Robust and semiparametric statistics are of the same historical origin and largely employ the same locally asymptotically normal framework. In our talk, we consider he following more intrinsic connections of both fields:
1) Robust influence curves for semiparametric models with infinite dimensional nuisance parameter; for example, for semiparametric regression (Cox), and mixture models (Neyman--Scott).
2) Adaptiveness in the sense of Stein's necessary condition of robust neighborhood models and estimators with respect to a finite dimensional nuisance parameter; for example, location, linear regression, and ARMA.
3) Semiparametric treatment of gross error deviations from an ideal model as an infinite dimensional nuisance parameter, by projection on balls; for testing, an asymptotic version of the Huber--Strassen maximin result is thus obtained.
4) Uniform and nonuniform asymptotic normality of robust and adaptive estimators, respectively, in regression and time series models.
5) Fragility of optimal one-sided tests and confidence limits obtained for convex tangent cones, by projection on cones, as opposed to stability of corresponding procedures, even two-sided, for linear tangent spaces.
6) The unknown neighborhood radius as a nuisance parameter in robustness.
The investigation relies on asymptotic techniques and on numerical evaluations of robust estimates.
The construction under 1) of robust estimates which are adaptive, an appropriate LAM estimation bound for balls under 3), and the minimization of the norm under 5) on a certain restricted set of differences of tangents from a cone are examples of challenging open problems.
This paper is first devoted to study an adaptive wavelet based estimator of the long memory parameter for linear processes in a general semi-parametric frame. This is an extension of Bardet {\it et al.} (2008) which only concerned Gaussian processes. Moreover, the definition of the long memory parameter estimator is modified and asymptotic results are improved even in the Gaussian case. Finally an adaptive goodness-of-fit test is also built and easy to be employed: it is a chi-square type test. Simulations confirm the interesting properties of consistency and robustness of the adaptive estimat…
In this paper, we show that the central limit theorem (CLT) satisfied by the data-driven Multidimensional Increment Ratio (MIR) estimator of the memory parameter d established in Bardet and Dola (2012) for d $\in$ (--0.5, 0.5) can be extended to a semiparametric class of Gaussian fractionally integrated processes with memory parameter d $\in$ (--0.5, 1.25). Since the asymptotic variance of this CLT can be estimated, by data-driven MIR tests for the two cases of stationarity and non-stationarity, so two tests are constructed distinguishing the hypothesis d \textless{} 0.5 and d $\ge$ 0.5, as we…
Analyzing polytomous response from a complex survey scheme, like stratified or cluster sampling is very crucial in several socio-economics applications. We present a class of minimum quasi weighted density power divergence estimators for the polytomous logistic regression model with such a complex survey. This family of semiparametric estimators is a robust generalization of the maximum quasi weighted likelihood estimator exploiting the advantages of the popular density power divergence measure. Accordingly robust estimators for the design effects are also derived. Robust testing of general li…
We develop a class of tests for semiparametric vector autoregressive (VAR) models with unspecified innovation densities, based on the recent measure-transportation-based concepts of multivariate {\it center-outward ranks} and {\it signs}. We show that these concepts, combined with Le Cam's asymptotic theory of statistical experiments, yield novel testing procedures, which (a)~are valid under a broad class of innovation densities (possibly non-elliptical, skewed, and/or with infinite moments), (b)~are optimal (locally asymptotically maximin or most stringent) at selected ones, and (c) are robus…
Many economic and causal parameters depend on nonparametric or high dimensional first steps. We give a general construction of locally robust/orthogonal moment functions for GMM, where moment conditions have zero derivative with respect to first steps. We show that orthogonal moment functions can be constructed by adding to identifying moments the nonparametric influence function for the effect of the first step on identifying moments. Orthogonal moments reduce model selection and regularization bias, as is very important in many applications, especially for machine learning first steps. We gi…
Deviations from the center within a robust neighborhood of a parametric model distribution may naturally be considered an infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. Thus, the semiparametric method may be tried, which is to compute the scores function for the main parameter minus its orthogonal projection on the closed linear tangent space for the nuisance parameter, and then rescale for Fisher consistency. In this paper, we derive such a semiparametric influence curve by nonlinear projection on the tangent balls arising in robust statistics. This semiparametric influence curve is then compared w…
Non-ignorable dropout is common in studies with long follow-up time, and it can bias study results unless handled carefully. A double-sampling design allocates additional resources to pursue a subsample of the dropouts and find out their outcomes, which can address potential biases due to non-ignorable dropout. It is desirable to construct semiparametric estimators for the double-sampling design because of their robustness properties. However, obtaining such semiparametric estimators remains a challenge due to the requirement of the analytic form of the efficient influence function (EIF), the …
Path-specific effects are a broad class of mediated effects from an exposure to an outcome via one or more causal pathways with respect to some subset of intermediate variables. The majority of the literature concerning estimation of mediated effects has focused on parametric models with stringent assumptions regarding unmeasured confounding. We consider semiparametric inference of a path-specific effect when these assumptions are relaxed. In particular, we develop a suite of semiparametric estimators for the effect along a pathway through a mediator, but not some exposure-induced confounder o…
