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arXiv 1404.3579astro-ph.SRastro-ph.EP
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从太阳到1 AU的22个日冕物质抛射的速度、方向和到达时间的连接

Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU

C. Möstl, K. Amla, J. R. Hall, P. C. Liewer, E. M. De Jong, R. C. Colaninno, A. M. Veronig, T. Rollett, M. Temmer, V. Peinhart, J. A. Davies, N. Lugaz, Y. D. Li… 展开作者

C. Möstl, K. Amla, J. R. Hall, P. C. Liewer, E. M. De Jong, R. C. Colaninno, A. M. Veronig, T. Rollett, M. Temmer, V. Peinhart, J. A. Davies, N. Lugaz, Y. D. Liu, C. J. Farrugia, J. G. Luhmann, B. Vršnak, R. A. Harrison, A. B. Galvin

摘要:

根据遥感图像预测日冕物质抛射(CME)的现场性质,预计将大大加强对空间天气的预测,并对研究CME与行星环境的相互作用具有普遍意义。我们研究的可行性,使用一个单一的日光层成像仪(HI)的仪器,成像的太阳风密度从太阳到1 AU,连接远程图像到CME的原位观测。我们比较的速度和到达时间的预测22 CME(在2008-2012年)相应的行星际日冕物质抛射(ICME)参数在原位观测站(STEREO塑料/IMPACT,风SWE/MFI)。该列表包括正面和背面、慢速和快速CME(直到$2700 \: km \: s^{-1}$)。我们使用SATPLOT工具构建的J图跟踪CME到太阳的$34.9 \pm 7.1$度伸长,导致预测提前时间为$-26.4 \pm 15.3$小时。我们使用的几何模型假设不同的CME前沿形状(固定- $Φ$,调和平均,自相似扩展),以及恒定的CME速度和方向。我们没有发现任何三种方法的预测能力的显着优势。预测和观察到的ICME到达时间之间的绝对差为$8.1 \pm 6.3$小时($rms$值为10.9小时)。速度与$284 \pm 288 \: km \: s^{-1}$内一致。对预测的经验修正将其性能提高到$6.1 \pm 5.0$小时($rms$值为7.9小时),并将速度提高到$53 \pm 50 \: km \: s^{-1}$。这些结果对太阳轨道器和远离日地线的空间气象任务很重要。

英文摘要:

Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to $2700 \: km \: s^{-1}$). We track the CMEs to $34.9 \pm 7.1$ degrees elongation from the Sun with J-maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of $-26.4 \pm 15.3$ hours. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (Fixed-$Φ$, Harmonic Mean, Self-Similar Expansion), and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is $8.1 \pm 6.3$ hours ($rms$ value of 10.9h). Speeds are consistent to within $284 \pm 288 \: km \: s^{-1}$. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to $6.1 \pm 5.0$ hours ($rms$ value of 7.9h), and for the speeds to $53 \pm 50 \: km \: s^{-1}$. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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