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arXiv 1206.3933cs.SIphysics.soc-ph
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基于美国专利引文网络分析的新兴技术预测

Prediction of Emerging Technologies Based on Analysis of the U.S. Patent Citation Network

Péter Érdi, Kinga Makovi, Zoltán Somogyvári, Katherine Strandburg, Jan Tobochnik, Péter Volf, László Zalányi

摘要:

由引用连接的专利网络是一个不断发展的图,它提供了创新过程的表示。一项专利引用另一项专利意味着被引用的专利反映了被引用专利所建立的一项先前存在的知识。这里提出的方法(i)确定专利的实际集群:即技术分支,(ii)预测集群结构的时间变化。被称为引用向量的预测器被定义用于表征技术发展,以显示被其他专利引用的专利如何属于各个工业领域。所采用的聚类技术能够发现新出现的重组,并预测新出现的新技术集群。我们的新方法的预测能力,说明了美国专利商标局子类别11,农业,食品,纺织品的例子。一个集群的专利被确定的基础上的引用数据到1991年,这表明在1997年初形成的类442的显着重叠。这些新的预测分析工具可以支持科学和技术领域的政策决策过程,并帮助制定行动建议。

英文摘要:

The network of patents connected by citations is an evolving graph, which provides a representation of the innovation process. A patent citing another implies that the cited patent reflects a piece of previously existing knowledge that the citing patent builds upon. A methodology presented here (i) identifies actual clusters of patents: i.e. technological branches, and (ii) gives predictions about the temporal changes of the structure of the clusters. A predictor, called the {citation vector}, is defined for characterizing technological development to show how a patent cited by other patents belongs to various industrial fields. The clustering technique adopted is able to detect the new emerging recombinations, and predicts emerging new technology clusters. The predictive ability of our new method is illustrated on the example of USPTO subcategory 11, Agriculture, Food, Textiles. A cluster of patents is determined based on citation data up to 1991, which shows significant overlap of the class 442 formed at the beginning of 1997. These new tools of predictive analytics could support policy decision making processes in science and technology, and help formulate recommendations for action.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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