Validation of Kepler's Multiple Planet Candidates. II: Refined Statistical Framework and Descriptions of Systems of Special Interest
Jack J. Lissauer, Geoffrey W. Marcy, Stephen T. Bryson, Jason F. Rowe, Daniel Jontof-Hutter, Eric Agol, William J. Borucki, Joshua A. Carter, Eric B. Ford, Rona… 展开作者
Jack J. Lissauer, Geoffrey W. Marcy, Stephen T. Bryson, Jason F. Rowe, Daniel Jontof-Hutter, Eric Agol, William J. Borucki, Joshua A. Carter, Eric B. Ford, Ronald L. Gilliland, Rea Kolbl, Kimberly M. Star, Jason H. Steffen, Guillermo Torres
We extend the statistical analysis of Lissauer et al. (2012, ApJ 750, 112), which demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of Kepler candidate multiple transiting systems (multis) represent true transiting planets, and develop therefrom a procedure to validate large numbers of planet candidates in multis as bona fide exoplanets. We show that this statistical framework correctly estimates the abundance of false positives already identified around Kepler targets with multiple sets of transit-like signatures based on their abundance around targets with single sets of transit-like signatures. We estimate the number of multis that represent split systems of one or more planets orbiting each component of a binary star system. We use the high reliability rate for multis to validate more than one dozen particularly interesting multi-planet systems are validated in a companion paper by Rowe et al. (2014, ApJ, this issue). We note that few very short period (P < 1.6 days) planets orbit within multiple transiting planet systems and discuss possible reasons for their absence. There also appears to be a shortage of planets with periods exceeding a few months in multis.
Modeling Kepler transit light curves as false positives: Rejection of blend scenarios for Kepler-9, and validation of Kepler-9d, a super-Earth-size planet in a multiple system
Kepler 18-b, c, and d: A System Of Three Planets Confirmed by Transit Timing Variations, Lightcurve Validation, Spitzer Photometry and Radial Velocity Measurements
This paper discusses the transit model fitting and multiple-planet search algorithms and performance of the Kepler Science Data Processing Pipeline, developed by the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC). Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs), which are transit candidate events, are generated by the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) component of the pipeline and subsequently processed in the Data Validation (DV) component. The transit model is used in DV to fit TCEs in order to characterize planetary candidates and to derive parameters that are used in various diagnostic tests to classify them. After…
University of Warwick（华威大学）；The Alan Turing Institute（阿兰·图灵研究所）
Over 30% of the ~4000 known exoplanets to date have been discovered using 'validation', where the statistical likelihood of a transit arising from a false positive (FP), non-planetary scenario is calculated. For the large majority of these validated planets calculations were performed using the vespa algorithm (Morton et al. 2016). Regardless of the strengths and weaknesses of vespa, it is highly desirable for the catalogue of known planets not to be dependent on a single method. We demonstrate the use of machine learning algorithms, specifically a gaussian process classifier (GPC) reinforced …
We show that the claimed confirmed planet Kepler-452b (a.k.a. K07016.01, KIC 8311864) can not be confirmed using a purely statistical validation approach. Kepler detects many more periodic signals from instrumental effects than it does from transits, and it is likely impossible to confidently distinguish the two types of event at low signal-to-noise. As a result, the scenario that the observed signal is due to an instrumental artifact can't be ruled out with 99\% confidence, and the system must still be considered a candidate planet. We discuss the implications for other confirmed planets in o…
Fewer than 20 transiting Kepler planets have periods longer than one year. Our early search of the Kepler light curves revealed one such system, Kepler-1654 b (originally KIC~8410697b), which shows exactly two transit events and whose second transit occurred only 5 days before the failure of the second of two reaction wheels brought the primary Kepler mission to an end. A number of authors have also examined light curves from the Kepler mission searching for long period planets and identified this candidate. Starting in Sept. 2014 we began an observational program of imaging, reconnaissance sp…
