One essential ingredient of evolutionary theory is the concept of fitness as a measure for a species' success in its living conditions. Here, we quantify the effect of environmental fluctuations onto fitness by analytical calculations on a general evolutionary model and by studying corresponding individual-based microscopic models. We demonstrate that not only larger growth rates and viabilities, but also reduced sensitivity to environmental variability substantially increases the fitness. Even for neutral evolution, variability in the growth rates plays the crucial role of strongly reducing the expected fixation times. Thereby, environmental fluctuations constitute a mechanism to account for the effective population sizes inferred from genetic data that often are much smaller than the census population size.
Phenotypic fluctuations and plasticity can generally affect the course of evolution, a process known as the Baldwin effect. Several studies have recast this effect and claimed that phenotypic plasticity acceler- ates evolutionary rate (the Baldwin expediting effect); however, the validity of this claim is still controversial. In this study, we investi- gate the evolutionary population dynamics of a quantitative genetic model under a multi-peaked fitness landscape, in order to evaluate the validity of the effect. We provide analytical expressions for the evolutionary rate and average population…
We consider a fixed size population that undergoes an evolutionary adaptation in the weak mutuation rate limit, which we model as a biased Langevin process in the genotype space. We show analytically and numerically that, if the fitness landscape has a small highly epistatic (rough) and time-varying component, then the population genotype exhibits a high effective diffusion in the genotype space and is able to escape local fitness minima with a large probability. We argue that our principal finding that even very small time-dependent fluctuations of fitness can substantially speed up evolution…
The class of epistatic fitness landscapes is much more diverse than the class of non-epistatic landscapes, and so it stands to reason that there exist dynamical phenomena that can only be realized in the presence of epistasis. Here, we compare evolutionary dynamics on all finite epistatic landscapes versus all finite non-epistatic landscapes, under weak mutation. We first analyze the mean fitness trajectory - that is, the time course of the expected fitness of a population. We show that for any epistatic fitness landscape and starting genotype, there always exists a non-epistatic fitness lands…
Evolutionary graph theory models the effects of natural selection and random drift on structured populations of competing mutant and non-mutant individuals. Recent studies have found that fixation times in such systems often have right-skewed distributions. Little is known, however, about how these distributions and their skew depend on mutant fitness. Here we calculate the fitness dependence of the fixation-time distribution for the Moran Birth-death process in populations modeled by two extreme networks: the complete graph and the one-dimensional ring lattice, obtaining exact solutions in th…
We analyze the dynamics of evolutionary games in which fitness is defined as an affine function of the expected payoff and a constant contribution. The resulting inhomogeneous replicator equation has an homogeneous equivalent with modified payoffs. The affine terms also influence the stochastic dynamics of a two-strategy Moran model of a finite population. We then apply the affine fitness function in a model for tumor-normal cell interactions to determine which are the most successful tumor strategies. In order to analyze the dynamics of concurrent strategies within a tumor population, we exte…
We re-examine the evolutionary dynamics of RNA secondary structures under directional selection towards an optimum RNA structure. We find that the punctuated equilibria lead to a very slow approach to the optimum, following on average an inverse power of the evolutionary time. In addition, our study of the trajectories shows that the out-of-equilibrium effects due to the evolutionary process are very weak. In particular, the distribution of genotypes is close to that arising during equilibrium stabilizing selection. As a consequence, the evolutionary dynamics leave almost no measurable out-of-…
In classical evolutionary theory, genetic variation provides the source of heritable phenotypic variation on which natural selection acts. Against this classical view, several theories have emphasized that developmental variability and learning enhance nonheritable phenotypic variation, which in turn can accelerate evolutionary response. In this paper, I show how developmental variability alters evolutionary dynamics by smoothing the landscape that relates genotype to fitness. In a fitness landscape with multiple peaks and valleys, developmental variability can smooth the landscape to provide …
We study the evolutionary dynamics of a maladapted population of self-replicating sequences on strongly correlated fitness landscapes. Each sequence is assumed to be composed of blocks of equal length and its fitness is given by a linear combination of four independent block fitnesses. A mutation affects the fitness contribution of a single block leaving the other blocks unchanged and hence inducing correlations between the parent and mutant fitness. On such strongly correlated fitness landscapes, we calculate the dynamical properties like the number of jumps in the most populated sequence and…
