气象Geostationary Satellites在下击暴流预报中的应用
Downburst Prediction Applications of Meteorological Geostationary Satellites
摘要：
已经开发和评估了一套产品，以评估由当前一代地球静止业务环境卫星（GOES）产生的对流风暴下击暴流所带来的危害（13-15）。现有的一套GOES下击暴流预测产品采用GOES探测器计算对流下击暴流生成的有利环境剖面的概念模型的基础上的风险。微下击暴流风速潜势指数（MWPI）是一种诊断性临近预报产品，旨在推断有利下击暴流环境的属性：1）存在大的对流可用位能（CAPE），2）存在基于地面或升高的混合层，具有陡峭的温度直减率和垂直相对湿度梯度。这些条件促进强烈的对流下沉气流的相互作用，在高架或云下混合层与风暴降水核心。本文提供了一个更新的MWPI算法的评估，提出了最近的案例研究，证明有效的业务使用的MWPI产品在大西洋沿岸地区，并提出了验证结果，为美国大平原和中大西洋沿岸地区。此外，将概述GOES成像仪水蒸气（6.5μm）和热红外（11μm）通道之间的亮温差（BTD）的应用，该差异用于识别由于对流层中层干空气夹带而可能发展下击暴流的区域。
英文摘要：
A suite of products has been developed and evaluated to assess hazards presented by convective storm downbursts derived from the current generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) (13-15). The existing suite of GOES downburst prediction products employs the GOES sounder to calculate risk based on conceptual models of favorable environmental profiles for convective downburst generation. A diagnostic nowcasting product, the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index (MWPI), is designed to infer attributes of a favorable downburst environment: 1) the presence of large convective available potential energy (CAPE), and 2) the presence of a surface-based or elevated mixed layer with a steep temperature lapse rate and vertical relative humidity gradient. These conditions foster intense convective downdrafts upon the interaction of sub-saturated air in the elevated or sub-cloud mixed layer with the storm precipitation core. This paper provides an updated assessment of the MWPI algorithm, presents recent case studies demonstrating effective operational use of the MWPI product over the Atlantic coastal region, and presents validation results for the United States Great Plains and Mid-Atlantic coastal region. In addition, an application of the brightness temperature difference (BTD) between GOES imager water vapor (6.5μm) and thermal infrared (11μm) channels that identifies regions where downbursts are likely to develop, due to mid-tropospheric dry air entrainment, will be outlined.
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