Data association, the problem of reasoning over correspondence between targets and measurements, is a fundamental problem in tracking. This paper presents a graphical model formulation of data association and applies an approximate inference method, belief propagation (BP), to obtain estimates of marginal association probabilities. We prove that BP is guaranteed to converge, and bound the number of iterations necessary. Experiments reveal a favourable comparison to prior methods in terms of accuracy and computational complexity.
Institute of Computer Science（计算机科学研究所）；Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院）
Mathematical Theory of Evidence (MTE), a foundation for reasoning under partial ignorance, is blamed to leave frequencies outside (or aside of) its framework. The seriousness of this accusation is obvious: no experiment may be run to compare the performance of MTE-based models of real world processes against real world data. In this paper we consider this problem from the point of view of conditioning in the MTE. We describe the class of belief functions for which marginal consistency with observed frequencies may be achieved and conditional belief functions are proper belief functions,%\ and …
Autonomous agents operating in perceptually aliased environments should ideally be able to solve the data association problem. Yet, planning for future actions while considering this problem is not trivial. State of the art approaches therefore use multi-modal hypotheses to represent the states of the agent and of the environment. However, explicitly considering all possible data associations, the number of hypotheses grows exponentially with the planning horizon. As such, the corresponding Belief Space Planning problem quickly becomes unsolvable. Moreover, under hard computational budget cons…
University of Rochester（罗切斯特大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm. We call such marginals `unbelievable.' T…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
Unresolved data association in ambiguous and perceptually aliased environments leads to multi-modal hypotheses on both the robot's and the environment state. To avoid catastrophic results, when operating in such ambiguous environments, it is crucial to reason about data association within Belief Space Planning (BSP). However, explicitly considering all possible data associations, the number of hypotheses grows exponentially with the planning horizon and determining the optimal action sequence quickly becomes intractable. Moreover, with hard budget constraints where some non-negligible hypothes…
In this paper, we describe an abstract framework and axioms under which exact local computation of marginals is possible. The primitive objects of the framework are variables and valuations. The primitive operators of the framework are combination and marginalization. These operate on valuations. We state three axioms for these operators and we derive the possibility of local computation from the axioms. Next, we describe a propagation scheme for computing marginals of a valuation when we have a factorization of the valuation on a hypertree. Finally we show how the problem of computing margina…
HeuDiaSyC-UMR CNRS 6599；Universite de Technologie de Compiegne（贡比涅技术大学）
In current perception systems applied to the rebuilding of the environment for intelligent vehicles, the part reserved to object association for the tracking is increasingly significant. This allows firstly to follow the objects temporal evolution and secondly to increase the reliability of environment perception. We propose in this communication the development of a multi-objects association algorithm with ambiguity removal entering into the design of such a dynamic perception system for intelligent vehicles. This algorithm uses the belief theory and data modelling with fuzzy mathematics in o…
There exist two general forms of exact algorithms for updating probabilities in Bayesian Networks. The first approach involves using a structure, usually a clique tree, and performing local message based calculation to extract the belief in each variable. The second general class of algorithm involves the use of non-serial dynamic programming techniques to extract the belief in some desired group of variables. In this paper we present a hybrid algorithm based on the latter approach yet possessing the ability to retrieve the belief in all single variables. The technique is advantageous in that …
University of Massachusetts（马萨诸塞大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
Belief Propagation has been widely used for marginal inference, however it is slow on problems with large-domain variables and high-order factors. Previous work provides useful approximations to facilitate inference on such models, but lacks important anytime properties such as: 1) providing accurate and consistent marginals when stopped early, 2) improving the approximation when run longer, and 3) converging to the fixed point of BP. To this end, we propose a message passing algorithm that works on sparse (partially instantiated) domains, and converges to consistent marginals using dynamic me…
