Time-consistency is an essential requirement in risk sensitive optimal control problems to make rational decisions. An optimization problem is time consistent if its solution policy does not depend on the time sequence of solving the optimization problem. On the other hand, a dynamic risk measure is time consistent if a certain outcome is considered less risky in the future implies this outcome is also less risky at current stage.
In this paper, we study time-consistency of risk constrained problem where the risk metric is time consistent. From the Bellman optimality condition in [1], we establish an analytical "risk-to-go" that results in a time consistent optimal policy. Finally we demonstrate the effectiveness of the analytical solution by solving Haviv's counter-example [2] in time inconsistent planning.
In this paper we present a stochastic scenario-based model predictive control (MPC) approach for the operation of islanded microgrids with high share of renewable energy sources. We require that the stored energy remains within given bounds with a certain probability using risk-based constraints as convex approximations of chance constraints. We show that risk constraints can generally be cast as conic constraints and, unlike chance constraints, can control both the number and average magnitude of constraint violations. Lastly, we demonstrate the risk-constrained stochastic MPC in a numerical …
We propose dynamical optimal transport (OT) problems constrained in a parameterized probability subset. In application problems such as deep learning, the probability distribution is often generated by a parameterized mapping function. In this case, we derive a simple formulation for the constrained dynamical OT.
We consider a class of risk-averse submodular maximization problems (RASM) where the objective is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of a random nondecreasing submodular function at a given risk level. We propose valid inequalities and an exact general method for solving RASM under the assumption that we have an efficient oracle that computes the CVaR of the random function. We demonstrate the proposed method on a stochastic set covering problem that admits an efficient CVaR oracle for the random coverage function.
Multistage risk-averse optimal control problems with nested conditional risk mappings are gaining popularity in various application domains. Risk-averse formulations interpolate between the classical expectation-based stochastic and minimax optimal control. This way, risk-averse problems aim at hedging against extreme low-probability events without being overly conservative. At the same time, risk-based constraints may be employed either as surrogates for chance (probabilistic) constraints or as a robustification of expectation-based constraints. Such multistage problems, however, have been id…
Path Integral Control methods were developed for stochastic optimal control covering a wide class of finite horizon formulations with control affine nonlinear dynamics. Characteristic for this class is that the HJB equation is linear and consequently the value function can be expressed as a conditional expectation of the exponentially weighted cost-to-go evaluated over trajectories with uncontrolled system dynamics, hence the name. Subsequently it was shown that under the same assumptions Path Integral Control generalises to finite horizon risk sensitive stochastic optimal control problems. He…
We study logistical investment flexibility provided by modular processing technologies for mitigating risk. Specifically, we propose a multi-stage stochastic programming formulation that determines optimal capacity expansion plans that mitigate demand uncertainty. The formulation accounts for multi-product dependencies between small/large units and for trade-offs between expected profit and risk. The formulation uses a cumulative risk measure to avoid timeconsistency issues of traditional, per-stage risk-minimization formulations and we argue that this approach is more compatible with typical …
This paper addresses two vital issues which are barely discussed in the literature on robust unit commitment (RUC): 1) how much the potential operational loss could be if the realization of uncertainty is beyond the prescribed uncertainty set; 2) how large the prescribed uncertainty set should be when it is used for RUC decision making. In this regard, a robust risk-constrained unit commitment (RRUC) formulation is proposed to cope with large-scale volatile and uncertain wind generation. Differing from existing RUC formulations, the wind generation uncertainty set in RRUC is adjustable via cho…
In this paper, we study chance constrained mixed integer program with consideration of recourse decisions and their incurred cost, developed on a finite discrete scenario set. Through studying a non-traditional bilinear mixed integer formulation, we derive its linear counterparts and show that they could be stronger than existing linear formulations. We also develop a variant of Jensen's inequality that extends the one for stochastic program. To solve this challenging problem, we present a variant of Benders decomposition method in bilinear form, which actually provides an easy-to-use algorith…
Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we utilize the right-hand si…
Existing electricity market designs assume risk neutrality and lack risk-hedging instruments, which leads to suboptimal market outcomes and reduces the overall market efficiency. This paper enables risk-trading in the chance-constrained stochastic electricity market by introducing Arrow-Debreu Securities (ADS) and derives a risk-averse market-clearing model with risk trading. To enable risk trading, the probability space of underlying uncertainty is discretized in a finite number of outcomes, which makes it possible to design practical risk contracts and to produce energy, balancing reserve an…
