短期剥削性竞争条件下的觅食:股票交易者的案例
Foraging under conditions of short-term exploitative competition: The case of stock traders
摘要:
理论声称,动物觅食的选择是为了最大化回报而进化的,比如净能量摄入。对人类和非人类动物的实证研究表明,个体在做出自己的觅食选择时,往往会关注竞争对手的觅食选择。然而,由于收集野外数据或构建实验的复杂性,理论上最优和经验上实现的觅食选择的广泛事实现在才出现。在这里,我们分析了一群专业日内交易者的觅食选择,他们必须在连续多次交易同一只股票--补丁开发--或切换到不同的股票--补丁探索--之间做出选择。我们衡量交易者的资源摄入量和竞争对手的预期摄入量之间的差异在很短的时间内-我们称之为短期比较回报的差异。我们发现,交易者的选择可以解释为觅食策略,最大限度地提高他们的每日短期比较回报。然而,我们发现不同的交易选择和净收入摄入量之间没有一个最好的关系。这表明,交易者的选择可能是短期的胜利导向,矛盾的是,可能不适应绝对的市场回报。
英文摘要:
Theory purports that animal foraging choices evolve to maximize returns, such as net energy intake. Empirical research in both human and nonhuman animals reveals that individuals often attend to the foraging choices of their competitors while making their own foraging choices. Due to the complications of gathering field data or constructing experiments, however, broad facts relating theoretically optimal and empirically realized foraging choices are only now emerging. Here, we analyze foraging choices of a cohort of professional day traders who must choose between trading the same stock multiple times in a row---patch exploitation---or switching to a different stock---patch exploration---with potentially higher returns. We measure the difference between a trader's resource intake and the competitors' expected intake within a short period of time---a difference we call short-term comparative returns. We find that traders' choices can be explained by foraging heuristics that maximize their daily short-term comparative returns. However, we find no one-best relationship between different trading choices and net income intake. This suggests that traders' choices can be short-term win oriented and, paradoxically, maybe maladaptive for absolute market returns.
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