AI 中文总结
研究供应链系统风险，利用厄瓜多尔数据集发现公司失败组合的系统风险贡献远超单个公司，开发方法识别高放大组合，根源是供应商可替代性崩溃，探讨了对多公司受影响情况的意义。
AI 中文摘要
近期事件凸显了供应链的系统脆弱性，单个公司失败会引发供应链网络级联故障。如今能量化单个公司失败对供应链的系统影响。研究表明公司失败组合的系统风险贡献可能远超单个公司造成损害之和。利用厄瓜多尔国家供应链网络数据集发现，组合失败可使系统风险放大257倍，仅0.14%的组合有超4倍放大。还开发方法识别导致系统风险大幅放大的公司组合，其根源是违约供应商可替代性的崩溃，并讨论了相关影响。
英文摘要
Whether the COVID-19 pandemic or the Iran war, recent events have highlighted the systemic fragility of supply chains. Due to highly specific and mutual buyer-supplier dependencies, even the failure of a single firm can cause system-wide economic disruptions in the form of cascading failures up and down the supply chain network. Only recently has it become possible to quantify the systemic impact of the failure of individual firms on the total supply chain. Here, we demonstrate that the systemic risk contributions of combinations of firm failures can be drastically larger than the sum of the damage caused by the firms individually. Using a unique data set that allows us to reconstruct the national supply chain network of Ecuador at the firm-level, we find that combined failures can produce systemic risk amplifications of up to a factor of 257. However, only a tiny fraction of 0.14\% of pairs exhibit a more than 4-fold amplification of systemic risk. We develop a simple method to identify firm combinations that lead to large systemic risk amplifications. The origin of these amplifications is a breakdown of the substitutability of defaulted suppliers. We discuss the implications of the existence of rare but strong systemic risk amplification for situations that simultaneously affect multiple firms, such as natural disasters and wars.