The paper presents a scheme for computing lower and upper bounds on the posterior marginals in Bayesian networks with discrete variables. Its power lies in its ability to use any available scheme that bounds the probability of evidence or posterior marginals and enhance its performance in an anytime manner. The scheme uses the cutset conditioning principle to tighten existing bounding schemes and to facilitate anytime behavior, utilizing a fixed number of cutset tuples. The accuracy of the bounds improves as the number of used cutset tuples increases and so does the computation time. We demons…
University of Cantabria（坎塔布里亚大学）；Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）
We can perform inference in Bayesian belief networks by enumerating instantiations with high probability thus approximating the marginals. In this paper, we present a method for determining the fraction of instantiations that has to be considered such that the absolute error in the marginals does not exceed a predefined value. The method is based on extreme value theory. Essentially, the proposed method uses the reversed generalized Pareto distribution to model probabilities of instantiations below a given threshold. Based on this distribution, an estimate of the maximal absolute error if inst…
We present a novel inference algorithm for arbitrary, binary, undirected graphs. Unlike loopy belief propagation, which iterates fixed point equations, we directly descend on the Bethe free energy. The algorithm consists of two phases, first we update the pairwise probabilities, given the marginal probabilities at each unit,using an analytic expression. Next, we update the marginal probabilities, given the pairwise probabilities by following the negative gradient of the Bethe free energy. Both steps are guaranteed to decrease the Bethe free energy, and since it is lower bounded, the algorithm …
In this paper, we introduce the increasing belief criterion in association rule mining. The criterion uses a recursive application of Bayes' theorem to compute a rule's belief. Extracted rules are required to have their belief increase with their last observation. We extend the taxonomy of association rule mining algorithms with a new branch for Bayesian rule mining~(BRM), which uses increasing belief as the rule selection criterion. In contrast, the well-established frequent association rule mining~(FRM) branch relies on the minimum-support concept to extract rules. We derive properties of th…
Most algorithms for propagating evidence through belief networks have been exact and exhaustive: they produce an exact (point-valued) marginal probability for every node in the network. Often, however, an application will not need information about every n ode in the network nor will it need exact probabilities. We present the localized partial evaluation (LPE) propagation algorithm, which computes interval bounds on the marginal probability of a specified query node by examining a subset of the nodes in the entire network. Conceptually, LPE ignores parts of the network that are "too far away"…
Belief propagation is an algorithm that is known from statistical physics and computer science. It provides an efficient way of calculating marginals that involve large sums of products which are efficiently rearranged into nested products of sums to approximate the marginals. It allows a reliable estimation of the state and its variance of power grids that is needed for the control and forecast of power grid management. At prototypical examples of IEEE-grids we show that belief propagation not only scales linearly with the grid size for the state estimation itself, but also facilitates and ac…
Recently, researchers have demonstrated that loopy belief propagation - the use of Pearls polytree algorithm IN a Bayesian network WITH loops OF error- correcting codes.The most dramatic instance OF this IS the near Shannon - limit performance OF Turbo Codes codes whose decoding algorithm IS equivalent TO loopy belief propagation IN a chain - structured Bayesian network. IN this paper we ask : IS there something special about the error - correcting code context, OR does loopy propagation WORK AS an approximate inference schemeIN a more general setting? We compare the marginals computed using l…
We propose an original particle-based implementation of the Loopy Belief Propagation (LPB) algorithm for pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRF) on a continuous state space. The algorithm constructs adaptively efficient proposal distributions approximating the local beliefs at each note of the MRF. This is achieved by considering proposal distributions in the exponential family whose parameters are updated iterately in an Expectation Propagation (EP) framework. The proposed particle scheme provides consistent estimation of the LBP marginals as the number of particles increases. We demonstrate that…
We introduce novel belief propagation algorithms to estimate the marginals of a high dimensional probability distribution. They involve natural (co)homological constructions relevant for a localised description of statistical systems.