The direct detection of new extrasolar planets from high-precision photometry data is commonly based on the observation of the transit signal of the planet as it passes in front of its star. Close-in planets, however, leave additional imprints in the light curve even if they do not transit. These are the so-called phase curve variations that include ellipsoidal, reflection and beaming effects. In Millholland & Laughlin (2017), the authors scrutinized the Kepler database looking for these phase variations from non-transiting planets. They found 60 candidates whose signals were compatible with p…
We have used the {\it Spitzer Space Telescope} to observe two transiting planetary systems orbiting low mass stars discovered in the \Kepler \Ktwo mission. The system K2-3 (EPIC 201367065) hosts three planets while EPIC 202083828 (K2-26) hosts a single planet. Observations of all four objects in these two systems confirm and refine the orbital and physical parameters of the planets. The refined orbital information and more precise planet radii possible with \Spitzer will be critical for future observations of these and other \Ktwo targets. For K2-3b we find marginally significant evidence for …
A main goal of NASA's Kepler Mission is to establish the frequency of potentially habitable Earth-size planets (eta Earth). Relatively few such candidates identified by the mission can be confirmed to be rocky via dynamical measurement of their mass. Here we report an effort to validate 18 of them statistically using the BLENDER technique, by showing that the likelihood they are true planets is far greater than that of a false positive. Our analysis incorporates follow-up observations including high-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, high-resolution imaging, and information fro…
The Kepler Mission was designed to identify and characterize transiting planets in the Kepler Field of View and to determine their occurrence rates. Emphasis was placed on identification of Earth-size planets orbiting in the Habitable Zone of their host stars. Science data were acquired for a period of four years. Long-cadence data with 29.4 min sampling were obtained for ~200,000 individual stellar targets in at least one observing quarter in the primary Kepler Mission. Light curves for target stars are extracted in the Kepler Science Data Processing Pipeline, and are searched for transiting …
The NASA Kepler mission has discovered thousands of new planetary candidates, many of which have been confirmed through follow-up observations. A primary goal of the mission is to determine the occurrance rate of terrestrial-size planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ) of their host stars. Here we provide a list of HZ exoplanet candidates from the Kepler Data Release 24 Q1-Q17 data vetting process. This work was undertaken as part of the Kepler Habitable Zone Working Group. We use a variety of criteria regarding HZ boundaries and planetary sizes to produce complete lists of HZ candidates, inclu…
Kepler-730 is a planetary system hosting a statistically validated hot Jupiter in a 6.49-day orbit and an additional transiting candidate in a 2.85-day orbit. We use spectroscopic radial velocities from the APOGEE-2N instrument, Robo-AO contrast curves, and Gaia distance estimates to statistically validate the planetary nature of the additional Earth-sized candidate. We perform astrophysical false positive probability calculations for the candidate using the available Kepler data and bolster the statistical validation by using radial velocity data to exclude a family of possible binary star so…
DELOS: Contrastive Deep Learning for Low-SNR Blind Transit Searches in Kepler Photometry
Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200030, China（上海天文台，中国科学院，上海200030，中国）；School of Astronomy and Space Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China（中国科学院大学天文与空间科学学院，北京101408，中国）；Science Talent Training Center, Gainesville, FL, 32606 USA（科学人才培训中心，佛罗里达州盖恩斯维尔，32606 USA）
Influence of Stellar Multiplicity On Planet Formation. I. Evidence of Suppressed Planet Formation Due to Stellar Companions Within 20 AU and Validation of Four Planets From the Kepler Multiple Planet Candidates
