Coexistence of two dengue virus serotypes and forecasting for Madeira island

Dengue in Madeira Island

Dengue is a vector-borne disease and 40% of world population is at risk. Dengue transcends international borders and can be found in tropical and subtropical regions around the world, predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas. A model for dengue disease transmission, composed by mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics, is presented in this study. The data is from Madeira, a Portuguese island, where an unprecedented outbreak was detected on October 2012. The aim of this work is to simulate the repercussions of the control measures in the fight of the disease…

Estimating the Attack Ratio of Dengue Epidemics under Time-varying Force of Infection using Aggregated Notification Data

Quantifying the attack ratio of disease is key to epidemiological inference and Public Health planning. For multi-serotype pathogens, however, different levels of serotype-specific immunity make it difficult to assess the population at risk. In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for estimation of the attack ratio of an epidemic and the initial fraction of susceptibles using aggregated incidence data. We derive the probability distribution of the effective reproductive number, R t , and use MCMC to obtain posterior distributions of the parameters of a single-strain SIR transmission model w…

Virus Antibody Dynamics in Primary and Secondary Dengue Infections

Dengue viral infections show unique infection patterns arising from its four serot- ypes, (DENV-1,2,3,4). Its effects range from simple fever in primary infections to potentially fatal secondary infections. We analytically and numerically analyse virus dynamics and humoral response in a host during primary and secondary dengue infection for long periods using micro-epidemic models. The models presented here incorporate time delays, antibody dependent enhancement (ADE), a dynamic switch and a correlation factor between different DENV serotypes. We find that the viral load goes down to undetecta…

登革热的网络传播随着地方流行性增加而下降：1993 - 2012年哥斯达黎加各县经气候调整的定向传播

Network amplification of dengue declines as endemicity rises: climate-adjusted directional spread across Costa Rican cantons, 1993-2012

研究哥斯达黎加1993 - 2012年登革热传播，通过每周病例数重建县间传播地图，经气候调整后发现传播具方向性且集中在特定区域，局部疫情会放大，随病例数增加放大效应下降，可为监测和控制提供依据。