We present metrics for measuring state similarity in Markov decision processes (MDPs) with infinitely many states, including MDPs with continuous state spaces. Such metrics provide a stable quantitative analogue of the notion of bisimulation for MDPs, and are suitable for use in MDP approximation. We show that the optimal value function associated with a discounted infinite horizon planning task varies continuously with respect to our metric distances.
Hong Kong University of Science & Technology（香港科技大学）
Planning problems where effects of actions are non-deterministic can be modeled as Markov decision processes. Planning problems are usually goal-directed. This paper proposes several techniques for exploiting the goal-directedness to accelerate value iteration, a standard algorithm for solving Markov decision processes. Empirical studies have shown that the techniques can bring about significant speedups.
Constructing Non-Markovian Decision Process via History Aggregator
AILab, School of Computer Science, Peking University（AILab，计算机科学学院，北京大学）；National Key Laboratory for Multimedia Information Processing, School of Computer Science, Peking University（多媒体信息处理国家级实验室，计算机科学学院，北京大学）
In the Markov decision process model, policies are usually evaluated by expected cumulative rewards. As this decision criterion is not always suitable, we propose in this paper an algorithm for computing a policy optimal for the quantile criterion. Both finite and infinite horizons are considered. Finally we experimentally evaluate our approach on random MDPs and on a data center control problem.
Euclidean Markov decision processes are a powerful tool for modeling control problems under uncertainty over continuous domains. Finite state imprecise, Markov decision processes can be used to approximate the behavior of these infinite models. In this paper we address two questions: first, we investigate what kind of approximation guarantees are obtained when the Euclidean process is approximated by finite state approximations induced by increasingly fine partitions of the continuous state space. We show that for cost functions over finite time horizons the approximations become arbitrarily p…
Hong Kong University of Science & Technology（香港科技大学）
There is much interest in using partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) as a formal model for planning in stochastic domains. This paper is concerned with finding optimal policies for POMDPs. We propose several improvements to incremental pruning, presently the most efficient exact algorithm for solving POMDPs.
Hong Kong University of Science & Technology（香港科技大学）
We present a technique for speeding up the convergence of value iteration for partially observable Markov decisions processes (POMDPs). The underlying idea is similar to that behind modified policy iteration for fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs). The technique can be easily incorporated into any existing POMDP value iteration algorithms. Experiments have been conducted on several test problems with one POMDP value iteration algorithm called incremental pruning. We find that the technique can make incremental pruning run several orders of magnitude faster.
Methods for learning and planning in sequential decision problems often assume the learner is aware of all possible states and actions in advance. This assumption is sometimes untenable. In this paper, we give a method to learn factored markov decision problems from both domain exploration and expert assistance, which guarantees convergence to near-optimal behaviour, even when the agent begins unaware of factors critical to success. Our experiments show our agent learns optimal behaviour on small and large problems, and that conserving information on discovering new possibilities results in fa…
We extend probabilistic action language pBC+ with the notion of utility as in decision theory. The semantics of the extended pBC+ can be defined as a shorthand notation for a decision-theoretic extension of the probabilistic answer set programming language LPMLN. Alternatively, the semantics of pBC+ can also be defined in terms of Markov Decision Process (MDP), which in turn allows for representing MDP in a succinct and elaboration tolerant way as well as to leverage an MDP solver to compute pBC+. The idea led to the design of the system pbcplus2mdp, which can find an optimal policy of a pBC+ …
We present metrics for measuring the similarity of states in a finite Markov decision process (MDP). The formulation of our metrics is based on the notion of bisimulation for MDPs, with an aim towards solving discounted infinite horizon reinforcement learning tasks. Such metrics can be used to aggregate states, as well as to better structure other value function approximators (e.g., memory-based or nearest-neighbor approximators). We provide bounds that relate our metric distances to the optimal values of states in the given MDP.
Most exact algorithms for general partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) use a form of dynamic programming in which a piecewise-linear and convex representation of one value function is transformed into another. We examine variations of the "incremental pruning" method for solving this problem and compare them to earlier algorithms from theoretical and empirical perspectives. We find that incremental pruning is presently the most efficient exact method for solving POMDPs.
We show that for several variations of partially observable Markov decision processes, polynomial-time algorithms for finding control policies are unlikely to or simply don't have guarantees of finding policies within a constant factor or a constant summand of optimal. Here "unlikely" means "unless some complexity classes collapse," where the collapses considered are P=NP, P=PSPACE, or P=EXP. Until or unless these collapses are shown to hold, any control-policy designer must choose between such performance guarantees and efficient computation.