We develop a model-free learning algorithm for the infinite-horizon linear quadratic regulator (LQR) problem. Specifically, (risk) constraints and structured feedback are considered, in order to reduce the state deviation while allowing for a sparse communication graph in practice. By reformulating the dual problem as a nonconvex-concave minimax problem, we adopt the gradient descent max-oracle (GDmax), and for modelfree setting, the stochastic (S)GDmax using zero-order policy gradient. By bounding the Lipschitz and smoothness constants of the LQR cost using specifically defined sublevel sets,…
A large class of stochastic programs involve optimizing an expectation taken with respect to an underlying distribution that is unknown in practice. One popular approach to addressing the distributional uncertainty, known as the distributionally robust optimization (DRO), is to hedge against the worst case over an uncertainty set of candidate distributions. However, it has been observed that inappropriate construction of the uncertainty set can sometimes result in over-conservative solutions. To explore the middle ground between optimistically ignoring the distributional uncertainty and pessim…
We consider the constrained assortment optimization problem under the mixed multinomial logit model. Even moderately sized instances of this problem are challenging to solve directly using standard mixed-integer linear optimization formulations. This has motivated recent research exploring customized optimization strategies and approximation techniques. In contrast, we develop a novel conic quadratic mixed-integer formulation. This new formulation, together with McCormick inequalities exploiting the capacity constraints, enables the solution of large instances using commercial optimization sof…
Having a perfect model to compute the optimal policy is often infeasible in reinforcement learning. It is important in high-stakes domains to quantify and manage risk induced by model uncertainties. Entropic risk measure is an exponential utility-based convex risk measure that satisfies many reasonable properties. In this paper, we propose an entropic risk constrained policy gradient and actor-critic algorithms that are risk-averse to the model uncertainty. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithms on several problem domains.
The present paper aims at providing a numerical strategy to deal with PDE-constrained optimization problems solved with the adjoint method. It is done through out a unified formulation of the constraint PDE and the adjoint model. The resulting model is a non-conservative hyperbolic system and thus a finite volume scheme is proposed to solve it. In this form, the scheme sets in a single frame both constraint PDE and adjoint model. The forward and backward evolutions are controlled by a single parameter $η$ and a stable time step is obtained only once at each optimization iteration. The methodol…
Distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) over Wasserstein ambiguity sets exhibit attractive out-of-sample performance and admit big-$M$-based mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations with conic constraints. However, the resulting formulations often suffer from scalability issues as sample size increases. To address this shortcoming, we derive stronger formulations that scale well with respect to the sample size. Our focus is on ambiguity sets under the so-called left-hand side (LHS) uncertainty, where the uncertain parameters affect the coefficients of the decision va…
Risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) offers a control framework that allows one to account for ambiguity in the knowledge of the underlying probability distribution and unifies stochastic and worst-case MPC. In this paper we study risk-averse MPC problems for constrained nonlinear Markovian switching systems using generic cost functions, and derive Lyapunov-type risk-averse stability conditions by leveraging the properties of risk-averse dynamic programming operators. We propose a controller design procedure to design risk-averse stabilizing terminal conditions for constrained nonlinear …
The system reconfiguration task is considered for existing power distribution systems and microgrids, in the presence of renewable-based generation and load foresting errors. The system topology is obtained by solving a chance-constrained optimization problem, where loss-of-load (LOL) constraints and Ampacity limits of the distribution lines are enforced. Similar to various distribution system reconfiguration renditions, solving the resultant problem is computationally prohibitive due to the presence of binary line selection variables. Further, lack of closed form expressions for the joint pro…
This paper considers the problem of finding near-optimal Markovian randomized (MR) policies for finite-state-action, infinite-horizon, constrained risk-sensitive Markov decision processes (CRSMDPs). Constraints are in the form of standard expected discounted cost functions as well as expected risk-sensitive discounted cost functions over finite and infinite horizons. The main contribution is to show that the problem possesses a solution if it is feasible, and to provide two methods for finding an approximate solution in the form of an ultimately stationary (US) MR policy. The latter is achieve…
In many sequential decision-making problems one is interested in minimizing an expected cumulative cost while taking into account \emph{risk}, i.e., increased awareness of events of small probability and high consequences. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to present efficient reinforcement learning algorithms for risk-constrained Markov decision processes (MDPs), where risk is represented via a chance constraint or a constraint on the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of the cumulative cost. We collectively refer to such problems as percentile risk-constrained MDPs. Specifically, we …