Inference over tails is performed by applying only the results of extreme value theory. Whilst such theory is well defined and flexible enough in the univariate case, multivariate inferential methods often require the imposition of arbitrary constraints not fully justifed by the underlying theory. In contrast, our approach uses only the constraints imposed by theory. We build on previous, theoretically justified work for marginal exceedances over a high, unknown threshold, by combining it with flexible, semiparametric copulae specifications to investigate extreme dependence. Whilst giving prob…
A Semiparametric Functional Generalized Linear Model for Multi-Population Data
Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学 Sauder 商学院）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University（西蒙菲莎大学统计与精算科学系）
A theorem of McCann shows that for any two absolutely continuous probability measures on R^d there exists a monotone transformation sending one probability measure to the other. A consequence of this theorem, relevant to statistics, is that density estimation can be recast in terms of transformations. In particular, one can fix any absolutely continuous probability measure, call it P, and then reparameterize the whole class of absolutely continuous probability measures as monotone transformations from P. In this paper we utilize this reparameterization of densities, as monotone transformations…
We propose a class of locally and asymptotically optimal tests, based on multivariate ranks and signs for the homogeneity of scatter matrices in $m$ elliptical populations. Contrary to the existing parametric procedures, these tests remain valid without any moment assumptions, and thus are perfectly robust against heavy-tailed distributions (validity robustness). Nevertheless, they reach semiparametric efficiency bounds at correctly specified elliptical densities and maintain high powers under all (efficiency robustness). In particular, their normal-score version outperforms traditional Gaussi…
We examine the performance of efficient and AIPW estimators under two-phase sampling when the complete-data model is nearly correctly specified, in the sense that the misspecification is not reliably detectable from the data by any possible diagnostic or test. Asymptotic results for these nearly true models are obtained by representing them as sequences of misspecified models that are mutually contiguous with a correctly specified model. We find that for the least-favourable direction of model misspecification the bias in the efficient estimator induced can be comparable to the extra variabili…
While estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have also become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon evaluating the total effect of the exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct or indirect pathways of the effect of the exposure, through a mediator variable or not, that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Although powerful…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Center for Monetary and Financial Studies（货币与金融研究中心）
We propose a semiparametric test to evaluate (i) whether different instruments induce subpopulations of compliers with the same observable characteristics on average, and (ii) whether compliers have observable characteristics that are the same as the full population on average. The test is a flexible robustness check for the external validity of instruments. We use it to reinterpret the difference in LATE estimates that Angrist and Evans (1998) obtain when using different instrumental variables. To justify the test, we characterize the doubly robust moment for Abadie (2003)'s class of complier…
Parameter estimation in empirical fields is usually undertaken using parametric models, and such models readily facilitate statistical inference. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to be sufficiently flexible to be able to adequately model real-world phenomena, and may yield biased estimates. Conversely, non-parametric approaches are flexible but do not readily facilitate statistical inference and may still exhibit residual bias. We explore the potential for Influence Functions (IFs) to (a) improve initial estimators without needing more data (b) increase model robustness and (c) facilitate stat…
In a missing-data setting, we have a sample in which a vector of explanatory variables x_i is observed for every subject i, while scalar outcomes y_i are missing by happenstance on some individuals. In this work we propose robust estimates of the distribution of the responses assuming missing at random (MAR) data, under a semiparametric regression model. Our approach allows the consistent estimation of any weakly continuous functional of the response's distribution. In particular, strongly consistent estimates of any continuous location functional, such as the median or MM functionals, are pro…
The increment ratio (IR) statistic was first defined and studied in Surgailis {\it et al.} (2007) for estimating the memory parameter either of a stationary or an increment stationary Gaussian process. Here three extensions are proposed in the case of stationary processes. Firstly, a multidimensional central limit theorem is established for a vector composed by several IR statistics. Secondly, a goodness-of-fit $χ^2$-type test can be deduced from this theorem. Finally, this theorem allows to construct adaptive versions of the estimator and test which are studied in a general semiparametric fra…
A definition of qualitative robustness for point estimators in general statistical models is proposed. Some criteria for robustness are established and applied to estimators in parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric models. In specific nonparametric models, the proposed definition boils down to Hampel robustness. It is also explained how plug-in estimators in certain nonparametric models can be reasonably classified w.r.t. their degrees of robustness.
