The inverse temperature parameter of the Potts model governs the strength of spatial cohesion and therefore has a major influence over the resulting model fit. A difficulty arises from the dependence of an intractable normalising constant on the value of this parameter and thus there is no closed-form solution for sampling from the posterior distribution directly. There are a variety of computational approaches for sampling from the posterior without evaluating the normalising constant, including the exchange algorithm and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). A serious drawback of these algorithms is that they do not scale well for models with a large state space, such as images with a million or more pixels. We introduce a parametric surrogate model, which approximates the score function using an integral curve. Our surrogate model incorporates known properties of the likelihood, such as heteroskedasticity and critical temperature. We demonstrate this method using synthetic data as well as remotely-sensed imagery from the Landsat-8 satellite. We achieve up to a hundredfold improvement in the elapsed runtime, compared to the exchange algorithm or ABC. An open source implementation of our algorithm is available in the R package "bayesImageS."
In images with low contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), the information gain from the observed pixel values can be insufficient to distinguish foreground objects. A Bayesian approach to this problem is to incorporate prior information about the objects into a statistical model. This paper introduces a method for representing spatial prior information as an external field in a hidden Potts model of the image lattice. The prior distribution of the latent pixel labels is a mixture of Gaussian fields, centred on the positions of the objects at a previous point in time. This model is particularly applica…
University of Bristol（布里斯托大学）；Heriot Watt University（赫瑞瓦特大学）
This paper presents a new Bayesian estimation technique for hidden Potts-Markov random fields with unknown regularisation parameters, with application to fast unsupervised K-class image segmentation. The technique is derived by first removing the regularisation parameter from the Bayesian model by marginalisation, followed by a small-variance-asymptotic (SVA) analysis in which the spatial regularisation and the integer-constrained terms of the Potts model are decoupled. The evaluation of this SVA Bayesian estimator is then relaxed into a problem that can be computed efficiently by iteratively …
Scalable Bayesian Additive Models for Stellar Flare Detection via Amortized Gaussian Process Inference and Hidden Markov Models
Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto（多伦多大学统计科学系）；Data Sciences Institute, University of Toronto（多伦多大学数据科学研究院）；School of the Environment, University of Toronto（多伦多大学环境学院）；David A. Dunlap Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto（多伦多大学大卫·A·邓拉普天文与天体物理系）；School of Public Health, Imperial College London（伦敦帝国学院公共卫生学院）；Department of Astronomy, University of Washington（华盛顿大学天文学系）
Hidden Markov Model (HMM) combined with Gaussian Process (GP) emission can be effectively used to estimate the hidden state with a sequence of complex input-output relational observations. Especially when the spectral mixture (SM) kernel is used for GP emission, we call this model as a hybrid HMM-GPSM. This model can effectively model the sequence of time-series data. However, because of a large number of parameters for the SM kernel, this model can not effectively be trained with a large volume of data having (1) long sequence for state transition and 2) a large number of time-series dataset …
Flood extent mapping plays a crucial role in disaster management and national water forecasting. Unfortunately, traditional classification methods are often hampered by the existence of noise, obstacles and heterogeneity in spectral features as well as implicit anisotropic spatial dependency across class labels. In this paper, we propose geographical hidden Markov tree, a probabilistic graphical model that generalizes the common hidden Markov model from a one dimensional sequence to a two dimensional map. Anisotropic spatial dependency is incorporated in the hidden class layer with a reverse t…
We introduce a new formulation of the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework for modeling families of related tasks using low-dimensional latent embeddings. Our new framework correctly models the joint uncertainty in the latent parameters and the state space. We also replace the original Gaussian Process-based model with a Bayesian Neural Network, enabling more scalable inference. Thus, we expand the scope of the HiP-MDP to applications with higher dimensions and more complex dynamics.
Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show that non-sampling-based latent state inference used in HSMM's can be generalized to latent Continuous-Time semi-Markov Chains (CTSMC's). We formulate integro-differential forward and backward equations adjusted to the observation likelihood and introduce an exact integral equation for the Bayesian posterior marginals and a scalable Viterbi-type algorithm for p…
Significant success has been reported recently using deep neural networks for classification. Such large networks can be computationally intensive, even after training is over. Implementing these trained networks in hardware chips with a limited precision of synaptic weights may improve their speed and energy efficiency by several orders of magnitude, thus enabling their integration into small and low-power electronic devices. With this motivation, we develop a computationally efficient learning algorithm for multilayer neural networks with binary weights, assuming all the hidden neurons have …
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Duke University（杜克大学）
Analysis of heterogeneous patterns in complex spatio-temporal data finds usage across various domains in applied science and engineering, including training autonomous vehicles to navigate in complex traffic scenarios. Motivated by applications arising in the transportation domain, in this paper we develop a model for learning heterogeneous and dynamic patterns of velocity field data. We draw from basic nonparameric Bayesian modeling elements such as hierarchical Dirichlet process and infinite hidden Markov model, while the smoothness of each homogeneous velocity field element is captured with…
Statistical inference on the cancer-site specificities of collective ultra-rare whole genome somatic mutations is an open problem. Traditional statistical methods cannot handle whole-genome mutation data due to their ultra-high-dimensionality and extreme data sparsity -- e.g., >30 million unique variants are observed in the ~1700 whole-genome tumor dataset considered herein, of which >99% variants are encountered only once. To harness information in these rare variants we have recently proposed the "hidden genome model", a formal multilevel multi-logistic model that mines information in ultra-…
School of Computer and Communication Sciences, EPFL（洛桑联邦理工学院计算机与通信科学学院）；Spotify（Spotify公司）
We consider the problem of finding a target object $t$ using pairwise comparisons, by asking an oracle questions of the form \emph{"Which object from the pair $(i,j)$ is more similar to $t$?"}. Objects live in a space of latent features, from which the oracle generates noisy answers. First, we consider the {\em non-blind} setting where these features are accessible. We propose a new Bayesian comparison-based search algorithm with noisy answers; it has low computational complexity yet is efficient in the number of queries. We provide theoretical guarantees, deriving the form of the optimal quer…
Most of the existing algorithms for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) assume that it is feasible to simulate pseudo-data from the model at each iteration. However, the computational cost of these simulations can be prohibitive for high dimensional data. An important example is the Potts model, which is commonly used in image analysis. Images encountered in real world applications can have millions of pixels, therefore scalability is a major concern. We apply ABC with a synthetic likelihood to the hidden Potts model with additive Gaussian noise. Using a pre-processing step, we fit a bindin…
German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases（德国神经退行性疾病中心）；MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学MRC生物统计组）
In many applications, data can be heterogeneous in the sense of spanning latent groups with different underlying distributions. When predictive models are applied to such data the heterogeneity can affect both predictive performance and interpretability. Building on developments at the intersection of unsupervised learning and regularised regression, we propose an approach for heterogeneous data that allows joint learning of (i) explicit multivariate feature distributions, (ii) high-dimensional regression models and (iii) latent group labels, with both (i) and (ii) specific to latent groups an…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Stanford Unviersity（斯坦福大学）
We perform scalable approximate inference in continuous-depth Bayesian neural networks. In this model class, uncertainty about separate weights in each layer gives hidden units that follow a stochastic differential equation. We demonstrate gradient-based stochastic variational inference in this infinite-parameter setting, producing arbitrarily-flexible approximate posteriors. We also derive a novel gradient estimator that approaches zero variance as the approximate posterior over weights approaches the true posterior. This approach brings continuous-depth Bayesian neural nets to a competitive …
We consider the problem of drawing samples from posterior distributions formed under a Dirichlet prior and a truncated multinomial likelihood, by which we mean a Multinomial likelihood function where we condition on one or more counts being zero a priori. Sampling this posterior distribution is of interest in inference algorithms for hierarchical Bayesian models based on the Dirichlet distribution or the Dirichlet process, particularly Gibbs sampling algorithms for the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Semi-Markov Model. We provide a data augmentation sampling algorithm that is easy to imp…
In many applications such as copy number variant (CNV) detection, the goal is to identify short segments on which the observations have different means or medians from the background. Those segments are usually short and hidden in a long sequence, and hence are very challenging to find. We study a super scalable short segment (4S) detection algorithm in this paper. This nonparametric method clusters the locations where the observations exceed a threshold for segment detection. It is computationally efficient and does not rely on Gaussian noise assumption. Moreover, we develop a framework to as…
