, can be assessed using ground based observations. We find that such a mission can indeed provide valuable constraints on mitigation relevant parameters. Furthermore, the here proposed kinetic impact scenarios can be implemented within the next two decades without threatening Earth's safety.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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