The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and many other parametric and nonparametric Bayesian models fall within the remit of this framework; many problems arising in modern data analysis do not. This article provides an introduction to Bayesian models of graphs, matrices, and other data that can be modeled by random structures. We describe results in probability theory that generalize de Finetti's theorem to such data and discuss their relevance to nonparametric Bayesian modeling. With the basic ideas in place, we survey example models available in the literature; applications of such models include collaborative filtering, link prediction, and graph and network analysis. We also highlight connections to recent developments in graph theory and probability, and sketch the more general mathematical foundation of Bayesian methods for other types of data beyond sequences and arrays.
Edge-exchangeable probabilistic network models generate edges as an i.i.d.~sequence from a discrete measure, providing a simple means for statistical inference of latent network properties. The measure is often constructed using the self-product of a realization from a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) discrete prior; but unlike in standard BNP models, the self-product measure prior is not conjugate the likelihood, hindering the development of exact simulation and inference algorithms. Approximation via finite truncation of the discrete measure is a straightforward alternative, but incurs an unknow…
Motivated by the problem of designing inference-friendly Bayesian nonparametric models in probabilistic programming languages, we introduce a general class of partially exchangeable random arrays which generalizes the notion of hierarchical exchangeability introduced in Austin and Panchenko (2014). We say that our partially exchangeable arrays are DAG-exchangeable since their partially exchangeable structure is governed by a collection of Directed Acyclic Graphs. More specifically, such a random array is indexed by $\mathbb{N}^{|V|}$ for some DAG $G=(V,E)$, and its exchangeability structure is…
Recent advances in Bayesian models for random partitions have led to the formulation and exploration of Exchangeable Sequences of Clusters (ESC) models. Under ESC models, it is the cluster sizes that are exchangeable, rather than the observations themselves. This property is particularly useful for obtaining microclustering behavior, whereby cluster sizes grow sublinearly in the number of observations, as is common in applications such as record linkage, sparse networks and genomics. Unfortunately, the exchangeable clusters property comes at the cost of projectivity. As a consequence, in contr…
Maximum entropy network ensembles have been very successful in modelling sparse network topologies and in solving challenging inference problems. However the sparse maximum entropy network models proposed so far have fixed number of nodes and are typically not exchangeable. Here we consider hierarchical models for exchangeable networks in the sparse limit, i.e. with the total number of links scaling linearly with the total number of nodes. The approach is grand canonical, i.e. the number of nodes of the network is not fixed a priori: it is finite but can be arbitrarily large. In this way the g…
Entity resolution (record linkage or deduplication) is the process of identifying and linking duplicate records in databases. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian graphical approach for entity resolution that links records to latent entities, where the prior representation on the linkage structure is exchangeable. First, we adopt a flexible and tractable set of priors for the linkage structure, which corresponds to a special class of random partition models. Second, we propose a more realistic distortion model for categorical/discrete record attributes, which corrects a logical inconsistency w…
Discrete Bayesian nonparametric models whose expectation is a convex linear combination of a point mass at some point of the support and a diffuse probability distribution allow to incorporate strong prior information, while still being extremely flexible. Recent contributions in the statistical literature have successfully implemented such a modelling strategy in a variety of applications, including density estimation, nonparametric regression and model-based clustering. We provide a thorough study of a large class of nonparametric models we call inner spike and slab hNRMI models, which are o…
The paper discusses shrinkage priors which impose increasing shrinkage in a sequence of parameters. We review the cumulative shrinkage process (CUSP) prior of Legramanti et al. (2020), which is a spike-and-slab shrinkage prior where the spike probability is stochastically increasing and constructed from the stick-breaking representation of a Dirichlet process prior. As a first contribution, this CUSP prior is extended by involving arbitrary stick-breaking representations arising from beta distributions. As a second contribution, we prove that exchangeable spike-and-slab priors, which are popul…
A class of measure-valued Markov chains and Bayesian nonparametrics
自从（Math. Proc. Cambridge Philos.Soc.105（1989）579- 585）的开创性论文以来，测度值马尔可夫链引起了人们对贝叶斯非参数的兴趣，在该论文中引入了具有狄利克雷过程定律作为唯一不变测度的马尔可夫链。本文提出并研究了一类由可交换随机变量序列定义的测度值马尔可夫链。导出了这一新类的渐近性质，并讨论了与贝叶斯非参数混合模型和（Math. Proc. Cambridge Philos.Soc.105（1989）579- 585）提出的马尔可夫链的推广有关的应用。这些结果及其应用再次突出了贝叶斯非参数和测度值马尔可夫链理论之间的相互作用。
We consider inference for high-dimensional separately and jointly exchangeable arrays where the dimensions may be much larger than the sample sizes. For both exchangeable arrays, we first derive high-dimensional central limit theorems over the rectangles and subsequently develop novel multiplier bootstraps with theoretical guarantees. These theoretical results rely on new technical tools such as Hoeffding-type decomposition and maximal inequalities for the degenerate components in the Hoeffiding-type decomposition for the exchangeable arrays. We exhibit applications of our methods to uniform c…
Finite mixtures are a flexible modeling tool for irregularly shaped densities and samples from heterogeneous populations. When modeling with mixtures using an exchangeable prior on the component features, the component labels are arbitrary and are indistinguishable in posterior analysis. This makes it impossible to attribute any meaningful interpretation to the marginal posterior distributions of the component features. We propose a model in which a small number of observations are assumed to arise from some of the labeled component densities. The resulting model is not exchangeable, allowing …
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of interest, $y$, conditional on predictors, $x$. Bayesian prediction is well-calibrated when the model is true, but the predictive intervals may exhibit poor empirical coverage when the model is misspecified, under the so called ${\cal{M}}$-open perspective. In contrast, conformal inference provides finite sample frequentist guarantees on predictive confidence interva…
TU Wien（维也纳工业大学）；Boston University（波士顿大学）；University of Guelph（圭尔夫大学）；Vector Institute（矢量研究所）；University of Texas, Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
As the availability and importance of temporal interaction data--such as email communication--increases, it becomes increasingly important to understand the underlying structure that underpins these interactions. Often these interactions form a multigraph, where we might have multiple interactions between two entities. Such multigraphs tend to be sparse yet structured, and their distribution often evolves over time. Existing statistical models with interpretable parameters can capture some, but not all, of these properties. We propose a dynamic nonparametric model for interaction multigraphs t…
Motivated by statistical practice, category theory terminology is used to introduce Borel data structures and study exchangeability in an abstract framework. A generalization of de Finetti's theorem is shown and natural transformations are used to present functional representation theorems (FRTs). Proofs of the latter are based on a classical result by D.N.Hoover providing a functional representation for exchangeable arrays indexed by finite tuples of integers, together with an universality result for Borel data structures. A special class of Borel data structures are array-type data structure…
