arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 1509.01477physics.soc-phcond-mat.stat-mechcs.SI
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在线社会系统中发现者的识别与建模

Identification and modeling of discoverers in online social systems

Matus Medo, Manuel S. Mariani, An Zeng, Yi-Cheng Zhang

摘要:

个体的动力学对于理解社会系统的演化至关重要。大多数现有的模型都假设,从社交网络到电子商务,不同系统中的个体都倾向于已经流行的东西。我们开发了一个时间感知分析框架,该框架表明,当个人在在线社交系统中做出选择时,例如购买哪种商品,其中一小部分人在实际流行之前很久就一直成功地发现流行商品。我们认为,这些用户,我们称之为发现者,是从根本上不同于以前已知的意见领袖,有影响力的,和创新者。我们使用建议的框架来证明发现者存在于广泛的系统中。一旦确定,它们可以用来预测项目的未来成功。我们提出了一个网络模型,再现了在真实数据中观察到的发现模式。此外,模型产生的数据对经典的排名算法提出了根本性的挑战,这些算法忽略了链接创建的时间,因此无法区分数据中的发现者和普通用户。我们的研究结果为社会系统中精细时间模式的定性和定量研究打开了大门,并对网络建模和算法设计产生了深远的影响。

英文摘要:

The dynamics of individuals is of essential importance for understanding the evolution of social systems. Most existing models assume that individuals in diverse systems, ranging from social networks to e-commerce, all tend to what is already popular. We develop an analytical time-aware framework which shows that when individuals make choices -- which item to buy, for example -- in online social systems, a small fraction of them is consistently successful in discovering popular items long before they actually become popular. We argue that these users, whom we refer to as discoverers, are fundamentally different from the previously known opinion leaders, influentials, and innovators. We use the proposed framework to demonstrate that discoverers are present in a wide range of systems. Once identified, they can be used to predict the future success of items. We propose a network model which reproduces the discovery patterns observed in the real data. Furthermore, data produced by the model pose a fundamental challenge to classical ranking algorithms which neglect the time of link creation and thus fail to discriminate between discoverers and ordinary users in the data. Our results open the door to qualitative and quantitative study of fine temporal patterns in social systems and have far-reaching implications for network modeling and algorithm design.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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