Markov decision problems (MDPs) provide the foundations for a number of problems of interest to AI researchers studying automated planning and reinforcement learning. In this paper, we summarize results regarding the complexity of solving MDPs and the running time of MDP solution algorithms. We argue that, although MDPs can be solved efficiently in theory, more study is needed to reveal practical algorithms for solving large problems quickly. To encourage future research, we sketch some alternative methods of analysis that rely on the structure of MDPs.
In this study I proposed a filtering beliefs method for improving performance of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes(POMDPs), which is a method wildly used in autonomous robot and many other domains concerning control policy. My method search and compare every similar belief pair. Because a similar belief have insignificant influence on control policy, the belief is filtered out for reducing training time. The empirical results show that the proposed method outperforms the point-based approximate POMDPs in terms of the quality of training results as well as the efficiency of the met…
This paper presents two new approaches to decomposing and solving large Markov decision problems (MDPs), a partial decoupling method and a complete decoupling method. In these approaches, a large, stochastic decision problem is divided into smaller pieces. The first approach builds a cache of policies for each part of the problem independently, and then combines the pieces in a separate, light-weight step. A second approach also divides the problem into smaller pieces, but information is communicated between the different problem pieces, allowing intelligent decisions to be made about which pi…
Institut d’Investigació en Intelligència Artificial（人工智能研究所）；Universidade Metodista de São Paulo（圣保罗卫理公会大学）；Centro Universitário FEI（FEI大学中心）
Non-stationary domains, where unforeseen changes happen, present a challenge for agents to find an optimal policy for a sequential decision making problem. This work investigates a solution to this problem that combines Markov Decision Processes (MDP) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) with Answer Set Programming (ASP) in a method we call ASP(RL). In this method, Answer Set Programming is used to find the possible trajectories of an MDP, from where Reinforcement Learning is applied to learn the optimal policy of the problem. Results show that ASP(RL) is capable of efficiently finding the optimal …
Our work aims at developing reinforcement learning algorithms that do not rely on the Markov assumption. We consider the class of Non-Markov Decision Processes where histories can be abstracted into a finite set of states while preserving the dynamics. We call it a Markov abstraction since it induces a Markov Decision Process over a set of states that encode the non-Markov dynamics. This phenomenon underlies the recently introduced Regular Decision Processes (as well as POMDPs where only a finite number of belief states is reachable). In all such kinds of decision process, an agent that uses a…
Sharif University of Technology（谢里夫理工大学）；University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学）
Partially observable Markov decision processes have been widely used to provide models for real-world decision making problems. In this paper, we will provide a method in which a slightly different version of them called Mixed observability Markov decision process, MOMDP, is going to join with our problem. Basically, we aim at offering a behavioural model for interaction of intelligent agents with musical pitch environment and we will show that how MOMDP can shed some light on building up a decision making model for musical pitch conveniently.
Technion（以色列理工学院）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove that the complexity of computing a policy that maximizes the mean reward under a variance constraint is NP-hard for some cases, and strongly NP-hard for others. We finally offer pseudopolynomial exact and approximation algorithms.
In this short note we derive a relationship between the Bregman divergence from the current policy to the optimal policy and the suboptimality of the current value function in a regularized Markov decision process. This result has implications for multi-task reinforcement learning, offline reinforcement learning, and regret analysis under function approximation, among others.
Reinforcement learning has solid foundations, but becomes inefficient in partially observed (non-Markovian) environments. Thus, a learning agent -born with a representation and a policy- might wish to investigate to what extent the Markov property holds. We propose a learning architecture that utilizes combinatorial policy optimization to overcome non-Markovity and to develop efficient behaviors, which are easy to inherit, tests the Markov property of the behavioral states, and corrects against non-Markovity by running a deterministic factored Finite State Model, which can be learned. We illus…
Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
Control applications often feature tasks with similar, but not identical, dynamics. We introduce the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework that parametrizes a family of related dynamical systems with a low-dimensional set of latent factors, and introduce a semiparametric regression approach for learning its structure from data. In the control setting, we show that a learned HiP-MDP rapidly identifies the dynamics of a new task instance, allowing an agent to flexibly adapt to task variations.