This paper considers inference in a linear regression model with random right censoring and outliers. The number of outliers can grow with the sample size while their proportion goes to zero. The model is semiparametric and we make only very mild assumptions on the distribution of the error term, contrary to most other existing approaches in the literature. We propose to penalize the estimator proposed by Stute for censored linear regression by the l1-norm. We derive rates of convergence and establish asymptotic normality of the estimator of the regression coefficients. Our estimator has the s…
We study the problem of estimating a functional or a parameter in the context where outcome is subject to nonignorable missingness. We completely avoid modeling the regression relation, while allowing the propensity to be modeled by a semiparametric logistic relation where the dependence on covariates is unspecified. We discover a surprising phenomenon in that the estimation of the parameter in the propensity model as well as the functional estimation can be carried out without assessing the missingness dependence on covariates. This allows us to propose a general class of estimators for both …
The semiparametric regression models have attracted increasing attention owing to their robustness compared to their parametric counterparts. This paper discusses the efficiency bound for functional response models (FRM), an emerging class of semiparametric regression that serves as a timely solution for research questions involving pairwise observations. This new paradigm is especially appealing to reduce astronomical data dimensions for those arising from wearable devices and high-throughput technology, such as microbiome Beta-diversity, viral genetic linkage, single-cell RNA sequencing, etc…
This paper considers an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations, when data are missing at random. The efficiency of existing estimators depends critically on correctly specifying the conditional expectation of the estimating function given the observed components of the random observations. When the conditional expectation is not correctly specified, the efficiency of estimation can be severely compromised even if the propensity function (of missingness) is correctly specified. We propose an efficient estimator which enjoys the double-robustness pr…
In the framework of censored data modeling, the classical linear regression model that assumes normally distributed random errors has received increasing attention in recent years, mainly for mathematical and computational convenience. However, practical studies have often criticized this linear regression model due to its sensitivity to departure from the normality and from the partial nonlinearity. This paper proposes to solve these potential issues simultaneously in the context of the partial linear regression model by assuming that the random errors follow a scale-mixture of normal (SMN) f…
Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is a general method for estimating parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. Each iteration of TMLE involves fitting a parametric submodel that targets the parameter of interest. We investigate the use of exponential families to define the parametric submodel. This implementation of TMLE gives a general approach for estimating any smooth parameter in the nonparametric model. A computational advantage of this approach is that each iteration of TMLE involves estimation of a parameter in an exponential family, which is a convex optimizati…
This paper is concerned with a semiparametric partially linear regression model with unknown regression coefficients, an unknown nonparametric function for the non-linear component, and unobservable Gaussian distributed random errors. We present a wavelet thresholding based estimation procedure to estimate the components of the partial linear model by establishing a connection between an $l_1$-penalty based wavelet estimator of the nonparametric component and Huber's M-estimation of a standard linear model with outliers. Some general results on the large sample properties of the estimates of b…
It is of soaring demand to develop statistical analysis tools that are robust against contamination as well as preserving individual data owners' privacy. In spite of the fact that both topics host a rich body of literature, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to systematically study the connections between the optimality under Huber's contamination model and the local differential privacy (LDP) constraints. In this paper, we start with a general minimax lower bound result, which disentangles the costs of being robust against Huber's contamination and preserving LDP. We further stud…
Recently, several data analytic techniques based on connection graph laplacian (CGL) ideas have appeared in the literature. At this point, the properties of these methods are starting to be understood in the setting where the data is observed without noise. We study the impact of additive noise on these methods, and show that they are remarkably robust. As a by-product of our analysis, we propose modifications of the standard algorithms that increase their robustness to noise. We illustrate our results in numerical simulations.
