2007年圣安娜火灾实时模拟
Real time simulation of 2007 Santa Ana fires
摘要：
有许多野火行为的相关性越来越大，即使是最复杂的业务火灾蔓延和火灾行为模型的预测能力之外。业务模式的局限性主要是由于它们无法代表耦合火-大气相互作用。耦合野火-大气模型是基于物理学的野火蔓延和行为的流体动力学诊断模式，试图几乎完整地表示火灾-大气相互作用。然而，这种保真度意味着这些模型不能在操作中使用。原因在于，尽管计算资源不断增加，但这种建模方法所涉及的过程和尺度（1 mm至100 km）的复杂性和范围使得计算成本非常昂贵。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个中间的方法。一个基于物理的耦合大气火灾模型是用来解决大尺度和当地的天气以及大气火灾的相互作用，而燃烧是简单地使用现有的业务表面火灾行为模型。这种模型组合在保真度和执行速度之间取得了平衡。这种方法的可行性研究的基础上分析的两个非常大的圣安娜火灾的数值模拟使用WRF-Sfire，一个耦合的大气火灾模型，可在开放的荒地火灾建模社区（OpenWFM. org）;早期版本可作为WRF火灾WRF释放。该研究表明，以能够对该事件进行实时野火预测的执行速度获得了合理准确度的风和火灾蔓延预测。
英文摘要：
There are many wildfire behaviors of increasing relevance that are outside the forecast capabilities of even the most sophisticated operational fire spread and fire behavior model. The limitations of the operational models are due primarily to their inability to represent coupled fire-atmosphere interactions. Coupled wildfire-atmosphere models are physics-based fluid-dynamical prognostic models of wildfire spread and behavior that attempt an almost complete representation of fire-atmosphere interactions. This level of fidelity however means that these models cannot be used operationally. The reason is that, despite ever increasing computational resources, the complexity and range of processes and scales (1 mm to 100 km) involved in this modeling approach make computational costs prohibitively expensive. In this study we propose an intermediate approach. A physics-based coupled atmosphere-fire model is used to resolve the large-scale and local weather as well as the atmosphere-fire interactions, while combustion is represented simply using an existing operational surface fire behavior model. This model combination strikes a balance between fidelity and speed of execution. The feasibility of this approach is examined based on an analysis of a numerical simulation of two very large Santa Ana fires using WRF-Sfire, a coupled atmosphere-fire model available at the Open Wildland Fire Modeling Community (OpenWFM.org); an earlier version is available as WRF-Fire in WRF release. The study demonstrates that a wind and fire spread forecast of reasonable accuracy was obtained at an execution speed that would have made real-time wildfire forecasting of this event possible.
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