How to forecast next year's portfolio-wide credit default rate based on last year's default observations and the current score distribution? A classical approach to this problem consists of fitting a mixture of the conditional score distributions observed last year to the current score distribution. This is a special (simple) case of a finite mixture model where the mixture components are fixed and only the weights of the components are estimated. The optimum weights provide a forecast of next year's portfolio-wide default rate. We point out that the maximum-likelihood (ML) approach to fitting the mixture distribution not only gives an optimum but even an exact fit if we allow the mixture components to vary but keep their density ratio fix. From this observation we can conclude that the standard default rate forecast based on last year's conditional default rates will always be located between last year's portfolio-wide default rate and the ML forecast for next year. As an application example, then cost quantification is discussed. We also discuss how the mixture model based estimation methods can be used to forecast total loss. This involves the reinterpretation of an individual classification problem as a collective quantification problem.
This paper is a step-by-step tutorial for fitting a mixture distribution to data. It merely assumes the reader has the background of calculus and linear algebra. Other required background is briefly reviewed before explaining the main algorithm. In explaining the main algorithm, first, fitting a mixture of two distributions is detailed and examples of fitting two Gaussians and Poissons, respectively for continuous and discrete cases, are introduced. Thereafter, fitting several distributions in general case is explained and examples of several Gaussians (Gaussian Mixture Model) and Poissons are…
Traditional methods for unsupervised learning of finite mixture models require to evaluate the likelihood of all components of the mixture. This becomes computationally prohibitive when the number of components is large, as it is, for example, in the sum-product (transform) networks. Therefore, we propose to apply a combination of the expectation maximization and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to evaluate only a small number of, stochastically sampled, components, thus substantially reducing the computational cost. The Markov chain of component assignments is sequentially generated across t…
We determine the information-theoretic cutoff value on separation of cluster centers for exact recovery of cluster labels in a $K$-component Gaussian mixture model with equal cluster sizes. Moreover, we show that a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation of the $K$-means clustering method achieves such sharp threshold for exact recovery without assuming the symmetry of cluster centers.
Nonparametric mixture models based on the Dirichlet process are an elegant alternative to finite models when the number of underlying components is unknown, but inference in such models can be slow. Existing attempts to parallelize inference in such models have relied on introducing approximations, which can lead to inaccuracies in the posterior estimate. In this paper, we describe auxiliary variable representations for the Dirichlet process and the hierarchical Dirichlet process that allow us to sample from the true posterior in a distributed manner. We show that our approach allows scalable …
We consider clustering based on significance tests for Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). Our starting point is the SigClust method developed by Liu et al. (2008), which introduces a test based on the k-means objective (with k = 2) to decide whether the data should be split into two clusters. When applied recursively, this test yields a method for hierarchical clustering that is equipped with a significance guarantee. We study the limiting distribution and power of this approach in some examples and show that there are large regions of the parameter space where the power is low. We then introduce…
Mixture modeling, which considers the potential heterogeneity in data, is widely adopted for classification and clustering problems. Mixture models can be estimated using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which works with the complete estimating equations conditioned by the latent membership variables of the cluster assignment based on the hierarchical expression of mixture models. However, when the mixture components have light tails such as a normal distribution, the mixture model can be sensitive to outliers. This study proposes a method of weighted complete estimating equations (WCE)…
We study the community detection problem on a Gaussian mixture model, in which vertices are divided into $k\geq 2$ distinct communities. The major difference in our model is that the intensities for Gaussian perturbations are different for different entries in the observation matrix, and we do not assume that every community has the same number of vertices. We explicitly find the threshold for the exact recovery of the maximum likelihood estimation. Applications include the community detection on hypergraphs.