Three steps aid in the analysis of selection. First, describe phenotypes by their component causes. Components include genes, maternal effects, symbionts, and any other predictors of phenotype that are of interest. Second, describe fitness by its component causes, such as an individual's phenotype, its neighbors' phenotypes, resource availability, and so on. Third, put the predictors of phenotype and fitness into an exact equation for evolutionary change, providing a complete expression of selection and other evolutionary processes. The complete expression separates the distinct causal roles o…
On rugged fitness landscapes where sign epistasis is common, adaptation can often involve either individually beneficial "uphill" mutations or more complex mutational trajectories involving fitness valleys or plateaus. The dynamics of the evolutionary process determine the probability that evolution will take any specific path among a variety of competing possible trajectories. Understanding this evolutionary choice is essential if we are to understand the outcomes and predictability of adaptation on rugged landscapes. We present a simple model to analyze the probability that evolution will es…
We consider the evolution of large but finite populations on arbitrary fitness landscapes. We describe the evolutionary process by a Markov, Moran process. We show that to $\mathcal O(1/N)$, the time-averaged fitness is lower for the finite population than it is for the infinite population. We also show that fluctuations in the number of individuals for a given genotype can be proportional to a power of the inverse of the mutation rate. Finally, we show that the probability for the system to take a given path through the fitness landscape can be non-monotonic in system size.
A simplified form of the time dependent evolutionary dynamics of a quasispecies model with a rugged fitness landscape is solved via a mapping onto a random flux model whose asymptotic behavior can be described in terms of a random walk. The statistics of the number of changes of the dominant genotype from a finite set of genotypes are exactly obtained confirming existing conjectures based on numerics.
Random walks on multidimensional nonlinear landscapes are of interest in many areas of science and engineering. In particular, properties of adaptive trajectories on fitness landscapes determine population fates and thus play a central role in evolutionary theory. The topography of fitness landscapes and its effect on evolutionary dynamics have been extensively studied in the literature. We will survey the current research knowledge in this field, focusing on a recently developed systematic approach to characterizing path lengths, mean first-passage times, and other statistics of the path ense…
Evolutionary adaptation is often likened to climbing a hill or peak. While this process is simple for fitness landscapes where mutations are independent, the interaction between mutations (epistasis) as well as mutations at loci that affect more than one trait (pleiotropy) are crucial in complex and realistic fitness landscapes. We investigate the impact of epistasis and pleiotropy on adaptive evolution by studying the evolution of a population of asexual haploid organisms (haplotypes) in a model of N interacting loci, where each locus interacts with K other loci. We use a quantitative measure…
Functional effects of different mutations are known to combine to the total effect in highly nontrivial ways. For the trait under evolutionary selection (`fitness'), measured values over all possible combinations of a set of mutations yield a fitness landscape that determines which mutational states can be reached from a given initial genotype. Understanding the accessibility properties of fitness landscapes is conceptually important in answering questions about the predictability and repeatability of evolutionary adaptation. Here we theoretically investigate accessibility of the globally opti…
We propose a numerical approach to study the invasion fitness of a mutant and to determine evolutionary singular strategies in evolutionary structured models in which the competitive exclusion principle holds. Our approach is based on a dual representation, which consists of the modelling of the small size mutant population by a stochastic model and the computation of its corresponding deterministic model. The use of the deterministic model greatly facilitates the numerical determination of the feasibility of invasion as well as the convergence-stability of the evolutionary singular strategy. …
Simple sign epistasis and evolutionary detours in fitness landscapes
UK Health Security Agency（英国卫生安全局）；Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, The James Hutton Institute（苏格兰生物数学与统计学，詹姆斯·赫顿研究所）；Group of Complex Systems and Statistical Mechanics, Physics Faculty, University of Havana（哈瓦那大学物理学院复杂系统与统计力学小组）；System Modeling Group, Institute for Veterinary Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Freie Universitaet Berlin（柏林自由大学兽医流行病学和生物统计学研究所系统建模小组）；Accenture（埃森哲）；National University of General Sarmiento（圣萨尔米恩托国立大学）；Department of Biology, University of Oxford（牛津大学生物学系）；Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne（科隆大学生物物理学研究所）；Pandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford（牛津大学纳菲尔德医学系大流行病科学与大数据研究所）