This paper addresses the air traffic flow management research problem of determining reroute, ground delay and air delay for flights using stochastic weather forecast information. The overall goal is to minimize system-wide reroute and delay costs. This problem is a primary concern in United States and especially in its northeastern region, and is also the key in enhancing the performance of the new FAA Traffic Management Initiative called Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). In this work we present six stochastic integer programming models, including two two-stage models and four …
Ill-posed linear inverse problems (ILIP), such as restoration and reconstruction, are a core topic of signal/image processing. A standard approach to deal with ILIP uses a constrained optimization problem, where a regularization function is minimized under the constraint that the solution explains the observations sufficiently well. The regularizer and constraint are usually convex; however, several particular features of these problems (huge dimensionality, non-smoothness) preclude the use of off-the-shelf optimization tools and have stimulated much research. In this paper, we propose a new e…
This paper considers a risk-constrained infinite-horizon optimal control problem and proposes to solve it in an iterative manner. Each iteration of the algorithm generates a trajectory from the starting point to the target equilibrium state by implementing a distributionally robust risk-constrained model predictive control (MPC) scheme. At each iteration, a set of safe states (that satisfy the risk-constraint with high probability) and a certain number of independent and identically distributed samples of the uncertainty governing the risk constraint are available. These states and samples are…
This papers deals with the constrained discounted control of piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMPs) in general Borel spaces. The control variable acts on the jump rate and transition measure, and the goal is to minimize the total expected discounted cost, composed of positive running and boundary costs, while satisfying some constraints also in this form. The basic idea is, by using the special features of the PDMPs, to re-write the problem via an embedded discrete-time Markov chain associated to the PDMP and re-formulate the problem as an infinite dimensional linear programming (LP) p…
Multilevel Stochastic Gradient Descent for Risk-Averse PDE-Constrained Optimization
Heidelberg University（海德堡大学）；Johann Radon Institute for Computational and Applied Mathematics（约翰·拉多纳计算与应用数学研究所）；Karlsruhe Institute of Technology（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）；Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学）
We study stochastic optimization problems with chance and risk constraints, where in the latter, risk is quantified in terms of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We consider the distributionally robust versions of these problems, where the constraints are required to hold for a family of distributions constructed from the observed realizations of the uncertainty via the Wasserstein distance. Our main results establish that if the samples are drawn independently from an underlying distribution and the problems satisfy suitable technical assumptions, then the optimal value and optimizers of …
California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）；NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory（NASA喷气推进实验室）
We consider the problem of designing policies for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with dynamic coherent risk objectives and constraints. We begin by formulating the problem in a Lagrangian framework. Under the assumption that the risk objectives and constraints can be represented by a Markov risk transition mapping, we propose an optimization-based method to synthesize Markovian policies that lower-bound the constrained risk-averse problem. We demonstrate that the formulated optimization problems are in the form of difference convex programs (DCPs) and can be solved by the disciplined convex-…
We discuss solution algorithms for calibrating a tumor growth model using imaging data posed as a deterministic inverse problem. The forward model consists of a nonlinear and time-dependent reaction-diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) with unknown parameters (diffusivity and proliferation rate) being spatial fields. We use a dimension-independent globalized, inexact Newton Conjugate Gradient algorithm to solve the PDE-constrained optimization. The required gradient and Hessian actions are also presented using the adjoint method and Lagrangian formalism.
Ecole polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）；INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；INSERM（法国国家健康与医学研究院）；Sorbonne Université（索邦大学）；Université Paris Cité（巴黎西岱大学）
Robust Reinforcement Learning tries to make predictions more robust to changes in the dynamics or rewards of the system. This problem is particularly important when the dynamics and rewards of the environment are estimated from the data. In this paper, we approximate the Robust Reinforcement Learning constrained with a $Φ$-divergence using an approximate Risk-Averse formulation. We show that the classical Reinforcement Learning formulation can be robustified using standard deviation penalization of the objective. Two algorithms based on Distributional Reinforcement Learning, one for discrete a…
In this paper we the formulation of inverse problems as constrained minimization problems and their iterative solution by gradient or Newton type. We carry out a convergence analysis in the sense of regularization methods and discuss applicability to the problem of identifying the spatially varying diffusivity in an elliptic PDE from different sets of observations. Among these is a novel hybrid imaging techology known as impedance acoustic tomography, for which we provide numerical experiments.
