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arXiv 1304.2863astro-ph.COastro-ph.IMstat.AP
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来自SDSS条带82的6304类星体光变曲线的随机和确定性模型的评估

Assessment of stochastic and deterministic models of 6304 quasar lightcurves from SDSS Stripe 82

Rene Andrae, Dae-Won Kim, Coryn A. L. Bailer-Jones

摘要:

许多类星体的光学光变曲线在月到年的时间尺度上显示出十分之一或更多的变化。这种变化往往不能很好地描述一个简单的确定性模型。我们在SDSS Stripe 82中对6304个类星体光变曲线进行了20多个确定性和随机性模型的贝叶斯比较。我们考虑了阻尼随机游动(或称Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程),这是近年来研究的一种特殊类型的随机模型,进一步考虑了单正弦和双正弦、多个随机过程、高阶连续自回归过程和复合模型。我们发现,只有29个6304类星体光变曲线的描述显着更好的确定性模型比随机的。绝大多数病例(6023例)的诊断过程已得到充分描述。事实上,对于3462个光变曲线,双曲过程是最好的单一模型,而对于1706个光变曲线,复合双曲过程/正弦曲线模型是最好的。后一种模型是更亮/更蓝的类星体的主导模型。此外,不可忽略的一部分类星体光变曲线表明,不仅平均值是随机的,而且方差也是随机的。我们的研究结果证实了早期的工作,类星体光变曲线可以用一个随机模型来描述,但把这个更坚实的基础上,并进一步表明,在其他几个随机和确定性的模型,最好的是在一个更坚实的基础上,和其他几个随机和确定性的模型。当然,很可能存在更好的(确定性或随机性)模型,这里没有考虑。

英文摘要:

The optical light curves of many quasars show variations of tenths of a magnitude or more on time scales of months to years. This variation often cannot be described well by a simple deterministic model. We perform a Bayesian comparison of over 20 deterministic and stochastic models on 6304 QSO light curves in SDSS Stripe 82. We include the damped random walk (or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck [OU] process), a particular type of stochastic model which recent studies have focused on. Further models we consider are single and double sinusoids, multiple OU processes, higher order continuous autoregressive processes, and composite models. We find that only 29 out of 6304 QSO lightcurves are described significantly better by a deterministic model than a stochastic one. The OU process is an adequate description of the vast majority of cases (6023). Indeed, the OU process is the best single model for 3462 light curves, with the composite OU process/sinusoid model being the best in 1706 cases. The latter model is the dominant one for brighter/bluer QSOs. Furthermore, a non-negligible fraction of QSO lightcurves show evidence that not only the mean is stochastic but the variance is stochastic, too. Our results confirm earlier work that QSO light curves can be described with a stochastic model, but place this on a firmer footing, and further show that the OU process is preferred over several other stochastic and deterministic models. Of course, there may well exist yet better (deterministic or stochastic) models which have not been considered here.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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