In this work, cascading transmission line failures are studied through a dynamical model of the power system operating under fixed conditions. The power grid is modeled as a stochastic dynamical system where first-principles electromechanical dynamics are excited by small Gaussian disturbances in demand and generation around a specified operating point. In this context, a single line failure is interpreted in a large deviation context as a first escape event across a surface in phase space defined by line security constraints. The resulting system of stochastic differential equations admits a transverse decomposition of the drift, which leads to considerable simplification in evaluating the quasipotential (rate function) and, consequently, computation of exit rates. Tractable expressions for the rate of transmission line failure in a restricted network are derived from large deviation theory arguments and validated against numerical simulations. Extensions to realistic settings are considered, and individual line failure models are aggregated into a Markov model of cascading failure inspired by chemical kinetics. Cascades are generated by traversing a graph composed of weighted edges representing transitions to degraded network topologies. Numerical results indicate that the Markov model can produce cascades with qualitative power-law properties similar to those observed in empirical cascades.
We develop a systemic risk framework to explore cascading systemic failures in networked control systems. A time-delayed version of the vehicle platooning problem is used as a benchmark to study the interplay among network connectivity, system dynamics, physical limitations, and uncertainty onto the possibility of cascading failure phenomena. The measure of value-at-risk is employed to investigate the domino effect of failures among pairs of vehicles within the platoon. The systemic risk framework is suitably extended to quantify the robustness of cascading failures via a novel manipulation of…
Network redundancy is one of the spatial network structural properties critical to robustness against cascading failures in power networks. The waiting-time distributions for network partitions in cascading failures explain how the spatial network structures affect the cascading behaviors. Two waiting time events associated with the first and largest network partitions are studied for cascading failures under different network redundancies. With the synthetic power networks, the waiting-time distributions of network partitions can be systematically analyzed for various network redundancies. Wa…
Time-based dynamic models of cascading failures have been recognized as one of the most comprehensive methods of representing detailed cascading information and are often used for benchmarking and validation. This paper provides an overview of the progress in the field of dynamic analysis of cascading failures in power systems and outlines the benefits and challenges of dynamic simulations in future grids. The benefits include the ability to capture temporal characteristics of system dynamics and provide timing information to facilitate control actions for blackout mitigation. The greatest bar…
Identify Critical Branches with Cascading Failure Chain Statistics and Hypertext-Induced Topic Search Algorithm
School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University（武汉大学电气工程学院）；Department of Electrical, Computer & Biomedical Engineering, University of Rhode Island（罗德岛大学电气、计算机与生物医学工程系）；Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Florida Atlantic University（佛罗里达大西洋大学计算机与电气工程和计算机科学系）
In this paper, we introduce a distributed control strategy to prevent dynamically-induced cascading failures in power grids. We model power grids using complex networks and nonlinear dynamics to provide a coarse-grained description of the electro-mechanical phenomena taking place on them (in particular, we use coupled swing equations) and restrict our analysis to cascades of line failures, i.e., failures due to power flows exceeding the maximum capacity of a line. We formulate a distributed control protocol relying on the same topology of the physical layer and apply it to several power grid m…
A major risk of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) is cascading failure of electrical grids. The modeling of GMD events and cascading outages in power systems is difficult, both independently and jointly, because of the many different mechanisms and physics involved. This paper introduces a relaxation based modeling of GMD-induced cascading failures:~the dc approximation-based DCSIMSEP solver was adapted to simulate cascading as a result of GMDs, the full set of ac power flow equations were relaxed to guarantee optimality, and the reactive power losses were modeled while keeping the problem conve…
In this paper, we propose an AC power flow based cascading failure model that explicitly considers external weather conditions, extreme temperatures in particular, and evaluates the impact of extreme temperature on the initiation and propagation of cascading blackouts. Specifically, load and dynamic line rating changes are modeled due to temperature disturbance, the probabilities for transmission line and generator outages are evaluated, and the timing for each type of events is carefully calculated to decide the actual event sequence. It should be emphasized that the correlated events, in the…
We develop a framework to assess the risk of cascading failures when a team of agents aims to rendezvous in time in the presence of exogenous noise and communication time-delay. The notion of value-at-risk (VaR) measure is used to evaluate the risk of cascading failures (i.e., waves of large fluctuations) when agents have failed to rendezvous. Furthermore, an efficient explicit formula is obtained to calculate the risk of higher-order cascading failures recursively. Finally, from a risk-aware design perspective, we report an evaluation of the most vulnerable sequence of agents in various commu…
MATCASC: A tool to analyse cascading line outages in power grids
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学技术、政策与管理学院）；Computational Physics for Engineering Materials, ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院工程材料计算物理）