A fitness landscape is a genetic space -- with two genotypes adjacent if they differ in a single locus -- and a fitness function. Evolutionary dynamics produce a flow on this landscape from lower fitness to higher; reaching equilibrium only if a local fitness peak is found. I use computational complexity to question the common assumption that evolution on static fitness landscapes can quickly reach a local fitness peak. I do this by showing that the popular NK model of rugged fitness landscapes is PLS-complete for K >= 2; the reduction from Weighted 2SAT is a bijection on adaptive walks, so th…
Growing efforts to measure fitness landscapes in molecular and microbial systems are premised on a tight relationship between landscape topography and evolutionary trajectories. This relationship, however, is far from being straightforward: depending on their mutation rate, Darwinian populations can climb the closest fitness peak (survival of the fittest), settle in lower regions with higher mutational robustness (survival of the flattest), or fail to adapt altogether (error catastrophes). These bifurcations highlight that evolution does not necessarily drive populations "from lower peak to hi…
Competitions can occur on an absolute scale, to be faster or more efficient, or they can occur on a relative scale, to "beat" one's competitor in a zero-sum game. Ecological models have focused on absolute competitions, in which optima exist. Classic evolutionary models such as the Wright-Fisher model, as well as more recent models of travelling waves, have focused on purely relative competitions, in which fitness continues to increase indefinitely, without actually progressing anywhere. This manuscript proposes a new way to describe both at the same time. It begins with a revised version of r…
In this paper, we discuss the fitness landscape evolution of permanent replicator systems using a hypothesis that the specific time of evolutionary adaptation of the system parameters is much slower than the time of internal evolutionary dynamics. In other words, we suppose that the extreme principle of Darwinian evolution based the Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection is valid for the steady-states. Various cases of the evolutionary adaptation for permanent replicator system are considered.
Molecular phenotypes link genomic information with organismic functions, fitness, and evolution. Quantitative traits are complex phenotypes that depend on multiple genomic loci. In this paper, we study the adaptive evolution of a quantitative trait under time-dependent selection, which arises from environmental changes or through fitness interactions with other co-evolving phenotypes. We analyze a model of trait evolution under mutations and genetic drift in a single-peak fitness seascape. The fitness peak performs a constrained random walk in the trait amplitude, which determines the time-dep…
Fitness Inference in Presence of Migrations between Coupled Evolving Populations
School of Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications（南京邮电大学理学院）；Department of Physics, Université Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷大学物理系）；National Laboratory of Solid State Microstructures, Nanjing University（南京大学固体微结构物理国家重点实验室）；Department of Computational & Systems Biology, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine（匹兹堡大学生物计算与系统生物学系）
Background: Recent experimental and theoretical studies have shown that small asexual populations evolving on complex fitness landscapes may achieve a higher fitness than large ones due to the increased heterogeneity of adaptive trajectories. Here we introduce a class of haploid three-locus fitness landscapes that allows to investigate this scenario in a precise and quantitative way. Results: Our main result derived analytically shows how the probability of choosing the path of largest initial fitness increase grows with the population size. This makes large populations more likely to get trap…
Genetic interactions can strongly influence the fitness effects of individual mutations, yet the impact of these epistatic interactions on evolutionary dynamics remains poorly understood. Here we investigate the evolutionary role of epistasis over 50,000 generations in a well-studied laboratory evolution experiment in E. coli. The extensive duration of this experiment provides a unique window into the effects of epistasis during long-term adaptation to a constant environment. Guided by analytical results in the weak-mutation limit, we develop a computational framework to assess the compatibili…
Darwinian evolution can be modeled in general terms as a flow in the space of fitness (i.e. reproductive rate) distributions. In the diffusion approximation, Tsimring et al. have showed that this flow admits "fitness wave" solutions: Gaussian-shape fitness distributions moving towards higher fitness values at constant speed. Here we show more generally that evolving fitness distributions are attracted to a one-parameter family of distributions with a fixed parabolic relationship between skewness and kurtosis. Unlike fitness waves, this statistical pattern encompasses both positive and negative…
Biological genotypes do not code directly for phenotypes; developmental physiology is the control layer that separates genomes from capacities ascertained by selection. A key aspect is competency, as cells are not a passive material but descendants of unicellular organisms with complex context-sensitive capabilities. We used an evolutionary simulation in the context of minimal artificial embryogeny to probe the effects of different degrees of cellular competency on evolutionary dynamics. Virtual embryos consisted of a single axis of positional information values provided by cells' genomes, ope…