LBBE, CNRS UMR 5558, Université Lyon 1（里昂第一大学CNRS UMR 5558计算与进化生物学实验室）；Microsoft Research New England（微软新英格兰研究院）；Human Genetics Foundation（人类遗传学基金会）；Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学）；Université of Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；UMR CNRS-INSA 5504（法国国家科学研究中心-图卢兹国立应用科学学院UMR 5504联合研究单位）；INRA 792（法国国家农业研究院792研究单位）
External information propagates in the cell mainly through signaling cascades and transcriptional activation, allowing it to react to a wide spectrum of environmental changes. High throughput experiments identify numerous molecular components of such cascades that may, however, interact through unknown partners. Some of them may be detected using data coming from the integration of a protein-protein interaction network and mRNA expression profiles. This inference problem can be mapped onto the problem of finding appropriate optimal connected subgraphs of a network defined by these datasets. Th…
The Smith-Kettlewell Eye Research Institute（史密斯-凯特尔韦尔眼科研究所）
We present an exact method of greatly speeding up belief propagation (BP) for a wide variety of potential functions in pairwise MRFs and other graphical models. Specifically, our technique applies whenever the pairwise potentials have been {\em truncated} to a constant value for most pairs of states, as is commonly done in MRF models with robust potentials (such as stereo) that impose an upper bound on the penalty assigned to discontinuities; for each of the $M$ possible states in one node, only a smaller number $m$ of compatible states in a neighboring node are assigned milder penalties. The …
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；University of Sao Paulo（圣保罗大学）
Laplace's method, a family of asymptotic methods used to approximate integrals, is presented as a potential candidate for the tool box of techniques used for knowledge acquisition and probabilistic inference in belief networks with continuous variables. This technique approximates posterior moments and marginal posterior distributions with reasonable accuracy [errors are O(n^-2) for posterior means] in many interesting cases. The method also seems promising for computing approximations for Bayes factors for use in the context of model selection, model uncertainty and mixtures of pdfs. The limi…
QANTIS: A Hardware-Validated Quantum Platform for POMDP Planning and Multi-Target Data Association
Neura Parse Ltd.（Neura Parse有限公司）；Department of Computer Engineering, Boğaziçi University（博耶奇大学计算机工程系）；Faculty of Engineering, University of Toronto（多伦多大学工程学院）；Istanbul Technical University（伊斯坦布尔技术大学）
Sichuan University（四川大学）；Artificial Intelligence Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province（四川省人工智能重点实验室）
This paper considers the problem of tracking a large-scale number of group targets. Usually, multi-target in most tracking scenarios are assumed to have independent motion and are well-separated. However, for group target tracking (GTT), the targets within groups are closely spaced and move in a coordinated manner, the groups can split or merge, and the numbers of targets in groups may be large, which lead to more challenging data association, filtering and computation problems. Within the belief propagation (BP) framework, we propose a scalable group target belief propagation (GTBP) method by…
Many datasets give partial information about an ordering or ranking by indicating which team won a game, which item a user prefers, or who infected whom. We define a continuous spin system whose Gibbs distribution is the posterior distribution on permutations, given a probabilistic model of these interactions. Using the cavity method we derive a belief propagation algorithm that computes the marginal distribution of each node's position. In addition, the Bethe free energy lets us approximate the number of linear extensions of a partial order and perform model selection between competing probab…
Air Force Institute of Technology（空军理工学院）；Ben Gurion University of the Negev（内盖夫本-古里安大学）
Independence-based (IB) assignments to Bayesian belief networks were originally proposed as abductive explanations. IB assignments assign fewer variables in abductive explanations than do schemes assigning values to all evidentially supported variables. We use IB assignments to approximate marginal probabilities in Bayesian belief networks. Recent work in belief updating for Bayes networks attempts to approximate posterior probabilities by finding a small number of the highest probability complete (or perhaps evidentially supported) assignments. Under certain assumptions, the probability mass …
We propose a new approximate method for counting the number of the solutions for constraint satisfaction problem (CSP). The method derives from the partition function based on introducing the free energy and capturing the relationship of probabilities of variables and constraints, which requires the marginal probabilities. It firstly obtains the marginal probabilities using the belief propagation, and then computes the number of solutions according to the partition function. This allows us to directly plug the marginal probabilities into the partition function and efficiently count the number …
