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arXiv 1402.2776astro-ph.SR
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混乱的太阳周期II。宇宙成因10Be数据分析

The chaotic solar cycle II. Analysis of cosmogenic 10Be data

A. Hanslmeier, R. Brajsa, J. Calogovic, B. Vrsnak, D. Ruzdjak, F. Steinhilber, C. L. MacLeod, Z. Ivezic, I. Skokic

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8 pages, 11 figures
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摘要：

上下文利用极地冰芯中测得的宇宙成因放射性核素10Be，利用太阳活动重建方法，研究了太阳活动在长时间间隔内的变化。方法.应用非线性动力学方法，利用9300多年来的太阳活动代用指标研究了太阳活动周期。利用嵌入维数或伪近邻等非线性动力学参数来表征系统的复杂性，并将延迟坐标方法应用于时间序列。我们还适合阻尼随机游走模型，它准确地描述了类星体的变化，太阳10 Be数据和调查相应的功率谱分布。利用傅立叶分析和小波分析对数据序列进行周期搜索。长期尺度上的太阳活动处于混沌行为的边缘。这可以解释观测到的持续时间较长的太阳活动最小值的间歇期。通过消除特定周期（使用380年和57年的周期）以下的变化来过滤数据，产生了更有规律的太阳活动行为。10Be数据与14C数据的结果之间的比较显示出许多相似之处。这两种宇宙成因同位素相互之间以及与太阳活动之间都有很强的相关性。最后，我们发现，一系列的阻尼随机游走模型提供了一个很好的拟合10Be数据与一个固定的特征时间尺度为1000年，这是大致一致的准周期发现的傅立叶和小波分析。

英文摘要：

Context. The variations of solar activity over long time intervals using a solar activity reconstruction based on the cosmogenic radionuclide 10Be measured in polar ice cores are studied. Methods. By applying methods of nonlinear dynamics, the solar activity cycle is studied using solar activity proxies that have been reaching into the past for over 9300 years. The complexity of the system is expressed by several parameters of nonlinear dynamics, such as embedding dimension or false nearest neighbors, and the method of delay coordinates is applied to the time series. We also fit a damped random walk model, which accurately describes the variability of quasars, to the solar 10Be data and investigate the corresponding power spectral distribution. The periods in the data series were searched by the Fourier and wavelet analyses. The solar activity on the long-term scale is found to be on the edge of chaotic behavior. This can explain the observed intermittent period of longer lasting solar activity minima. Filtering the data by eliminating variations below a certain period (the periods of 380 yr and 57 yr were used) yields a far more regular behavior of solar activity. A comparison between the results for the 10Be data with the 14C data shows many similarities. Both cosmogenic isotopes are strongly correlated mutually and with solar activity. Finally, we find that a series of damped random walk models provides a good fit to the 10Be data with a fixed characteristic time scale of 1000 years, which is roughly consistent with the quasi-periods found by the Fourier and wavelet analyses.

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