Robustness of routing policies for networks is a central problem which is gaining increased attention with a growing awareness to safeguard critical infrastructure networks against natural and man-induced disruptions. Routing under limited information and the possibility of cascades through the network adds serious challenges to this problem. This abstract considers the framework of dynamical networks introduced in our earlier work [1,2], where the network is modeled by a system of ordinary differential equations derived from mass conservation laws on directed acyclic graphs with a single origin-destination pair and a constant inflow at the origin. The rate of change of the particle density on each link of the network equals the difference between the inflow and the outflow on that link. The latter is modeled to depend on the current particle density on that link through a flow function. The novel modeling element in this paper is that every link is assumed to have finite capacity for particle density and that the flow function is modeled to be strictly increasing as density increases from zero up to the maximum density capacity, and is discontinuous at the maximum density capacity, with the flow function value being zero at that point. This feature, in particular, allows for the possibility of spill-backs in our model. In this paper, we present our results on resilience of such networks under distributed routing, towards perturbations that reduce link-wise flow functions.
We develop a systemic risk framework to explore cascading systemic failures in networked control systems. A time-delayed version of the vehicle platooning problem is used as a benchmark to study the interplay among network connectivity, system dynamics, physical limitations, and uncertainty onto the possibility of cascading failure phenomena. The measure of value-at-risk is employed to investigate the domino effect of failures among pairs of vehicles within the platoon. The systemic risk framework is suitably extended to quantify the robustness of cascading failures via a novel manipulation of…
Due to uncertainties and the complicated intrinsic dynamics of power systems, it is difficult to predict the cascading failure paths once the cascades occur. This makes it challenging to achieve the effective power system protection against cascading blackouts. By incorporating uncertainties and stochastic factors of the cascades, a Markov chain model is developed in this paper to predict the cascading failure paths of power systems. The transition matrix of Markov chain is dependent on the probability of branch outage caused by overloads or stochastic factors. Moreover, a robust optimization …
Time-based dynamic models of cascading failures have been recognized as one of the most comprehensive methods of representing detailed cascading information and are often used for benchmarking and validation. This paper provides an overview of the progress in the field of dynamic analysis of cascading failures in power systems and outlines the benefits and challenges of dynamic simulations in future grids. The benefits include the ability to capture temporal characteristics of system dynamics and provide timing information to facilitate control actions for blackout mitigation. The greatest bar…
With the sharp increase of power demand, large-scale blackouts in power grids occur frequently around the world. Cascading failures are the main causes of network outages. Therefore, revealing the complicated cascade mechanism in grids is conducive to design the efficient policy to restrain the failures and further ensure a stable supply of power to users. Motivated by the recent advances of network dynamics, we proposed a framework based Lyapunov stability to analyze the dynamically induced cascading failures in complex networks. We abandoned the assumption that the network is stable in tradi…
The ground truth for cascading failure in power system can only be obtained through a detailed dynamic model involving nonlinear differential and algebraic equations whose solution process is computationally expensive. This has prohibited adoption of such models for cascading failure simulation. To solve this, we propose a fast cascading failure simulation approach based on implicit Backward Euler method (BEM) with stiff decay property. Unfortunately, BEM suffers from hyperstability issue in case of oscillatory instability and converges to the unstable equilibrium. We propose a predictor-corre…
Power system cascading failures become more time variant and complex because of the increasing network interconnection and higher renewable energy penetration. High computational cost is the main obstacle for a more frequent online cascading failure search, which is essential to improve system security. In this work, we show that the complex mechanism of cascading failures can be well captured by training a graph convolutional network (GCN) offline. Subsequently, the search of cascading failures can be significantly accelerated with the aid of the trained GCN model. We link the power network t…
Identify Critical Branches with Cascading Failure Chain Statistics and Hypertext-Induced Topic Search Algorithm
School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University（武汉大学电气工程学院）；Department of Electrical, Computer & Biomedical Engineering, University of Rhode Island（罗德岛大学电气、计算机与生物医学工程系）；Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Florida Atlantic University（佛罗里达大西洋大学计算机与电气工程和计算机科学系）
Network redundancy is one of the spatial network structural properties critical to robustness against cascading failures in power networks. The waiting-time distributions for network partitions in cascading failures explain how the spatial network structures affect the cascading behaviors. Two waiting time events associated with the first and largest network partitions are studied for cascading failures under different network redundancies. With the synthetic power networks, the waiting-time distributions of network partitions can be systematically analyzed for various network redundancies. Wa…
In this paper, we introduce a distributed control strategy to prevent dynamically-induced cascading failures in power grids. We model power grids using complex networks and nonlinear dynamics to provide a coarse-grained description of the electro-mechanical phenomena taking place on them (in particular, we use coupled swing equations) and restrict our analysis to cascades of line failures, i.e., failures due to power flows exceeding the maximum capacity of a line. We formulate a distributed control protocol relying on the same topology of the physical layer and apply it to several power grid m…
GEIRI North America（美国GEIRI北美公司）；Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）
This paper proposes a cascading failure mitigation strategy based on Reinforcement Learning (RL) method. Firstly, the principles of RL are introduced. Then, the Multi-Stage Cascading Failure (MSCF) problem is presented and its challenges are investigated. The problem is then tackled by the RL based on DC-OPF (Optimal Power Flow). Designs of the key elements of the RL framework (rewards, states, etc.) are also discussed in detail. Experiments on the IEEE 118-bus system by both shallow and deep neural networks demonstrate promising results in terms of reduced system collapse rates.
