Predicting the popularity of items in rating networks is an interesting but challenging problem. This is especially so when an item has first appeared and has received very few ratings. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to predicting the future popularity of new items in rating networks, defining a new bipartite clustering coefficient to predict the popularity of movies and stories in the MovieLens and Digg networks respectively. We show that the clustering behaviour of the first user who rates a new item gives insight into the future popularity of that item. Our method predicts, with a success rate of over 65% for the MovieLens network and over 50% for the Digg network, the future popularity of an item. This is a major improvement on current results.
Predicting the future popularity of online content is highly important in many applications. Preferential attachment phenomena is encountered in scale free networks.Under it's influece popular items get more popular thereby resulting in long tailed distribution problem. Consequently, new items which can be popular (potential ones), are suppressed by the already popular items. This paper proposes a novel model which is able to identify potential items. It identifies the potentially popular items by considering the number of links or ratings it has recieved in recent past along with it's popular…
Social media, regarded as two-layer networks consisting of users and items, turn out to be the most important channels for access to massive information in the era of Web 2.0. The dynamics of human activity and item popularity is a crucial issue in social media networks. In this paper, by analyzing the growth of user activity and item popularity in four empirical social media networks, i.e., Amazon, Flickr, Delicious and Wikipedia, it is found that cross links between users and items are more likely to be created by active users and to be acquired by popular items, where user activity and item…
An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a complex evolving system has important implications in an array of areas. Here we propose a generative probabilistic framework using a reinforced Poisson process to model explicitly the process through which individual items gain their popularity. This model distinguishes itself from existing models via its capability of modeling the arrival process of popularity and its remarkable power at predicting the popularity of individual items. It possesses the flexibility of applying Bayesian treatment to further improve the pr…
We propose a simple model of an idealized online cultural market in which $N$ items, endowed with a hidden quality metric, are recommended to users by a ranking algorithm possibly biased by the current items' popularity. Our goal is to better understand the underlying mechanisms of the well-known fact that popularity bias can prevent higher-quality items from becoming more popular than lower-quality items, producing an undesirable misalignment between quality and popularity rankings. We do so under the assumption that users, having limited time/attention, are able to discriminate the best-qual…
Can we predict the future popularity of a song, movie or tweet? Recent work suggests that although it may be hard to predict an item's popularity when it is first introduced, peeking into its early adopters and properties of their social network makes the problem easier. We test the robustness of such claims by using data from social networks spanning music, books, photos, and URLs. We find a stronger result: not only do predictive models with peeking achieve high accuracy on all datasets, they also generalize well, so much so that models trained on any one dataset perform with comparable accu…
Hijacking online reviews: sparse manipulation and behavioral buffering in popularity-biased rating systems
College of Knowledge and Library Science, School of Informatics, Tsukuba University（知识与图书馆科学学院，信息学院，筑波大学）；College of Engineering, Shibaura Institute of Technology（工学院，柏市技术大学）
Know-Center GmbH（Know-Center有限公司）；Johannes Kepler University Linz（林茨约翰内斯·开普勒大学）；Graz University of Technology（格拉茨技术大学）
Research has shown that recommender systems are typically biased towards popular items, which leads to less popular items being underrepresented in recommendations. The recent work of Abdollahpouri et al. in the context of movie recommendations has shown that this popularity bias leads to unfair treatment of both long-tail items as well as users with little interest in popular items. In this paper, we reproduce the analyses of Abdollahpouri et al. in the context of music recommendation. Specifically, we investigate three user groups from the LastFM music platform that are categorized based on …
News articles are extremely time sensitive by nature. There is also intense competition among news items to propagate as widely as possible. Hence, the task of predicting the popularity of news items on the social web is both interesting and challenging. Prior research has dealt with predicting eventual online popularity based on early popularity. It is most desirable, however, to predict the popularity of items prior to their release, fostering the possibility of appropriate decision making to modify an article and the manner of its publication. In this paper, we construct a multi-dimensional…
An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a complex evolving system has important implications in a wide range of domains. Here we propose a deep learning attention mechanism to model the process through which individual items gain their popularity. We analyze the interpretability of the model with the four key phenomena confirmed independently in the previous studies of long-term popularity dynamics quantification, including the intrinsic quality, the aging effect, the recency effect and the Matthew effect. We analyze the effectiveness of introducing attention m…
The ability to model and predict the popularity dynamics of individual user generated items on online media has important implications in a wide range of areas. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model using a Self-Excited Hawkes Process(SEHP) to characterize the process through which individual microblogs gain their popularity. This model explicitly captures the triggering effect of each forwarding, distinguishing itself from the reinforced Poisson process based model where all previous forwardings are simply aggregated as a single triggering effect. We validate the proposed model by a…
Recommendation algorithms have been pointed out as one of the major culprits of misinformation spreading in the digital sphere. However, it is still unclear how these algorithms really propagate misinformation, e.g., it has not been shown which particular recommendation approaches are more prone to suggest misinforming items, or which internal parameters of the algorithms could be influencing more on their misinformation propagation capacity. Motivated by this fact, in this paper we present an analysis of the effect of some of the most popular recommendation algorithms on the spread of misinfo…
The dynamics of attention in social media tend to obey power laws. Attention concentrates on a relatively small number of popular items and neglecting the vast majority of content produced by the crowd. Although popularity can be an indication of the perceived value of an item within its community, previous research has hinted to the fact that popularity is distinct from intrinsic quality. As a result, content with low visibility but high quality lurks in the tail of the popularity distribution. This phenomenon can be particularly evident in the case of photo-sharing communities, where valuabl…
Peer recommendation is a crowdsourcing task that leverages the opinions of many to identify interesting content online, such as news, images, or videos. Peer recommendation applications often use social signals, e.g., the number of prior recommendations, to guide people to the more interesting content. How people react to social signals, in combination with content quality and its presentation order, determines the outcomes of peer recommendation, i.e., item popularity. Using Amazon Mechanical Turk, we experimentally measure the effects of social signals in peer recommendation. Specifically, a…
As we all know, users and item-providers are two main parties of participants in recommender systems. However, most existing research efforts on recommendation were focused on better serving users and overlooked the purpose of item-providers. This paper is devoted to improve the item exposure fairness for item-providers' objective, and keep the recommendation accuracy not decreased or even improved for users' objective. We propose to set stock volume constraints on items, to be specific, limit the maximally allowable recommended times of an item to be proportional to the frequency of its being…
Mobile P2P technology provides a scalable approach to content delivery to a large number of users on their mobile devices. In this work, we study the dissemination of a \emph{single} content (e.g., an item of news, a song or a video clip) among a population of mobile nodes. Each node in the population is either a \emph{destination} (interested in the content) or a potential \emph{relay} (not yet interested in the content). There is an interest evolution process by which nodes not yet interested in the content (i.e., relays) can become interested (i.e., become destinations) on learning about th…
Popularity of content in social media is unequally distributed, with some items receiving a disproportionate share of attention from users. Predicting which newly-submitted items will become popular is critically important for both hosts of social media content and its consumers. Accurate and timely prediction would enable hosts to maximize revenue through differential pricing for access to content or ad placement. Prediction would also give consumers an important tool for filtering the ever-growing amount of content. Predicting popularity of content in social media, however, is challenging du…