We re-examine the statistical confirmation of small long-period Kepler planet candidates in light of recent improvements in our understanding of the occurrence of systematic false alarms in this regime. Using the final Data Release 25 (DR25) Kepler planet candidate catalog statistics, we find that the previously confirmed single planet system Kepler-452b no longer achieves a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis and is not considered statistically validated in agreement with the finding of Mullally et al. (2018). For multiple planet systems, we find that the planet prior enhancement for b…
We revisit the discovery and implications of the first candidate systems to contain multiple transiting exoplanets. These systems were discovered using data from the Kepler space telescope. The initial paper, presenting five systems (Steffen et al. 2010), was posted online at the time the project released the first catalog of Kepler planet candidates. The first extensive analysis of the observed population of multis was presented in a follow-up paper published the following year (Lissauer et al. 2011a). Multiply-transiting systems allow us to answer a variety of important questions related to …
We present astrophysical false positive probability calculations for every Kepler Object of Interest (KOI)---the first large-scale demonstration of a fully automated transiting planet validation procedure. Out of 7056 KOIs, we determine that 1935 have probabilities <1% to be astrophysical false positives, and thus may be considered validated planets. 1284 of these have not yet been validated or confirmed by other methods. In addition, we identify 428 KOIs likely to be false positives that have not yet been identified as such, though some of these may be a result of unidentified transit timing …
Many extrasolar systems possessing planets in mean-motion resonance or resonant chain have been discovered to date. The transit method coupled with transit timing variation analysis provides an insight into the physical and orbital parameters of the systems, but suffers from observational limitations. When a (near-)resonant planetary system resides in the dynamical neighbourhood of a stable periodic orbit, its long-term stability, and thus survival, can be guaranteed. We use the intrinsic property of the periodic orbits, namely their linear horizontal and vertical stability, to validate or fur…
(abridged) Kepler-278 and Kepler-391 are two of the three evolved stars known to date on the RGB to host multiple short-period transiting planets. Moreover, these planets are among the smallest discovered around RGB stars. Here we present a detailed stellar and planetary characterization of these remarkable systems. Based on high-quality spectra from Gemini-GRACES for Kepler-278 and Kepler-391, we obtained refined stellar parameters and precise chemical abundances for 25 elements. Also, combining our new stellar parameters with a photodynamical analysis of the Kepler light curves, we determine…
A commissioning survey of the Lookout Observatory has observed fourteen faint (V ~ 13 to 17) variables in the region of the exoplanet Kepler-8b. Three of these are variable star candidates discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) and confirmed here. The ATLAS survey identified 315,000 probable variables within its wide-field survey in 2018. The faintness (down to r ~ 18) and small amplitudes (down to 0.02 mag) included in these candidates makes external validation difficult. The confirmation of this handful of variable stars lends credibility to the ATLAS catalog…
During its four years of photometric observations, the Kepler space telescope detected thousands of exoplanets and exoplanet candidates. One of Kepler's greatest heritages has been the confirmation and characterization of hundreds of multi-planet systems via Transit Timing Variations (TTVs). However, there are many interesting candidate systems displaying TTVs on such long time scales that the existing Kepler observations are of insufficient length to confirm and characterize them by means of this technique. To continue with Kepler's unique work we have organized the "Kepler Object of Interest…
