关键资源的系统性贸易风险
Systemic trade-risk of critical resources
AI总结：
研究关键资源供应风险、稀缺性和价格波动与全球贸易网络结构的关系，揭示高系统性贸易风险资源的区域特征及欧盟管理不足。
摘要：
2008年金融危机后，强关联市场对系统性不稳定的影响日益受到重视。大宗商品贸易网络易受供应冲击的级联效应，增加系统性贸易风险并威胁地缘政治稳定。全球和区域层面显示，非燃料矿物资源的供应风险、稀缺性和价格波动与世界贸易网络结构密切相关。全球层面证明资源稀缺性与贸易网络对级联冲击的敏感性相关。区域层面发现区域特定的价格波动和供应风险可通过中心性指标解释。高系统性贸易风险资源多为主要金属的副产品。研究指出欧盟在系统性贸易风险管理方面存在显著不足。
英文摘要：
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis the role of strongly interconnected markets in fostering systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to deleterious cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade-risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. On a global and a regional level we show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of non-fuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the world-trade network of or spanned by these resources. On the global level we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource, as measured by its trade volume compared to extractable reserves, is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. On the regional level we find that to some extent the region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade-risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade-risk indicators are often those that are produced as byproducts of major metals. We identify significant shortcomings in the management of systemic trade-risk, in particular in the EU.
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