In this paper, we propose an AC power flow based cascading failure model that explicitly considers external weather conditions, extreme temperatures in particular, and evaluates the impact of extreme temperature on the initiation and propagation of cascading blackouts. Specifically, load and dynamic line rating changes are modeled due to temperature disturbance, the probabilities for transmission line and generator outages are evaluated, and the timing for each type of events is carefully calculated to decide the actual event sequence. It should be emphasized that the correlated events, in the…
We develop a framework to assess the risk of cascading failures when a team of agents aims to rendezvous in time in the presence of exogenous noise and communication time-delay. The notion of value-at-risk (VaR) measure is used to evaluate the risk of cascading failures (i.e., waves of large fluctuations) when agents have failed to rendezvous. Furthermore, an efficient explicit formula is obtained to calculate the risk of higher-order cascading failures recursively. Finally, from a risk-aware design perspective, we report an evaluation of the most vulnerable sequence of agents in various commu…
A major risk of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) is cascading failure of electrical grids. The modeling of GMD events and cascading outages in power systems is difficult, both independently and jointly, because of the many different mechanisms and physics involved. This paper introduces a relaxation based modeling of GMD-induced cascading failures:~the dc approximation-based DCSIMSEP solver was adapted to simulate cascading as a result of GMDs, the full set of ac power flow equations were relaxed to guarantee optimality, and the reactive power losses were modeled while keeping the problem conve…
We develop a framework to assess the risk of cascading collisions in a platoon of vehicles in the presence of exogenous noise and communication time-delay. The notion of Value-at-Risk (VaR) is adopted to quantify the risk of collision between vehicles in a pair conditioned on the knowledge of multiple previously occurred failures in the platoon. We show that the risk of cascading failures depends on the Laplacian spectrum of the underlying communication graph, time-delay, and noise statistics. Furthermore, we exploit the structure of several standard graphs to show how the risk profile depends…
MATCASC: A tool to analyse cascading line outages in power grids
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学技术、政策与管理学院）；Computational Physics for Engineering Materials, ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院工程材料计算物理）
Cascading failures have become a severe threat to interconnected modern power systems. The ultrahigh complexity of the interconnected networks is the main challenge toward the understanding and management of cascading failures. In addition, high penetration of wind power integration introduces large uncertainties and further complicates the problem into a massive scenario simulation problem. This paper proposes a framework that enables a fast cascading path searching under high penetration of wind power. In addition, we ease the computational burden by formulating the cascading path searching …
The networked combat system-of-system (CSOS) is the trend of combat development with the innovation of technology. The achievement of combat effectiveness requires CSOS to have a good ability to deal with external interference. Here we report a modeling method of CSOS from the perspective of complex networks and explore the robustness of the combat network based on this. Firstly, a more realistic double-layer heterogeneous dependent combat network model is established. Then, the conditional group dependency situation is considered to design failure rules for dependent failure, and the coupling…
Understanding and analyzing cascading failures in power grids have been the focus of many researchers for years. However, the complex interactions among the large number of components in these systems and their contributions to cascading failures are not yet completely understood. Therefore, various techniques have been developed and used to model and analyze the underlying interactions among the components of the power grid with respect to cascading failures. Such methods are important to reveal the essential information that may not be readily available from power system physical models and …
Knowledge of power grid's topology during cascading failure is an essential element of centralized blackout prevention control, given that multiple islands are typically formed, as a cascade progresses. Moreover, academic research on interdependency between cyber and physical layers of the grid indicate that power failure during a cascade may lead to outages in communication networks, which progressively reduce the observable areas. These challenge the current literature on line outage detection, which assumes that the grid remains as a single connected component. We propose a new approach to …