The concept of fitness as a measure for a species's success in natural selection is central to the theory of evolution. We here investigate how reproduction rates which are not constant but vary in response to environmental fluctuations, influence a species' prosperity and thereby its fitness. Interestingly, we find that not only larger growth rates but also reduced sensitivities to environmental changes substantially increase the fitness. Thereby, depending on the noise level of the environment, it might be an evolutionary successful strategy to minimize this sensitivity rather than to optimi…
The fitness landscape encodes the mapping of genotypes to fitness and provides a succinct representation of possible trajectories followed by an evolving population. Evolutionary accessibility is quantified by the existence of fitness-monotonic paths connecting far away genotypes. Studies of accessibility percolation use probabilistic fitness landscape models to explore the emergence of such paths as a function of the initial fitness, the parameters of the landscape or the structure of the genotype graph. This chapter reviews these studies and discusses their implications for the predictabilit…
Cooperation is ubiquitous in every level of living organisms. It is known that spatial (network) structure is a viable mechanism for cooperation to evolve. Until recently, it has been difficult to predict whether cooperation can evolve at a network (population) level. To address this problem, Pinheiro et al. proposed a numerical metric, called Average Gradient of Selection (AGoS) in 2012. AGoS can characterize and forecast the evolutionary fate of cooperation at a population level. However, stochastic mutation of strategies was not considered in the analysis of AGoS. Here we analyzed the evolu…
We consider the evolutionary trajectories traced out by an infinite population undergoing mutation-selection dynamics in static, uncorrelated random fitness landscapes. Starting from the population that consists of a single genotype, the most populated genotype \textit{jumps} from a local fitness maximum to another and eventually reaches the global maximum. We use a strong selection limit, which reduces the dynamics beyond the first time step to the competition between independent mutant subpopulations, to study the dynamics of this model and of a simpler one-dimensional model which ignores th…
We present a mechanistic formalism for the study of evolutionary dynamics models based on the diffusion approximation described by the Kimura Equation. In this formalism, the central component is the fitness potential, from which we obtain an expression for the amount of work necessary for a given type to reach fixation. In particular, within this interpretation, we develop a graphical analysis --- similar to the one used in classical mechanics --- providing the basic tool for a simple heuristic that describes both the short and long term dynamics. As a by-product, we provide a new definition …
We first revisit the multi-allelic mutation-fitness balance problem, especially when mutations obey a house of cards condition, where the discrete-time deterministic evolutionary dynamics of the allelic frequencies derives from a Shahshahani potential. We then consider multi-allelic Wright-Fisher stochastic models whose deviation to neutrality is from the Shahsha-hani mutation/selection potential. We next focus on the weak selection, weak mutation cases and, making use of a Gamma calculus, we compute the normalizing partition functions of the invariant probability densities appearing in their …
We explore some aspects of the relationship between biological evolution processes and the mathematical theory of records. For Eigen's quasispecies model with an uncorrelated fitness landscape, we show that the evolutionary trajectories traced out by a population initially localized at a randomly chosen point in sequence space can be described in close analogy to record dynamics, with two complications. First, the increasing number of genotypes that become available with increasing distance from the starting point implies that fitness records are more frequent than for the standard case of ind…
We analytically study the dynamics of evolving populations that exhibit metastability on the level of phenotype or fitness. In constant selective environments, such metastable behavior is caused by two qualitatively different mechanisms. One the one hand, populations may become pinned at a local fitness optimum, being separated from higher-fitness genotypes by a {\em fitness barrier} of low-fitness genotypes. On the other hand, the population may only be metastable on the level of phenotype or fitness while, at the same time, diffusing over {\em neutral networks} of selectively neutral genotyp…
The ability of organisms to accurately sense their environment and respond accordingly is critical for evolutionary success. However, exactly how the sensory ability influences fitness is a topic of active research, while the necessity of a time delay between when unreliable environmental cues are sensed and when organisms can mount a response has yet to be explored at any length. Accounting for this delay in phenotype response in models of population growth, we find that a critical error probability can exist under certain environmental conditions: an organism with a sensory system with any e…