Gaussian Mixture Models are a powerful tool in Data Science and Statistics that are mainly used for clustering and density approximation. The task of estimating the model parameters is in practice often solved by the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm which has its benefits in its simplicity and low per-iteration costs. However, the EM converges slowly if there is a large share of hidden information or overlapping clusters. Recent advances in manifold optimization for Gaussian Mixture Models have gained increasing interest. We introduce an explicit formula for the Riemannian Hessian for G…
We quantify the parameter stability of a spherical Gaussian Mixture Model (sGMM) under small perturbations in distribution space. Namely, we derive the first explicit bound to show that for a mixture of spherical Gaussian $P$ (sGMM) in a pre-defined model class, all other sGMM close to $P$ in this model class in total variation distance has a small parameter distance to $P$. Further, this upper bound only depends on $P$. The motivation for this work lies in providing guarantees for fitting Gaussian mixtures; with this aim in mind, all the constants involved are well defined and distribution fr…
How can we train a statistical mixture model on a massive data set? In this work we show how to construct coresets for mixtures of Gaussians. A coreset is a weighted subset of the data, which guarantees that models fitting the coreset also provide a good fit for the original data set. We show that, perhaps surprisingly, Gaussian mixtures admit coresets of size polynomial in dimension and the number of mixture components, while being independent of the data set size. Hence, one can harness computationally intensive algorithms to compute a good approximation on a significantly smaller data set. …
This paper studies identifiability and convergence behaviors for parameters of multiple types in finite mixtures, and the effects of model fitting with extra mixing components. First, we present a general theory for strong identifiability, which extends from the previous work of Nguyen [2013] and Chen [1995] to address a broad range of mixture models and to handle matrix-variate parameters. These models are shown to share the same Wasserstein distance based optimal rates of convergence for the space of mixing distributions --- $n^{-1/2}$ under $W_1$ for the exact-fitted and $n^{-1/4}$ under $W…
Clustering time series into similar groups can improve models by combining information across like time series. While there is a well developed body of literature for clustering of time series, these approaches tend to generate clusters independently of model training which can lead to poor model fit. We propose a novel distributed approach that simultaneously clusters and fits autoregression models for groups of similar individuals. We apply a Wishart mixture model so as to cluster individuals while modeling the corresponding autocovariance matrices at the same time. The fitted Wishart scale …
A weighted likelihood approach for robust fitting of a mixture of multivariate Gaussian components is developed in this work. Two approaches have been proposed that are driven by a suitable modification of the standard EM and CEM algorithms, respectively. In both techniques, the M-step is enhanced by the computation of weights aimed at downweighting outliers. The weights are based on Pearson residuals stemming from robust Mahalanobis-type distances. Formal rules for robust clustering and outlier detection can be also defined based on the fitted mixture model. The behavior of the proposed metho…
In this paper, we show how a complete and exact Bayesian analysis of a parametric mixture model is possible in some cases when components of the mixture are taken from exponential families and when conjugate priors are used. This restricted set-up allows us to show the relevance of the Bayesian approach as well as to exhibit the limitations of a complete analysis, namely that it is impossible to conduct this analysis when the sample size is too large, when the data are not from an exponential family, or when priors that are more complex than conjugate priors are used.
Statistical analyses of directional or angular data have applications in a variety of fields, such as geology, meteorology and bioinformatics. There is substantial literature on descriptive and inferential techniques for univariate angular data, with the bivariate (or more generally, multivariate) cases receiving more attention in recent years. More specifically, the bivariate wrapped normal, von Mises sine and von Mises cosine distributions, and mixtures thereof, have been proposed for practical use. However, there is a lack of software implementing these distributions and the associated infe…
Exact Consistency Tests for Gaussian Mixture Filters using Normalized Deviation Squared Statistics
Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校斯米德航空航天工程科学学院）；Aurora Flight Sciences, a Boeing Company（波音公司旗下极光飞行科学公司）
In this article we propose an improvement on the sequential updating and greedy search (SUGS) algorithm Wang and Dunson for fast fitting of Dirichlet process mixture models. The SUGS algorithm provides a means for very fast approximate Bayesian inference for mixture data which is particularly of use when data sets are so large that many standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms cannot be applied efficiently, or take a prohibitively long time to converge. In particular, these ideas are used to initially interrogate the data, and to refine models such that one can potentially apply exa…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）
We present two different approaches for parameter learning in several mixture models in one dimension. Our first approach uses complex-analytic methods and applies to Gaussian mixtures with shared variance, binomial mixtures with shared success probability, and Poisson mixtures, among others. An example result is that $\exp(O(N^{1/3}))$ samples suffice to exactly learn a mixture of $k<N$ Poisson distributions, each with integral rate parameters bounded by $N$. Our second approach uses algebraic and combinatorial tools and applies to binomial mixtures with shared trial parameter $N$ and differi…
In this work, we develop a novel Bayesian estimation method for the Dirichlet process (DP) mixture of the inverted Dirichlet distributions, which has been shown to be very flexible for modeling vectors with positive elements. The recently proposed extended variational inference (EVI) framework is adopted to derive an analytically tractable solution. The convergency of the proposed algorithm is theoretically guaranteed by introducing single lower bound approximation to the original objective function in the VI framework. In principle, the proposed model can be viewed as an infinite inverted Dir…
