海洋流氓波的可预报层

摘要：

预报是海洋异常波研究的核心目标，也是一个尚未解决的挑战。在这里，我们定义了一个地平线的海洋流氓波的可预测性和推导，通过广泛的计算实验，这些结构的第一个收敛的可预测性的时间尺度。我们表明，这个时间尺度是一个函数的海况以及强度（即机高）的预期流氓波。所提出的可预测性时间尺度建立了一个定量度量的各种机制，共同导致形成的流氓波的综合时间效应，是至关重要的流氓波预测的有效性评估，以及从广泛使用的模型方程的结果的关键评估。该方法和所提出的结果可以在其他系统承认流氓波，例如非线性光学和等离子体物理类似的影响。

英文摘要：

Prediction is a central goal and a yet-unresolved challenge in the investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational experiments, the first statistically-converged predictability time-scale for these structures. We show that this time-scale is a function of the sea state as well as the strength (i.e. overall height) of the expected rogue wave. The presented predictability time-scale establishes a quantitative metric on the combined temporal effect of the variety of mechanisms that together lead to the formation of a rogue wave, and is crucial for the assessment of validity of rogue waves predictions, as well as for the critical evaluation of results from the widely-used model equations. The methodology and presented results can have similar implications in other systems admitting rogue waves, e.g. nonlinear optics and plasma physics.

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