We develop a framework to assess the risk of cascading collisions in a platoon of vehicles in the presence of exogenous noise and communication time-delay. The notion of Value-at-Risk (VaR) is adopted to quantify the risk of collision between vehicles in a pair conditioned on the knowledge of multiple previously occurred failures in the platoon. We show that the risk of cascading failures depends on the Laplacian spectrum of the underlying communication graph, time-delay, and noise statistics. Furthermore, we exploit the structure of several standard graphs to show how the risk profile depends…
The networked combat system-of-system (CSOS) is the trend of combat development with the innovation of technology. The achievement of combat effectiveness requires CSOS to have a good ability to deal with external interference. Here we report a modeling method of CSOS from the perspective of complex networks and explore the robustness of the combat network based on this. Firstly, a more realistic double-layer heterogeneous dependent combat network model is established. Then, the conditional group dependency situation is considered to design failure rules for dependent failure, and the coupling…
Knowledge of power grid's topology during cascading failure is an essential element of centralized blackout prevention control, given that multiple islands are typically formed, as a cascade progresses. Moreover, academic research on interdependency between cyber and physical layers of the grid indicate that power failure during a cascade may lead to outages in communication networks, which progressively reduce the observable areas. These challenge the current literature on line outage detection, which assumes that the grid remains as a single connected component. We propose a new approach to …
The ground truth for cascading failure in power system can only be obtained through a detailed dynamic model involving nonlinear differential and algebraic equations whose solution process is computationally expensive. This has prohibited adoption of such models for cascading failure simulation. To solve this, we propose a fast cascading failure simulation approach based on implicit Backward Euler method (BEM) with stiff decay property. Unfortunately, BEM suffers from hyperstability issue in case of oscillatory instability and converges to the unstable equilibrium. We propose a predictor-corre…
One of the serious threats related to climate change is an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. A prominent example are hurricanes, which result from rising coastal temperatures. Such extreme weather events can cause extensive damages in infrastructure systems and, potentially, destroy components in electricity transmission networks, which in turn can lead to major blackouts. In our recent work, we study the risk of hurricane-induced cascading failures in power systems of the U.S. East Coast using historical wind field data sets. For this purpose, we model the destruc…
This paper studies the consequences of a human-initiated targeted attack on the national electric power system. We consider two kinds of attacks: ($i$) an attack by an adversary that uses a tactical weapon and destroys a large part of the grid, by physically targeting a large geographic region; ($ii$) a targeted attack by an adversary that takes out a small number of critical components in the network simultaneously. Our analysis uses ($i$) a realistic representation of the underlying power grid, including the topology, the control and protection components, ($ii$) a realistic representation o…
Transmission line failures in power systems propagate and cascade non-locally. This well-known yet counter-intuitive feature makes it even more challenging to optimally and reliably operate these complex networks. In this work we present a comprehensive framework based on spectral graph theory that fully and rigorously captures how multiple simultaneous line failures propagate, distinguishing between non-cut and cut set outages. Using this spectral representation of power systems, we identify the crucial graph sub-structure that ensures line failure localization -- the network bridge-block dec…
We propose an online detection procedure for cascading failures in the network from sequential data, which can be modeled as multiple correlated change-points happening during a short period. We consider a temporal diffusion network model to capture the temporal dynamic structure of multiple change-points and develop a sequential Shewhart procedure based on the generalized likelihood ratio statistics based on the diffusion network model assuming unknown post-change distribution parameters. We also tackle the computational complexity posed by the unknown propagation. Numerical experiments demon…
Hidden failures present a noticeable impact to the reliability of the United States electrical grid. These hazards are responsible for protective device misoperations and can cause multiple-element contingencies across nearby components, greatly increasing the likelihood of cascading events. This paper provides an in-depth overview of the causes and risks of hidden failures and discusses methods for identifying critical locations where hidden failures could pose a risk of cascading failure, with the ultimate goal being to identify efficient mitigation methods that can prevent their occurrence …
Cascading failure in power systems is triggered by a small perturbation that leads to a sequence of failures spread through the system. The interconnection between different components in a power system causes failures to easily propagate across the system. The situation gets worse by considering the interconnection between cyber and physical layers in power systems. A plethora of work has studied the cascading failure in power systems to calculate its impact on the system. Understanding how failures propagate into the system in time and space can help the system operator to take preventive ac…
This paper explores whether graph embedding methods can be used as a tool for analysing the robustness of power-grids within the framework of network science. The paper focuses on the strain elevation tension spring embedding (SETSe) algorithm and compares it to node2vec and Deep Graph Infomax, and the measures mean edge capacity and line load. These five methods are tested on how well they can predict the collapse point of the giant component of a network under random attack. The analysis uses seven power-grid networks, ranging from 14 to 2000 nodes. In total, 3456 load profiles are created f…