Mixture models are useful in a wide array of applications to identify subpopulations in noisy overlapping distributions. For example, in multiplexed immunofluorescence (mIF), cell image intensities represent expression levels and the cell populations are a noisy mixture of expressed and unexpressed cells. Among mixture models, the gamma mixture model has the strength of being flexible in fitting skewed strictly positive data that occur in many biological measurements. However, the current estimation method uses numerical optimization within the expectation maximization algorithm and is computa…
Weakly stationary Gaussian processes (GPs) are the principal tool in the statistical approaches to the design and analysis of computer experiments (or Uncertainty Quantification). Such processes are fitted to computer model output using a set of training runs to learn the parameters of the process covariance kernel. The stationarity assumption is often adequate, yet can lead to poor predictive performance when the model response exhibits nonstationarity, for example, if its smoothness varies across the input space. In this paper, we introduce a diagnostic-led approach to fitting nonstationary …
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a fundamental tool in unsupervised machine learning. It is often used as an efficient way to solve Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation problems, especially for models with latent variables. It is also the algorithm of choice to fit mixture models: generative models that represent unlabelled points originating from $k$ different processes, as samples from $k$ multivariate distributions. In this work we define and use a quantum version of EM to fit a Gaussian Mixture Model. Given quantum access to a dataset of $n$ vectors of dimension $d$, our algori…
Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) and fiber tractography are the only methods to measure the structure of the white matter in the living human brain. The diffusion signal has been modelled as the combined contribution from many individual fascicles of nerve fibers passing through each location in the white matter. Typically, this is done via basis pursuit, but estimation of the exact directions is limited due to discretization. The difficulties inherent in modeling DWI data are shared by many other problems involving fitting non-parametric mixture models. Ekanadaham et al. pr…
The integrated completed likelihood (ICL) criterion has proven to be a very popular approach in model-based clustering through automatically choosing the number of clusters in a mixture model. This approach effectively maximises the complete data likelihood, thereby including the allocation of observations to clusters in the model selection criterion. However for practical implementation one needs to introduce an approximation in order to estimate the ICL. Our contribution here is to illustrate that through the use of conjugate priors one can derive an exact expression for ICL and so avoiding …
We study the problem of separating a mixture of distributions, all of which come from interventions on a known causal bayesian network. Given oracle access to marginals of all distributions resulting from interventions on the network, and estimates of marginals from the mixture distribution, we want to recover the mixing proportions of different mixture components. We show that in the worst case, mixing proportions cannot be identified using marginals only. If exact marginals of the mixture distribution were known, under a simple assumption of excluding a few distributions from the mixture, we…
This paper uses Gaussian mixture model instead of linear Gaussian model to fit the distribution of every node in Bayesian network. We will explain why and how we use Gaussian mixture models in Bayesian network. Meanwhile we propose a new method, called double iteration algorithm, to optimize the mixture model, the double iteration algorithm combines the expectation maximization algorithm and gradient descent algorithm, and it performs perfectly on the Bayesian network with mixture models. In experiments we test the Gaussian mixture model and the optimization algorithm on different graphs which…
Mixture models are a popular tool in model-based clustering. Such a model is often fitted by a procedure that maximizes the likelihood, such as the EM algorithm. At convergence, the maximum likelihood parameter estimates are typically reported, but in most cases little emphasis is placed on the variability associated with these estimates. In part this may be due to the fact that standard errors are not directly calculated in the model-fitting algorithm, either because they are not required to fit the model, or because they are difficult to compute. The examination of standard errors in model-b…
In this paper, we introduce and evaluate a data-driven staged mixture modeling technique for building density, regression, and classification models. Our basic approach is to sequentially add components to a finite mixture model using the structural expectation maximization (SEM) algorithm. We show that our technique is qualitatively similar to boosting. This correspondence is a natural byproduct of the fact that we use the SEM algorithm to sequentially fit the mixture model. Finally, in our experimental evaluation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of prediction an…
TU Graz（格拉茨工业大学）；OFAI（奥地利人工智能研究所）；TU Eindhoven（埃因霍温理工大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric Bayesian regression models that allow exact posterior inference, but exhibit high computational and memory costs. In order to improve scalability of GPs, approximate posterior inference is frequently employed, where a prominent class of approximation techniques is based on local GP experts. However, local-expert techniques proposed so far are either not well-principled, come with limited approximation guarantees, or lead to intractable models. In this paper, we introduce deep structured mixtures of GP experts, a stochastic process model whic…
Feature selection can facilitate the learning of mixtures of discrete random variables as they arise, e.g. in crowdsourcing tasks. Intuitively, not all workers are equally reliable but, if the less reliable ones could be eliminated, then learning should be more robust. By analogy with Gaussian mixture models, we seek a low-order statistical approach, and here introduce an algorithm based on the (pairwise) mutual information. This induces an order over workers that is well structured for the `one coin' model. More generally, it is justified by a goodness-of-fit measure and is validated empirica…