In this work, cascading transmission line failures are studied through a dynamical model of the power system operating under fixed conditions. The power grid is modeled as a stochastic dynamical system where first-principles electromechanical dynamics are excited by small Gaussian disturbances in demand and generation around a specified operating point. In this context, a single line failure is interpreted in a large deviation context as a first escape event across a surface in phase space defined by line security constraints. The resulting system of stochastic differential equations admits a …
This paper studies the consequences of a human-initiated targeted attack on the national electric power system. We consider two kinds of attacks: ($i$) an attack by an adversary that uses a tactical weapon and destroys a large part of the grid, by physically targeting a large geographic region; ($ii$) a targeted attack by an adversary that takes out a small number of critical components in the network simultaneously. Our analysis uses ($i$) a realistic representation of the underlying power grid, including the topology, the control and protection components, ($ii$) a realistic representation o…
Research into cascading failures in power-transmission networks requires detailed data on the capacity of individual transmission lines. However, these data are often unavailable to researchers. As a result, line limits are often modelled by assuming they are proportional to some average load. Little research exists, however, to support this assumption as being realistic. In this paper, we analyse the proportional-loading (PL) approach and compare it to two linear models that use voltage and initial power flow as variables. In conducting this modelling, we test the ability of artificial line l…
One of the serious threats related to climate change is an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. A prominent example are hurricanes, which result from rising coastal temperatures. Such extreme weather events can cause extensive damages in infrastructure systems and, potentially, destroy components in electricity transmission networks, which in turn can lead to major blackouts. In our recent work, we study the risk of hurricane-induced cascading failures in power systems of the U.S. East Coast using historical wind field data sets. For this purpose, we model the destruc…
Transmission line failures in power systems propagate and cascade non-locally. This well-known yet counter-intuitive feature makes it even more challenging to optimally and reliably operate these complex networks. In this work we present a comprehensive framework based on spectral graph theory that fully and rigorously captures how multiple simultaneous line failures propagate, distinguishing between non-cut and cut set outages. Using this spectral representation of power systems, we identify the crucial graph sub-structure that ensures line failure localization -- the network bridge-block dec…
We propose an online detection procedure for cascading failures in the network from sequential data, which can be modeled as multiple correlated change-points happening during a short period. We consider a temporal diffusion network model to capture the temporal dynamic structure of multiple change-points and develop a sequential Shewhart procedure based on the generalized likelihood ratio statistics based on the diffusion network model assuming unknown post-change distribution parameters. We also tackle the computational complexity posed by the unknown propagation. Numerical experiments demon…
Hidden failures present a noticeable impact to the reliability of the United States electrical grid. These hazards are responsible for protective device misoperations and can cause multiple-element contingencies across nearby components, greatly increasing the likelihood of cascading events. This paper provides an in-depth overview of the causes and risks of hidden failures and discusses methods for identifying critical locations where hidden failures could pose a risk of cascading failure, with the ultimate goal being to identify efficient mitigation methods that can prevent their occurrence …
This paper explores whether graph embedding methods can be used as a tool for analysing the robustness of power-grids within the framework of network science. The paper focuses on the strain elevation tension spring embedding (SETSe) algorithm and compares it to node2vec and Deep Graph Infomax, and the measures mean edge capacity and line load. These five methods are tested on how well they can predict the collapse point of the giant component of a network under random attack. The analysis uses seven power-grid networks, ranging from 14 to 2000 nodes. In total, 3456 load profiles are created f…
Cascading failure in power systems is triggered by a small perturbation that leads to a sequence of failures spread through the system. The interconnection between different components in a power system causes failures to easily propagate across the system. The situation gets worse by considering the interconnection between cyber and physical layers in power systems. A plethora of work has studied the cascading failure in power systems to calculate its impact on the system. Understanding how failures propagate into the system in time and space can help the system operator to take preventive ac…