We formally verify executable algorithms for solving Markov decision processes (MDPs) in the interactive theorem prover Isabelle/HOL. We build on existing formalizations of probability theory to analyze the expected total reward criterion on infinite-horizon problems. Our developments formalize the Bellman equation and give conditions under which optimal policies exist. Based on this analysis, we verify dynamic programming algorithms to solve tabular MDPs. We evaluate the formally verified implementations experimentally on standard problems and show they are practical. Furthermore, we show tha…
Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences（马克斯·普朗克数学研究所）；Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science（数学与计算机科学学院）；Leipzig University（莱比锡大学）；Santa Fe Institute（圣塔菲研究所）
It is well known that for any finite state Markov decision process (MDP) there is a memoryless deterministic policy that maximizes the expected reward. For partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), optimal memoryless policies are generally stochastic. We study the expected reward optimization problem over the set of memoryless stochastic policies. We formulate this as a constrained linear optimization problem and develop a corresponding geometric framework. We show that any POMDP has an optimal memoryless policy of limited stochasticity, which allows us to reduce the dimensional…
Indiana University（印第安纳大学）；University of Southern California（南加利福尼亚大学）
We consider a decision-making problem where the environment varies both in space and time. Such problems arise naturally when considering e.g., the navigation of an underwater robot amidst ocean currents or the navigation of an aerial vehicle in wind. To model such spatiotemporal variation, we extend the standard Markov Decision Process (MDP) to a new framework called the Time-Varying Markov Decision Process (TVMDP). The TVMDP has a time-varying state transition model and transforms the standard MDP that considers only immediate and static uncertainty descriptions of state transitions, to a fr…
We develop a method for computing policies in Markov decision processes with risk-sensitive measures subject to temporal logic constraints. Specifically, we use a particular risk-sensitive measure from cumulative prospect theory, which has been previously adopted in psychology and economics. The nonlinear transformation of the probabilities and utility functions yields a nonlinear programming problem, which makes computation of optimal policies typically challenging. We show that this nonlinear weighting function can be accurately approximated by the difference of two convex functions. This ob…
Remembering to Be Fair: Non-Markovian Fairness in Sequential Decision Making
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Vector Institute（向量研究所）；Schwartz Reisman Institute for Technology and Society（施瓦茨·赖斯曼技术与社会研究所）；University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）
Stochastic domains often involve risk-averse decision makers. While recent work has focused on how to model risk in Markov decision processes using risk measures, it has not addressed the problem of solving large risk-averse formulations. In this paper, we propose and analyze a new method for solving large risk-averse MDPs with hybrid continuous-discrete state spaces and continuous action spaces. The proposed method iteratively improves a bound on the value function using a linearity structure of the MDP. We demonstrate the utility and properties of the method on a portfolio optimization probl…
We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A straightforward modification to discounted expected utility leads to inconsistent decision making over time. We will show that an iterated risk measure can represent the preference that cannot be represented by any discounted expected utility and that the decisions based on the i…
Decision makers, such as doctors and judges, make crucial decisions such as recommending treatments to patients, and granting bails to defendants on a daily basis. Such decisions typically involve weighting the potential benefits of taking an action against the costs involved. In this work, we aim to automate this task of learning \emph{cost-effective, interpretable and actionable treatment regimes}. We formulate this as a problem of learning a decision list -- a sequence of if-then-else rules -- which maps characteristics of subjects (eg., diagnostic test results of patients) to treatments. W…
Tel Aviv University（特拉维夫大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
We consider online learning in episodic loop-free Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the loss function can change arbitrarily between episodes, and the transition function is not known to the learner. We show $\tilde{O}(L|X|\sqrt{|A|T})$ regret bound, where $T$ is the number of episodes, $X$ is the state space, $A$ is the action space, and $L$ is the length of each episode. Our online algorithm is implemented using entropic regularization methodology, which allows to extend the original adversarial MDP model to handle convex performance criteria (different ways to aggregate the losses of …
In this paper, we are interested in optimal decisions in a partially observable Markov universe. Our viewpoint departs from the dynamic programming viewpoint: we are directly approximating an optimal strategic tree depending on the observation. This approximation is made by means of a parameterized probabilistic law. In this paper, a particular family of hidden Markov models, with input and output, is considered as a learning framework. A method for optimizing the parameters of these HMMs is proposed and applied. This optimization method is based on the cross-entropic principle.
The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical laws. In this paper, an Evidential Markov (EM) decision making model based on Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory and Markov modelling is proposed to address this issue and model the real human decision-making process. In an evidential framework, the states are extended by introducing an uncertain state which represents the hesitance of a decision maker. The classical Markov model can not produce the disjunction effect, wh…
