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arXiv 1301.2158cs.AIstat.ML
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模拟临床决策的人工智能框架:一种马尔可夫决策过程方法

Artificial Intelligence Framework for Simulating Clinical Decision-Making: A Markov Decision Process Approach

Centerstone Research Institute(森特斯顿研究所);Indiana University(印第安纳大学)

Casey C. Bennett, Kris Hauser

摘要:

在现代医疗保健系统中,快速增长的成本/复杂性,越来越多的治疗方案,以及爆炸式的信息流,往往不能有效地到达前线,阻碍了随着时间的推移选择最佳治疗决策的能力。本文的目标是开发一个通用(非疾病特异性)计算/人工智能(AI)框架来应对这些挑战。这提供了两个潜在的功能:1)用于探索各种医疗保健政策、支付方法等的模拟环境,2)临床人工智能的基础--一种可以像医生一样思考的人工智能。这种方法结合了马尔可夫决策过程和动态决策网络,从临床数据中学习,并通过模拟替代顺序决策路径来制定复杂的计划,同时捕捉医疗系统中各种组件之间有时相互冲突,有时相互协同的相互作用。它可以在部分可观察的环境中(在缺少观察或数据的情况下)通过维护关于患者健康状况的信念状态来操作,并作为计划和重新计划的在线代理。使用来自电子健康记录的真实患者数据对该框架进行了评估。这样的AI框架很容易超越当前的常规治疗(TAU)病例率/医疗保健服务收费模型(单位变化成本:$189 vs. $ 497),同时获得30-35%的患者结局增加。调整某些模型参数进一步增强了这一优势,以大约一半的成本获得大约50%的改进。在精心设计和问题制定的情况下,人工智能仿真框架即使在复杂和不确定的环境中也可以近似最优决策。未来的工作进行了描述,概述了潜在的线的研究和集成的机器学习算法的个性化医疗。

英文摘要:

In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This serves two potential functions: 1) a simulation environment for exploring various healthcare policies, payment methodologies, etc., and 2) the basis for clinical artificial intelligence - an AI that can think like a doctor. This approach combines Markov decision processes and dynamic decision networks to learn from clinical data and develop complex plans via simulation of alternative sequential decision paths while capturing the sometimes conflicting, sometimes synergistic interactions of various components in the healthcare system. It can operate in partially observable environments (in the case of missing observations or data) by maintaining belief states about patient health status and functions as an online agent that plans and re-plans. This framework was evaluated using real patient data from an electronic health record. Such an AI framework easily outperforms the current treatment-as-usual (TAU) case-rate/fee-for-service models of healthcare (Cost per Unit Change: $189 vs. $497) while obtaining a 30-35% increase in patient outcomes. Tweaking certain model parameters further enhances this advantage, obtaining roughly 50% more improvement for roughly half the costs. Given careful design and problem formulation, an AI simulation framework can approximate optimal decisions even in complex and uncertain environments. Future work is described that outlines potential lines of research and integration of machine learning algorithms for personalized medicine.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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