The adaptive evolution of a population under the influence of mutation and selection is strongly influenced by the structure of the underlying fitness landscape, which encodes the interactions between mutations at different genetic loci. Theoretical studies of such landscapes have been carried out for several decades, but only recently experimental fitness measurements encompassing all possible combinations of small sets of mutations have become available. The empirical studies have spawned new questions about the accessibility of optimal genotypes under natural selection. Depending on populat…
A fitness landscape is a mapping from the space of genetic sequences, which is modeled here as a binary hypercube of dimension $L$, to the real numbers. We consider random models of fitness landscapes, where fitness values are assigned according to some probabilistic rule, and study the statistical properties of pathways to the global fitness maximum along which fitness increases monotonically. Such paths are important for evolution because they are the only ones that are accessible to an adapting population when mutations occur at a low rate. The focus of this work is on the block model intro…
Sewall Wright's adaptive landscape metaphor penetrates a significant part of evolutionary thinking. Supplemented with Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection and Kimura's maximum principle, it provides a unifying and intuitive representation of the evolutionary process under the influence of natural selection as the hill climbing on the surface of mean population fitness. On the other hand, it is also well known that for many more or less realistic mathematical models this picture is a sever misrepresentation of what actually occurs. Therefore, we are faced with two questions. First,…
Sexual reproduction is not always synonymous with the existence of two morphologically different sexes; isogamous species produce sex cells of equal size, typically falling into multiple distinct self-incompatible classes, termed mating types. A long-standing open question in evolutionary biology is: what governs the number of these mating types across species? Simple theoretical arguments imply an advantage to rare types, suggesting the number of types should grow consistently, however, empirical observations are very different. While some isogamous species exhibit thousands of mating types, …
Experimental studies on enzyme evolution show that only a small fraction of all possible mutation trajectories are accessible to evolution. However, these experiments deal with individual enzymes and explore a tiny part of the fitness landscape. We report an exhaustive analysis of fitness landscapes constructed with an off-lattice model of protein folding where fitness is equated with robustness to misfolding. This model mimics the essential features of the interactions between amino acids, is consistent with the key paradigms of protein folding and reproduces the universal distribution of evo…
Evolutionary adaptation is the process that increases the fit of a population to the fitness landscape it inhabits. As a consequence, evolutionary dynamics is shaped, constrained, and channeled, by that fitness landscape. Much work has been expended to understand the evolutionary dynamics of adapting populations, but much less is known about the structure of the landscapes. Here, we study the global and local structure of complex fitness landscapes of interacting loci that describe protein folds or sets of interacting genes forming pathways or modules. We find that in these landscapes, high pe…
We investigate a model of evolutionary dynamics on a smooth landscape which features a ``mutator'' allele whose effect is to increase the mutation rate. We show that the expected proportion of mutators far from equilibrium, when the fitness is steadily increasing in time, is governed solely by the transition rates into and out of the mutator state. This results is a much faster rate of fitness increase than would be the case without the mutator allele. Near the fitness equilibrium, however, the mutators are severely suppressed, due to the detrimental effects of a large mutation rate near the f…
We consider an asexual population evolving on rugged fitness landscapes which are defined on the multi-dimensional genotypic space and have many local optima. We track the most populated genotype as it changes when the population jumps from a fitness peak to a better one during the process of adaptation. This is done using the dynamics of the shell model which is a simplified version of the quasispecies model for infinite populations and standard Wright-Fisher dynamics for large finite populations. We show that the population fraction of a genotype obtained within the quasispecies model and th…
The probability that the frequency of a particular trait will eventually become unity, the so-called fixation probability, is a central issue in the study of population evolution. Its computation, once we are given a stochastic finite population model without mutations and a (possibly frequency dependent) fitness function, is straightforward and it can be done in several ways. Nevertheless, despite the fact that the fixation probability is an important macroscopic property of the population, its precise knowledge does not give any clear information about the interaction patterns among individu…
