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arXiv 1306.0559astro-ph.HEastro-ph.GAhep-ph
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观测下一颗银河系超新星

Observing the Next Galactic Supernova

Scott M. Adams, C. S. Kochanek, John F. Beacom, Mark R. Vagins, K. Z. Stanek

摘要:

我们模拟了一个成功的银河系核心坍缩超新星(ccSN)的距离,消光和星等概率分布,它的激波爆发辐射,以及它的大质量恒星祖先。我们发现,在非常高的概率(~100%),下一个银河系SN将很容易在近红外探测和近红外测光的祖星很可能(~92%)已经存在于2 MASS调查。大多数ccSNe(~98%)将在光学中容易观察到,但由于调查灵敏度和混淆的组合,很大一部分(~43%)将缺乏对祖细胞的观察。如果中微子探测实验可以快速传播一个可能的位置(~3度),我们表明,一个价格适中的红外相机系统可能可以检测到冲击爆发辐射脉冲,即使在白天(~64%的最便宜的设计)。中微子实验应该认真考虑增加这样的系统,这既是为了它们的科学回报,也是为了防止错误触发的附加和内部保护层。我们发现,从失败的红超巨星ccSNe的冲击爆发可能比那些成功的SNe更容易观察到。我们审查的过程中,中微子从银河系ccSN将被检测和宣布。我们提供了新的信息EGADS系统及其提供即时中微子警报的潜力。我们还讨论了下一个银河系Ia型SN的距离,灭绝和星等概率分布。基于我们的模型可观测性,我们发现银河系的ccSN率为每世纪3.2(+7.3/-2.6),银河系的Ia型SN率为每世纪1.4(+1.4/-0.8),银河系的总SN率为每世纪4.6(+7.4/-2.7),需要解释过去一千年观察到的SNe。

英文摘要:

We model the distance, extinction, and magnitude probability distributions of a successful Galactic core-collapse supernova (ccSN), its shock breakout radiation, and its massive star progenitor. We find, at very high probability (~100%), that the next Galactic SN will easily be detectable in the near-IR and that near-IR photometry of the progenitor star very likely (~92%) already exists in the 2MASS survey. Most ccSNe (~98%) will be easily observed in the optical, but a significant fraction (~43%) will lack observations of the progenitor due to a combination of survey sensitivity and confusion. If neutrino detection experiments can quickly disseminate a likely position (~3 deg), we show that a modestly priced IR camera system can probably detect the shock breakout radiation pulse even in daytime (~64% for the cheapest design). Neutrino experiments should seriously consider adding such systems, both for their scientific return and as an added and internal layer of protection against false triggers. We find that shock breakouts from failed ccSNe of red supergiants may be more observable than those of successful SNe. We review the process by which neutrinos from a Galactic ccSN would be detected and announced. We provide new information on the EGADS system and its potential for providing instant neutrino alerts. We also discuss the distance, extinction, and magnitude probability distributions for the next Galactic Type Ia SN. Based on our modeled observability, we find a Galactic ccSN rate of 3.2 (+7.3/-2.6) per century and a Galactic Type Ia SN rate of 1.4 (+1.4/-0.8) per century for a total Galactic SN rate of 4.6 (+7.4/-2.7) per century is needed to account for the SNe observed over the last millennium.

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