In some contexts, mixture models can fit certain variables well at the expense of others in ways beyond the analyst's control. For example, when the data include some variables with non-trivial amounts of missing values, the mixture model may fit the marginal distributions of the nearly and fully complete variables at the expense of the variables with high fractions of missing data. Motivated by this setting, we present a mixture model for mixed ordinal and nominal data that splits variables into two groups, focus variables and remainder variables. The model allows the analyst to specify a ric…
The two most extended density-based approaches to clustering are surely mixture model clustering and modal clustering. In the mixture model approach, the density is represented as a mixture and clusters are associated to the different mixture components. In modal clustering, clusters are understood as regions of high density separated from each other by zones of lower density, so that they are closely related to certain regions around the density modes. If the true density is indeed in the assumed class of mixture densities, then mixture model clustering allows to scrutinize more subtle situat…
Mixture models are powerful statistical models used in many applications ranging from density estimation to clustering and classification. When dealing with mixture models, there are many issues that the experimenter should be aware of and needs to solve. The MixEst toolbox is a powerful and user-friendly package for MATLAB that implements several state-of-the-art approaches to address these problems. Additionally, MixEst gives the possibility of using manifold optimization for fitting the density model, a feature specific to this toolbox. MixEst simplifies using and integration of mixture mod…
Finite mixture models are fitted to spherical data. Kent distributions are used for the components of the mixture because they allow considerable flexibility. Previous work on such mixtures has used an approximate maximum likelihood estimator for the parameters of a single component. However, the approximation causes problems when using the EM algorithm to estimate the parameters in a mixture model. Hence the exact maximum likelihood estimator is used here for the individual components. This paper is motivated by a challenging prize problem in structural bioinformatics of how proteins fold. It…
We define a class of probability distributions that we call simplicial mixture models, inspired by simplicial complexes from algebraic topology. The parameters of these distributions represent their topology and we show that it is possible and feasible to fit topological structure to data using a maximum-likelihood approach. We prove under reasonable assumptions that with a fixed number of vertices a distribution can be approximated arbitrarily closely by a simplicial mixture model when using enough simplices. Even if the topology is not of primary interest, when using a model that takes the t…
Inference in Bayesian statistics involves the evaluation of marginal likelihood integrals. We present algebraic algorithms for computing such integrals exactly for discrete data of small sample size. Our methods apply to both uniform priors and Dirichlet priors. The underlying statistical models are mixtures of independent distributions, or, in geometric language, secant varieties of Segre-Veronese varieties.
In spite of the interest in and appeal of convolution-based approaches for nonstationary spatial modeling, off-the-shelf software for model fitting does not as of yet exist. Convolution-based models are highly flexible yet notoriously difficult to fit, even with relatively small data sets. The general lack of pre-packaged options for model fitting makes it difficult to compare new methodology in nonstationary modeling with other existing methods, and as a result most new models are simply compared to stationary models. Using a convolution-based approach, we present a new nonstationary covarian…
When using mixture models it may be the case that the modeller has a-priori beliefs or desires about what the components of the mixture should represent. For example, if a mixture of normal densities is to be fitted to some data, it may be desirable for components to focus on capturing differences in location rather than scale. We introduce a framework called proximity penalty priors (PPPs) that allows this preference to be made explicit in the prior information. The approach is scale-free and imposes minimal restrictions on the posterior; in particular no arbitrary thresholds need to be set. …
In this paper we propose a new class of Dynamic Mixture Models (DAMMs) being able to sequentially adapt the mixture components as well as the mixture composition using information coming from the data. The information driven nature of the proposed class of models allows to exactly compute the full likelihood and to avoid computer intensive simulation schemes. An extensive Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the new proposed model can accurately approximate the more complicated Stochastic Dynamic Mixture Model previously introduced in the literature as well as other kind of models. The properti…
Employing nonparametric methods for density estimation has become routine in Bayesian statistical practice. Models based on discrete nonparametric priors such as Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) models are very attractive choices due to their flexibility and tractability. However, a common problem in fitting DPMs or other discrete models to data is that they tend to produce a large number of (sometimes) redundant clusters. In this work we propose a method that produces parsimonious mixture models (i.e. mixtures that discourage the creation of redundant clusters), without sacrificing flexibility…
Estimating the model evidence - or mariginal likelihood of the data - is a notoriously difficult task for finite and infinite mixture models and we reexamine here different Monte Carlo techniques advocated in the recent literature, as well as novel approaches based on Geyer (1994) reverse logistic regression technique, Chib (1995) algorithm, and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Applications are numerous. In particular, testing for the number of components in a finite mixture model or against the fit of a finite mixture model for a given dataset has long been and still is an issue of much interest…
False discovery rates (FDR) are typically estimated from a mixture of a null and an alternative distribution. Here, we study a complementary approach proposed by Rice and Spiegelhalter (2008) that uses as primary quantities the null model and a parametric family for the local false discovery rate. Specifically, we consider the half-normal decay and the beta-uniform mixture models as FDR threshold functions. Using simulations and analysis of real data we compare the performance of the Rice-Spiegelhalter approach with that of competing FDR estimation procedures. If the alternative model is missp…