A cell-molecular based evolutionary model of tumor development driven by a stochastic Moran birth-death process is developed, where each cell carries molecular information represented by a four-digit binary string, used to differentiate cells into 16 molecular types. The binary string value determines cell fitness, with lower fit cells (e.g. 0000) defined as healthy phenotypes, and higher fit cells (e.g. 1111) defined as malignant phenotypes. At each step of the birth-death process, the two phenotypic sub-populations compete in a prisoner's dilemma evolutionary game with healthy cells (coopera…
We examine birth--death processes with state dependent transition probabilities and at least one absorbing boundary. In evolution, this describes selection acting on two different types in a finite population where reproductive events occur successively. If the two types have equal fitness the system performs a random walk. If one type has a fitness advantage it is favored by selection, which introduces a bias (asymmetry) in the transition probabilities. How long does it take until advantageous mutants have invaded and taken over? Surprisingly, we find that the average time of such a process c…
This paper further develops work from a previous article which introduced a new way of modelling evolutionary game models with an emphasis on ecological realism, concerned with how ecological factors determine payoffs in evolutionary games. The current paper is focused on the impact of selectively neutral factors (i.e. those that are the same for all strategies), such as background fitness and a neutral density dependence on game dynamics. In the previous paper background mortality was modelled by post-reproductive mortality describing aggregated mortality between game interactions. In this pa…
This study focuses on open quasispecies systems with competition and death flow, described by modified Eigen and Crow-Kimura models. We examine the evolutionary adaptation process as a reaction to changes in rates. One of the fundamental assumptions, which forms the basis of our mathematical model, is the existence of two different timescales: internal dynamics time and evolutionary time. The latter is much slower and exhibits significant adaptation events. These conditions allow us to represent the whole evolutionary process through a series of steady-state equations, where all the elements c…
The modelling of evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations requires microscopic processes that determine how strategies spread. The exact details of these processes are often chosen without much further consideration. Different types of microscopic models, including in particular fitness-based selection rules and imitation-based dynamics, are often used as if they were interchangeable. We challenge this view and investigate how robust these choices on the micro-level really are. Focusing on a key macroscopic observable, the probability for a single mutant to take over a population of wi…
We demonstrate with a thought experiment that fitness-based population dynamical approaches to evolution are not able to make quantitative, falsifiable predictions about the long-term behavior of evolutionary systems. A key characteristic of evolutionary systems is the ongoing endogenous production of new species. These novel entities change the conditions for already existing species. Even {\em Darwin's Demon}, a hypothetical entity with exact knowledge of the abundance of all species and their fitness functions at a given time, could not pre-state the impact of these novelties on established…
Evolution of cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma and the public goods game is studied, where initially players belong to two independent structured populations. Simultaneously with the strategy evolution, players whose current utility exceeds a threshold are rewarded by an external link to a player belonging to the other population. Yet as soon as the utility drops below the threshold, the external link is terminated. The rewarding of current evolutionary fitness thus introduces a time-varying interdependence between the two populations. We show that, regardless of the details of the evoluti…
Consider a mathematical model of evolutionary adaptation of fitness landscape and mutation matrix as a reaction to population changes. As a basis, we use an open quasispecies model, which is modified to include explicit death flow. We assume that evolutionary parameters of mutation and selection processes vary in a way to maximize the mean fitness of the system. From this standpoint, Fisher's theorem of natural selection is being rethought and discussed. Another assumption is that system dynamics has two significant timescales. According to our central hypothesis, major evolutionary transition…
Frequency dependent selection and demographic fluctuations play important roles in evolutionary and ecological processes. Under frequency dependent selection, the average fitness of the population may increase or decrease based on interactions between individuals within the population. This should be reflected in fluctuations of the population size even in constant environments. Here, we propose a stochastic model, which naturally combines these two evolutionary ingredients by assuming frequency dependent competition between different types in an individual-based model. In contrast to previous…
