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arXiv 1306.4975q-fin.STq-fin.GN
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波动率的随机反馈模型

A Stochastic Feedback Model for Volatility

Raoul Golan, Austin Gerig

摘要:

金融时间序列表现出许多有趣的特性,这些特性很难用简单的模型来解释。这些属性包括价格波动(或回报)分布中的厚尾(fat-tail),这些厚尾在较长的时间尺度上会慢慢消失,绝对回报具有强自相关性,但回报本身具有零自相关性,以及多重分形标度。虽然这些特征的根本原因尚不清楚,但越来越多的证据表明它们起源于波动性行为,即,价格波动幅度的行为。在本文中,我们提出了一个反馈机制的波动,密切再现的非平凡性质的经验价格。该模型是简约的,只包含两个参数,很容易估计,更好地拟合经验数据比标准模型,并可以接地在一个简单的框架,波动率波动驱动的估计误差的外生泊松率。

英文摘要:

Financial time series exhibit a number of interesting properties that are difficult to explain with simple models. These properties include fat-tails in the distribution of price fluctuations (or returns) that are slowly removed at longer timescales, strong autocorrelations in absolute returns but zero autocorrelation in returns themselves, and multifractal scaling. Although the underlying cause of these features is unknown, there is growing evidence they originate in the behavior of volatility, i.e., in the behavior of the magnitude of price fluctuations. In this paper, we posit a feedback mechanism for volatility that closely reproduces the non-trivial properties of empirical prices. The model is parsimonious, contains only two parameters that are easily estimated, fits empirical data better than standard models, and can be grounded in a straightforward framework where volatility fluctuations are driven by the estimation error of an exogenous Poisson rate.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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