一个解释种群增长行为的非唯象模型
A Non-Phenomenological Model to Explain Population Growth Behaviors
摘要：
本文提出了一个非现象学的人口增长模型，该模型是基于组成系统的个体之间的相互作用。它被假定为个体相互作用的合作和竞争。作为这种相互作用的结果，它表明，一些著名的现象学人口增长模型（如马尔萨斯，Verhulst，Gompertz，理查兹，冯Foerster，和幂律增长模型）是这里提出的模型的特殊情况。此外，其他生态行为也可以被看作是这种相互作用的涌现行为。例如，观察到Allee效应，这是某些种群在小种群规模下增加种群增长率的特征。而在文献中提出的模型解释的Allee效应与现象学的想法，在这里提出的模型解释这种效果的个人之间的相互作用。该模型与经验数据进行了测试，以证明其配方。另一个有趣的宏观涌现行为，从这里提出的模型是在有限的时间内观察到的人口分歧制度。有趣的是，在人类的全球人口增长中观察到了这一特征。结果表明，在合作制度下，该模型非常适合自公元1000年以来的人口增长数据。
英文摘要：
This paper proposes a non-phenomenological model of population growth that is based on the interactions between the individuals that compose the system. It is assumed that the individuals interact cooperatively and competitively. As a consequence of this interaction, it is shown that some well-known phenomenological population growth models (such as the Malthus, Verhulst, Gompertz, Richards, Von Foerster, and power-law growth models) are special cases of the model presented herein. Moreover, other ecological behaviors can be seen as the emergent behavior of such interactions. For instance, the Allee effect, which is the characteristic of some populations to increase the population growth rate at a small population size, is observed. Whereas the models presented in the literature explain the Allee effect with phenomenological ideas, the model presented here explains this effect by the interactions between the individuals. The model is tested with empirical data to justify its formulation. Other interesting macroscopic emergent behavior from the model proposed here is the observation of a regime of population divergence at a finite time. It is interesting that this characteristic is observed in humanity's global population growth. It is shown that in a regime of cooperation, the model fits very well to the human population growth data since 1000 A.D.
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