用标准化降水指数对印度地区气象干旱变化的时空分析
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Meteorological Drought Variability in the Indian Region Using Standardized Precipitation Index
摘要：
利用印度气象局1951 ~ 2007年6 ~ 9月网格（1°纬x 1°经）逐日降水资料，建立了标准化降水指数（SPI）的月时间序列。对SPI进行了分析，以研究该国干旱发生的空间和时间模式。由SPI得到的不同年份的干旱面积（AUD）的地理分布揭示了2002年干旱的独特性，7月份的干旱范围很广。对澳元进行的Mann-Kendal趋势分析和基于移动平均线的趋势表明，7月份澳元呈上升趋势。在最近十年中，中度干旱频率的地区有所增加。根据干旱持续分数（DPS）对年份进行的排序表明，1987年是该国最严重的干旱年份。研究结果揭示了印度干旱气候学的各个方面。对更精细空间分辨率的SPI进行类似分析，并将其与作物生产联系起来，将有助于从经济角度量化干旱的影响。
英文摘要：
Grid (1° latitude x 1° longitude) level daily rainfall data over India from June to September for the years 1951 to 2007, generated by India Meteorological Department, was analyzed to build monthly time series of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Analysis of SPI was done to study the spatial and temporal patterns of drought occurrence in the country. Geographic spread of SPI derived Area under Dryness (AUD) in different years revealed the uniqueness of 2002 drought with wide spread dryness in July. Mann-Kendal trend analysis and moving average based trends performed on AUD indicated increasing trend in July. The area under moderate drought frequency has increased in the most recent decade. Ranking of years based on Drought Persistency Score (DPS) indicated that the year 1987 was the severe-most drought year in the country. The results of the study have revealed various aspects of drought climatology in India. A similar analysis with the SPI of finer spatial resolution and relating it to crop production would be useful in quantifying the impact of drought in economic terms.
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