Institute of Computer Science, Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院计算机科学研究所）
Shenoy and Shafer {Shenoy:90} demonstrated that both for Dempster-Shafer Theory and probability theory there exists a possibility to calculate efficiently marginals of joint belief distributions (by so-called local computations) provided that the joint distribution can be decomposed (factorized) into a belief network. A number of algorithms exists for decomposition of probabilistic joint belief distribution into a bayesian (belief) network from data. For example Spirtes, Glymour and Schein{Spirtes:90b} formulated a Conjecture that a direct dependence test and a head-to-head meeting test would …
Center for Machine Perception, Czech Technical University（捷克技术大学机器感知中心）
It is known that fixed points of loopy belief propagation (BP) correspond to stationary points of the Bethe variational problem, where we minimize the Bethe free energy subject to normalization and marginalization constraints. Unfortunately, this does not entirely explain BP because BP is a dual rather than primal algorithm to solve the Bethe variational problem -- beliefs are infeasible before convergence. Thus, we have no better understanding of BP than as an algorithm to seek for a common zero of a system of non-linear functions, not explicitly related to each other. In this theoretical pap…
In this paper we treat both forms of probabilistic inference, estimating marginal probabilities of the joint distribution and finding the most probable assignment, through a unified message-passing algorithm architecture. We generalize the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithms of sum-product and max-product and tree-rewaighted (TRW) sum and max product algorithms (TRBP) and introduce a new set of convergent algorithms based on "convex-free-energy" and Linear-Programming (LP) relaxation as a zero-temprature of a convex-free-energy. The main idea of this work arises from taking a general perspectiv…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
Inference and decision making under uncertainty are key processes in every autonomous system and numerous robotic problems. In recent years, the similarities between inference and decision making triggered much work, from developing unified computational frameworks to pondering about the duality between the two. In spite of these efforts, inference and control, as well as inference and belief space planning (BSP) are still treated as two separate processes. In this paper we propose a paradigm shift, a novel approach which deviates from conventional Bayesian inference and utilizes the similarit…
We consider belief propagation (BP) as an efficient and scalable tool for state estimation and optimization problems in supply networks such as power grids. BP algorithms make use of factor graph representations, whose assignment to the problem of interest is not unique. It depends on the state variables and their mutual interdependencies. Many short loops in factor graphs may impede the accuracy of BP. We propose a systematic way to cluster loops of naively assigned factor graphs such that the resulting transformed factor graphs have no additional loops as compared to the original network. Th…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
Deciding what's next? is a fundamental problem in robotics and Artificial Intelligence. Under belief space planning (BSP), in a partially observable setting, it involves calculating the expected accumulated belief-dependent reward, where the expectation is with respect to all future measurements. Since solving this general un-approximated problem quickly becomes intractable, state of the art approaches turn to approximations while still calculating planning sessions from scratch. In this work we propose a novel paradigm, Incremental BSP (iX-BSP), based on the key insight that calculations acro…
Due to unmeasured confounding, it is often not possible to identify causal effects from a postulated model. Nevertheless, we can ask for partial identification, which usually boils down to finding upper and lower bounds of a causal quantity of interest derived from all solutions compatible with the encoded structural assumptions. One appealing way to derive such bounds is by casting it in terms of a constrained optimization method that searches over all causal models compatible with evidence, as introduced in the classic work of Balke and Pearl (1994) for discrete data. Although by constructio…
The generalized belief propagation (GBP), introduced by Yedidia et al., is an extension of the belief propagation (BP) algorithm, which is widely used in different problems involved in calculating exact or approximate marginals of probability distributions. In many problems, it has been observed that the accuracy of GBP considerably outperforms that of BP. However, because in general the computational complexity of GBP is higher than BP, its application is limited in practice. In this paper, we introduce a stochastic version of GBP called stochastic generalized belief propagation (SGBP) that c…
