ENSO动力学:低维混沌还是随机?
ENSO dynamics: low-dimensional-chaotic or stochastic?
摘要:
我们应用测试低维,确定性动力学的厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)的厄尔尼诺3时间序列。该测试是否定的,表明动力学是高维/随机的。然而,随机强迫的赤道波动动力学的时间延迟方程的应用可以重现这种随机动力学和ENSO的其他重要方面。在没有这种随机强迫的情况下,该模式产生低维的确定性动力学,因此这些结果强调了ENSO低维模式中海气相互作用的随机性质的重要性。
英文摘要:
We apply a test for low-dimensional, deterministic dynamics to the Nino 3 time series for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The test is negative, indicating that the dynamics is high-dimensional/stochastic. However, application of stochastic forcing to a time-delay equation for equatorial-wave dynamics can reproduce this stochastic dynamics and other important aspects of ENSO. Without such stochastic forcing this model yields low-dimensional, deterministic dynamics, hence these results emphasize the importance of the stochastic nature of the atmosphere-ocean interaction in low-dimensional models of ENSO.
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