Non-communicable diseases like diabetes, obesity and certain forms of cancer have been increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the global epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether diabetes, obesity and cancer show spatial correlations revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We adapt a theoretical framework for critical physical systems displaying collective behavior to decipher the laws of spatial spreading of diseases. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution. This collective behavior indicates that the spreading dynamics of obesity, diabetes and some forms of cancer like lung cancer are analogous to a critical point of fluctuations, just as a physical system in a second-order phase transition. According to this notion, individual interactions and habits may have negligible influence in shaping the global patterns of spreading. Thus, obesity turns out to be a global problem where local details are of little importance. Interestingly, we find the same critical fluctuations in obesity and diabetes, and in the activities of economic sectors associated with food production such as supermarkets, food and beverage stores--- which cluster in a different universality class than other generic sectors of the economy. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.
Learning Interpretable Collective Variables for Spreading Processes on Networks
Zuse Institute Berlin（柏林齐泽研究所）；FutureLab on Game Theory and Networks of Interacting Agents, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research（波茨坦气候影响研究所博弈论与相互作用智能体网络未来实验室）；Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research（波茨坦气候影响研究所）；Complexity Science Department, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research（波茨坦气候影响研究所复杂性科学系）；Department of Mathematics, University of Bayreuth（拜罗伊特大学数学系）
The impact of heterogeneity on the co-evolution of cooperation and epidemic spreading in complex networks
Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS)（基础科学高等研究院）；Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior（马克斯·普朗克动物行为研究所）；University of Konstanz（康斯坦茨大学）
