泡沫是理性的
Bubbles are rational
摘要:
正如我们使用无限序贯博弈理论中的均衡概念所展示的那样,泡沫和升级对于相信无限世界的经济和环境代理人来说是合理的。这违背了一个自我调节、明智和和平的经济平衡的愿景。换句话说,在这种情况下,均衡不是稳定的同义词。我们试图从这一陈述中得出方法论的结论和一种新的经济学方法。对于经济主体的心智(认知心理学的一个概念),我们建议在无限博弈中加入共归纳来进行适当的推理。这样,我们就完善了理性的概念。
英文摘要:
As we show using the notion of equilibrium in the theory of infinite sequential games, bubbles and escalations are rational for economic and environmental agents, who believe in an infinite world. This goes against a vision of a self regulating, wise and pacific economy in equilibrium. In other words, in this context, equilibrium is not a synonymous of stability. We attempt to draw from this statement methodological consequences and a new approach to economics. To the mindware of economic agents (a concept due to cognitive psychology) we propose to add coinduction to properly reason on infinite games. This way we refine the notion of rationality.
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