The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials and reliability analysis in engineering. We derive a general solution for the model in the form of a product, and then a continuous approximation to the solution via the renewal equation describing age-structured population dynamics. This enables us to model a wide range of survival distributions, according to the choice of the mortality distribution. We provide empirical evidence for the validity of the model from a longitudinal data set of popular search engine queries over 114 months, showing that the survival function of these queries is closely matched by the solution for our model with power-law mortality.
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in different contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the essential dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials and reliability analysis in engineering. In our model, the only implicit assumption made is that the longer an actor has been in the system, the more likely it is to have failed. We derive a power-law distribution for the process and provide preliminary empirical evidence for the validity of the model from two well-…
The minimum-effort coordination game, having potentially important implications in both evolutionary biology and sociology, draws recently more attention for the fact that human behavior in this social dilemma is often inconsistent with the predictions of classic game theory. In the framework of classic game theory, any common effort level is a strict and trembling hand perfect Nash equilibrium, so that no desideratum is provided for selecting among them. Behavior experiments, however, show that the effort levels employed by subjects are inversely related to the effort costs. Here, we combine …
We present a stochastic model for a social network, where new actors may join the network, existing actors may become inactive and, at a later stage, reactivate themselves. Our model captures the evolution of the network, assuming that actors attain new relations or become active according to the preferential attachment rule. We derive the mean-field equations for this stochastic model and show that, asymptotically, the distribution of actors obeys a power-law distribution. In particular, the model applies to social networks such as wireless local area networks, where users connect to access-p…
Effects of Stochastic Games on Evolutionary Dynamics in Structured Populations
College of Artificial Intelligence, Southwest University（西南大学人工智能学院）；Business College, Southwest University（西南大学商学院）；Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor（马里博尔大学自然科学与数学学院）；Community Healthcare Center Dr. Adolf Drolc Maribor（马里博尔市阿道夫·德罗尔克博士社区健康中心）；Department of Physics, Kyung Hee University（庆熙大学物理系）；University College, Korea University（韩国大学大学院）；Institute of Technical Physics and Materials Science, Centre for Energy Research（能源研究中心技术物理与材料科学研究所）
Recent interest in human dynamics has stimulated the investigation of the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts, such as mobile phone networks and social media. In this paper, we extend the stochastic urn-based model proposed in \cite{FENN15} so that it can generate mixture models,in particular, a mixture of exponential distributions. The model is designed to capture the dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials, reliability analysis in engineering, and more recently in the analysis of large data sets recording human dynamics. The …
Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations is typically subject to noise, inducing effects which are not present in deterministic systems, including fixation and extinction. In the first part of this paper we investigate the phenomenon of drift reversal in finite populations, taking into account that drift is a local quantity in strategy space. Secondly, we study a simple imitation dynamics, and show that it can lead to fixation at internal mixed-strategy fixed points even in finite populations. Imitation in infinite populations is adequately described by conventional replicator dynamics…
We study the stochastic dynamics of evolutionary games, and focus on the so-called `stochastic slowdown' effect, previously observed in (Altrock et. al, 2010) for simple evolutionary dynamics. Slowdown here refers to the fact that a beneficial mutation may take longer to fixate than a neutral one. More precisely, the fixation time conditioned on the mutant taking over can show a maximum at intermediate selection strength. We show that this phenomenon is present in the prisoner's dilemma, and also discuss counterintuitive slowdown and speedup in coexistence games. In order to establish the micr…
The Elo system for rating chess players, also used in other games and sports, was adopted by the World Chess Federation over four decades ago. Although not without controversy, it is accepted as generally reliable and provides a method for assessing players' strengths and ranking them in official tournaments. It is generally accepted that the distribution of players' rating data is approximately normal but, to date, no stochastic model of how the distribution might have arisen has been proposed. We propose such an evolutionary stochastic model, which models the arrival of players into the rati…
We present a general framework to describe the evolutionary dynamics of an arbitrary number of types in finite populations based on stochastic differential equations (SDE). For large, but finite populations this allows to include demographic noise without requiring explicit simulations. Instead, the population size only rescales the amplitude of the noise. Moreover, this framework admits the inclusion of mutations between different types, provided that mutation rates, $μ$, are not too small compared to the inverse population size 1/N. This ensures that all types are almost always represented i…
We investigate the evolutionary dynamics in directed and/or weighted networks. We study the fixation probability of a mutant in finite populations in stochastic voter-type dynamics for several update rules. The fixation probability is defined as the probability of a newly introduced mutant in a wild-type population taking over the entire population. In contrast to the case of undirected and unweighted networks, the fixation probability of a mutant in directed networks is characterized not only by the degree of the node that the mutant initially invades but by the global structure of networks. …
The profound impact of Darwin's theory of evolution on biology has led to the acceptance of the theory in many complex systems that lie well beyond its original domain. Culture is one example that also exhibits key Darwinian evolutionary properties: Differential adoption of cultural variants (variation and selection), new entities imitating older ones (inheritance), and convergence toward the most suitable state (adaptation). In this work we present a framework for capturing the details of the evolutionary dynamics in cultural systems on the "meme"- the cultural analog of the biological gene-l…
Institutions and cultures evolve adaptively in response to the current environmental incentives, usually. But sometimes institutional change is due to stochastic drives beyond current fitness, including drift, path dependency, blind imitation, and complementary cooperation in fluctuating environments. Disentangling the selective and stochastic components of social system change enables us to identify the key features to organizational development in the long run. Evolutionary approaches provide organizational science abundant theories to demonstrate organizational evolution by tracking particu…
In times of plenty expectations rise, just as in times of crisis they fall. This can be mathematically described as a Win-Stay-Lose-Shift strategy with dynamic aspiration levels, where individuals aspire to be as wealthy as their average neighbor. Here we investigate this model in the realm of evolutionary social dilemmas on the square lattice and scale-free networks. By using the master equation and Monte Carlo simulations, we find that cooperators coexist with defectors in the whole phase diagram, even at high temptations to defect. We study the microscopic mechanism that is responsible for …
Evolutionary dynamics in finite populations is known to fixate eventually in the absence of mutation. We here show that a similar phenomenon can be found in stochastic game dynamical batch learning, and investigate fixation in learning processes in a simple 2x2 game, for two-player games with cyclic interaction, and in the context of the best-shot network game. The analogues of finite populations in evolution are here finite batches of observations between strategy updates. We study when and how such fixation can occur, and present results on the average time-to-fixation from numerical simulat…
Cooperation is a major factor in the evolution of human societies. The structure of human social networks, which affects the dynamics of cooperation and other interpersonal phenomena, have common structural signatures. One of these signatures is the tendency to organize as groups. Among the generative models that network theorists use to emulate this feature is the Stochastic Block Model (SBM). In this paper, we study evolutionary game dynamics on SBM networks. Using a recently-discovered duality between evolutionary games and coalescing random walks, we obtain analytical conditions such that …
Multiple species in the ecosystem are believed to compete cyclically for survival and thus maintain balance in nature. Stochasticity has also an inevitable role in this dynamics. Considering these attributes of nature, the stochastic dynamics of the rock-paper-scissor model based on the idea of cyclic dominance becomes an effective tool to capture different aspects of ecosystem. The evolutionary dynamics of this model crucially depends on different interactions representing different natural habits. In this framework we explore the role of mortality of individual organism in the collective sur…