When we implement a portfolio selection methodology under a mean-risk formulation, it is essential to correctly model investors' risk aversion which may be time-dependent, or even state-dependent during the investment procedure. In this paper, we propose a behavior risk aversion model, which is a piecewise linear function of the current wealth level with a reference point at a preset investment target. Due to the time inconsistency of the resulting multi-period mean-variance model with an adaptive risk aversion, we investigate in this paper the time consistent behavior portfolio policy by solv…
The behaviour of a stochastic dynamical system may be largely influenced by those low-probability, yet extreme events. To address such occurrences, this paper proposes an infinite-horizon risk-constrained Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) framework with time-average cost. In addition to the standard LQR objective, the average one-stage predictive variance of the state penalty is constrained to lie within a user-specified level. By leveraging the duality, its optimal solution is first shown to be stationary and affine in the state, i.e., $u(x,λ^*) = -K(λ^*)x + l(λ^*)$, where $λ^*$ is an optimal …
We propose a new risk-constrained reformulation of the standard Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) problem. Our framework is motivated by the fact that the classical (risk-neutral) LQR controller, although optimal in expectation, might be ineffective under relatively infrequent, yet statistically significant (risky) events. To effectively trade between average and extreme event performance, we introduce a new risk constraint, which explicitly restricts the total expected predictive variance of the state penalty by a user-prescribed level. We show that, under rather minimal conditions on the proc…
While the techniques in optimal control theory are often model-based, the policy optimization (PO) approach directly optimizes the performance metric of interest. Even though it has been an essential approach for reinforcement learning problems, there is little theoretical understanding on its performance. In this paper, we focus on the risk-constrained linear quadratic regulator (RC-LQR) problem via the PO approach, which requires addressing a challenging non-convex constrained optimization problem. To solve it, we first build on our earlier result that an optimal policy has a time-invariant …
This paper addresses a continuous-time continuous-space chance-constrained stochastic optimal control (SOC) problem via a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) partial differential equation (PDE). Through Lagrangian relaxation, we convert the chance-constrained (risk-constrained) SOC problem to a risk-minimizing SOC problem, the cost function of which possesses the time-additive Bellman structure. We show that the risk-minimizing control synthesis is equivalent to solving an HJB PDE whose boundary condition can be tuned appropriately to achieve a desired level of safety. Furthermore, it is shown that …
This paper studies a systemic risk control problem by the central bank, which dynamically plans monetary supply to stabilize the interbank system with borrowing and lending activities. Facing both heterogeneity among banks and the common noise, the central bank aims to find an optimal strategy to minimize the average distance between log-monetary reserves of all banks and the benchmark of some target steady levels. A weak formulation is adopted, and an optimal randomized control can be obtained in the system with finite banks by applying Ekeland's variational principle. As the number of banks …
This work presents a methodology to incorporate reliability constraints in the optimal power systems expansion planning problem. Besides LOLP and EPNS, traditionally used in power systems, this work proposes the use of the risk measures VaR (Value-at-Risk) and CVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk), widely used in financial markets. The explicit consideration of reliability constraints in the planning problem can be an extremely hard task and, in order to minimize computational effort, this work applies the Benders decomposition technique splitting the expansion planning problem into an investment p…
The paper solves constrained Dynkin games with risk-sensitive criteria, where two players are allowed to stop at two independent Poisson random intervention times, via the theory of backward stochastic differential equations. This generalizes the previous work of [Liang and Sun, Dynkin games with Poisson random intervention times, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, 2019] from the risk-neutral criteria and common signal times for both players to the risk-sensitive criteria and two heterogenous signal times. Furthermore, the paper establishes a connection of such constrained risk-sensitiv…
Projection-Free Functional Constrained Optimization for Risk Aversion and Sparsity Control
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology（赫尔曼·米利顿·斯图尔特工业与系统工程学院，佐治亚理工学院）；College of Management of Technology, EPFL（技术管理学院，苏黎世联邦理工学院）
