不确定非线性系统的概率模型验证

Probabilistic performance validation of deep learning-based robust NMPC controllers

Solving nonlinear model predictive control problems in real time is still an important challenge despite of recent advances in computing hardware, optimization algorithms and tailored implementations. This challenge is even greater when uncertainty is present due to disturbances, unknown parameters or measurement and estimation errors. To enable the application of advanced control schemes to fast systems and on low-cost embedded hardware, we propose to approximate a robust nonlinear model controller using deep learning and to verify its quality using probabilistic validation techniques. We pro…

A probabilistic validation approach for penalty function design in Stochastic Model Predictive Control

In this paper, we consider a stochastic Model Predictive Control able to account for effects of additive stochastic disturbance with unbounded support, and requiring no restrictive assumption on either independence nor Gaussianity. We revisit the rather classical approach based on penalty functions, with the aim of designing a control scheme that meets some given probabilistic specifications. The main difference with previous approaches is that we do not recur to the notion of probabilistic recursive feasibility, and hence we do not consider separately the unfeasible case. In particular, two p…

凸场景程序后验概率界限的后验概率界限与验证测试

A Posteriori Probabilistic Bounds of Convex Scenario Programs with Validation Tests

本文提出了一种新的后验界限，用于凸场景程序的后验概率评估，结合支持约束的实现和样本外验证数据的表现，以提高随机解的风险评估。

Kalman Filtering with Probabilistic Uncertainty in System Parameters

In this paper, we propose a robust Kalman filtering framework for systems with probabilistic uncertainty in system parameters. We consider two cases, namely discrete time systems, and continuous time systems with discrete measurements. The uncertainty, characterized by mean and variance of the states, is propagated using conditional expectations and polynomial chaos expansion framework. The results obtained using the proposed filter are compared with existing robust filters in the literature. The proposed filter demonstrates better performance in terms of root mean squared error and rate of co…

Probabilistic feasibility guarantees for solution sets to uncertain variational inequalities

We develop a data-driven approach to the computation of a-posteriori feasibility certificates to the solution sets of variational inequalities affected by uncertainty. Specifically, we focus on instances of variational inequalities with a deterministic mapping and an uncertain feasibility set, and represent uncertainty by means of scenarios. Building upon recent advances in the scenario approach literature, we quantify the robustness properties of the entire set of solutions of a variational inequality, with feasibility set constructed using the scenario approach, against a new unseen realizat…

A New Distribution-Free Concept for Representing, Comparing, and Propagating Uncertainty in Dynamical Systems with Kernel Probabilistic Programming

This work presents the concept of kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming in the context of stochastic systems. We propose formulations to represent, compare, and propagate uncertainties for fairly general stochastic dynamics in a distribution-free manner. The new tools enjoy sound theory rooted in functional analysis and wide applicability as demonstrated in distinct numerical examples. The implication of this new concept is a new mode of thinking about the statistical nature of uncertainty in dynamical systems.