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arXiv 1512.08061cs.SI
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社会互动的时间规律性:预测手机通话

On Temporal Regularity in Social Interactions: Predicting Mobile Phone Calls

Mehwish Nasim, Aimal Rextin, Numair Khan, Muhammad Muddassir Malik

摘要:

在本文中,我们使用机器学习的方法来预测呼出的手机通话。我们分析手机用户的活动在多大程度上是可预测的。前提是,移动电话用户在与大多数联系人的交互中表现出时间规律性。在社会学语境中,大多数社会互动都有相当可靠的时间规律性。如果我们将这种行为扩展到移动电话上的交互,我们预计呼叫者与被呼叫者的交互不仅仅是随机性的结果,而是呈现出一种时间模式。为此,我们测试了我们的方法在匿名的手机使用数据集收集专门用于分析时间模式的手机通信。数据包括783个用户和12,000多个呼叫者-被叫者对。结果表明,用户的历史呼叫模式可以预测未来的呼叫与合理的准确性。

英文摘要:

In this paper we predict outgoing mobile phone calls using a machine learning approach. We analyze to which extent the activity of mobile phone users is predictable. The premise is that mobile phone users exhibit temporal regularity in their interactions with majority of their contacts. In the sociological context, most social interactions have fairly reliable temporal regularity. If we quantify the extension of this behavior to interactions on mobile phones we expect that caller-callee interaction is not merely a result of randomness, rather it exhibits a temporal pattern. To this end, we tested our approach on an anonymized mobile phone usage dataset collected specifically for analyzing temporal patterns in mobile phone communication. The data consists of 783 users and more than 12,000 caller-callee pairs. The results show that users' historic calling patterns can predict future calls with reasonable accuracy.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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