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arXiv 1302.2131cs.SIcs.CLcs.IRphysics.soc-ph
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Twitter微博中“世界末日”概念的数据采掘

Data Mining of the Concept "End of the World" in Twitter Microblogs

Ivan Franko Lviv National University(伊万·弗兰科利沃夫国立大学)

Bohdan Pavlyshenko

摘要:

本文描述了Twitter微博帖子的频繁集和关联规则的数量特征分析,与“世界末日”的讨论有关,据称这是由于玛雅日历预测在2012年12月21日。发现的频繁集和关联规则刻画了被分析对象概念间的语义关系,某些频繁集的支持度在期望事件发生前具有一定的延迟达到全局最大值。这种频繁集可以被认为是预测标记,其表征了博客圈用户预期事件的重要性。结果表明,一些揭示的关联规则的置信度的时间动态也可以具有预测特性。超过一定的阈值,就可能是一个事件在最大可能到来和可能到来之间的时间间隔内,社会上相应反应的信号。

英文摘要:

This paper describes the analysis of quantitative characteristics of frequent sets and association rules in the posts of Twitter microblogs, related to the discussion of "end of the world", which was allegedly predicted on December 21, 2012 due to the Mayan calendar. Discovered frequent sets and association rules characterize semantic relations between the concepts of analyzed subjects.The support for some fequent sets reaches the global maximum before the expected event with some time delay. Such frequent sets may be considered as predictive markers that characterize the significance of expected events for blogosphere users. It was shown that time dynamics of confidence of some revealed association rules can also have predictive characteristics. Exceeding a certain threshold, it may be a signal for the corresponding reaction in the society during the time interval between the maximum and probable coming of an event.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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