This paper introduces a new method of inferring the intrinsic exoplanet population from Kepler data, based on the assumption that the frequency of exoplanets can be represented by a smooth function of planet radius and period. The method is applied to the two most recent data releases from the Kepler project, q1-16 and q1-17, over the range of periods 0.5 to 512 days, and radii 0.5 to 16 Earth radii. Both of these releases have known biases, with the first believed to contain excess false positives, and the second excess false negatives, so any analysis of them should be viewed with caution. W…
Space-based photometric missions widely use statistical validation tools for vetting transiting planetary candidates, particularly when other traditional methods of planet confirmation are unviable. In this paper, we refute the planetary nature of three previously validated planets -- Kepler-854~b, Kepler-840~b, and Kepler-699~b -- and possibly a fourth, Kepler-747~b, using updated stellar parameters from Gaia and phase-curve analysis. In all four cases, the inferred physical radii rule out their planetary nature given the stellar radiation the companions receive. For Kepler-854~b, the mass de…
Refined parameters, formation, and dynamical stability of the wild exoplanet system K2-312=HD 80653
INAF - Osservatorio Astrofisico di Torino（意大利国家天体物理研究所都灵天文台）；INAF - Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera（意大利国家天体物理研究所布雷拉天文台）；Fundación Galileo Galilei-INAF（伽利略-意大利国家天体物理研究所基金会）；Centre for Planetary Sciences, The University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学行星科学中心）；SUPA, Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, The Royal Observatory（爱丁堡大学天文学研究所超级物理联盟皇家天文台）；Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Galileo Galilei”, Università di Padova（帕多瓦大学伽利莱物理学与天文学系）；Space sciences, technologies and astrophysics research Institute, Université de Liège（列日大学空间科学与技术及天体物理研究所）；Astrobiology Research Unit, Université de Liège（列日大学天体生物学研究组）；Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian（哈佛史密森尼天体物理中心）；Department of Physics, Engineering and Astronomy, Stephen F. Austin State University（斯蒂芬·F·奥斯汀州立大学物理、工程与天文学系）；Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica, Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo（意大利国家天体物理研究所巴勒莫天文台）
We apply, for the first time, the Transit Least Squares (TLS) algorithm to search for new transiting exoplanets. TLS is a successor to the Box Least Squares (BLS) algorithm, which has served as a standard tool for the detection of periodic transits. In this proof-of-concept paper, we demonstrate how TLS finds small planets that have previously been missed. We showcase TLS' capabilities using the K2 EVEREST-detrended light curve of the star K2-32 (EPIC205071984) that was known to have three transiting planets. TLS detects these known Neptune-sized planets K2-32b, d, and c in an iterative search…
SOPHIE velocimetry of Kepler transit candidates: X KOI-142c: first radial velocity confirmation of a non-transiting exoplanet discovered by transit timing
系外行星KOI-142 b（开普勒-88 b）显示出半振幅为$\sim 12\,$小时的凌日时间变化（TTV），赢得了“凌日变化之王”的绰号。在开普勒的数据中只发现了行星b的凌日，其轨道周期为$\sim 10.92\,$天，半径为$\sim 0.36$ R $_{\mathrm{Jup}}$。Nesvorny等人（2013年）分析了KOI-142 b的TTV和凌日持续时间变化（TDV），他们发现了一个独特的伴星扰动行星的解决方案。作者预测了一颗外层非凌日伴星KOI-142 c，质量为$0.626\pm 0.03$ M $_{\mathrm{Jup}}$，周期为$22.3397^{+0.0021}_{-0.0018}\,$天，因此接近于与内层凌日行星的2：1平均运动共振。我们报告独立确认KOI-142 c使用径向速度观测与SOPHIE光谱仪在上普罗旺斯天文台。我们得到了一个轨道周期$22.10 \pm 0.25\,$天和一个最小行星质量$0.76^{+0.32}_{0.16}\,$ M $_{\mathrm{Jup}}$，都与以前的过境时间分析的预测吻合得很好。因此，这是第一次确认一颗非凌日行星的径向速度，发现了凌日时间的变化，为TTV技术提供了独立的验证。
The extended Kepler mission (K2) has revealed more than 500 transiting planets in roughly 500,000 stellar light curves. All of these were found either with the box least-squares algorithm or by visual inspection. Here we use our new transit least-squares (TLS) algorithm to search for additional planets around all K2 stars that are currently known to host at least one planet. We discover and statistically validate 17 new planets with radii ranging from about 0.7 Earth radii to roughly 2.2 Earth radii and a median radius of 1.18 Earth radii. EPIC201497682.03, with a radius of 0.692 (-0.048, +0.0…
WATSON-Net: Vetting, Validation, and Analysis of Transits from Space Observations with Neural Networks
Dpto. Física Teórica y del Cosmos. Universidad de Granada（格拉纳达大学理论物理与宇宙学系）；AI Engineering, Avature, Spain（Avature人工智能工程）；CITIC-Research Center of Information and Communication Technologies, University of A Coruña（阿维拉大学信息与通信技术研究中心）；CIGUS CITIC - Department of Computer Science and Information Technologies, University of A Coruña（阿维拉大学CIGUS CITIC-计算机科学与信息科技系）
