Short-term forecast of the total and spectral solar irradiance
Luis Eduardo A. Vieira, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Matthieu Kretzschmar
备注：
Submitted to Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate. The near real-time forecast of the total and spectral solar irradiance available at http://lpc2e.cnrs-orleans.fr/~soteria/
Among several heliophysical and geophysical quantities, the accurate evolution of the solar irradiance is fundamental to forecast the evolution of the neutral and ionized components of the Earth's atmosphere.We developed an artificial neural network model to compute the evolution of the solar irradiance in near-real time. The model is based on the assumption that that great part of the solar irradiance variability is due to the evolution of the structure of the solar magnetic field. We employ a Layer-Recurrent Network (LRN) to model the complex relationships between the evolution of the bipolar magnetic structures (input) and the solar irradiance (output). The evolution of the bipolar magnetic structures is obtained from near-real time solar disk magnetograms and intensity images. The magnetic structures are identify and classified according to the area of the solar disk covered. We constrained the model by comparing the output of the model and observations of the solar irradiance made by instruments onboard of SORCE spacecraft. Here we focus on two regions of the spectra that are covered by SORCE instruments. The generalization of the network is tested by dividing the data sets on two groups: the training set; and, the validation set. We have found that the model error is wavelength dependent. While the model error for 24-hour forecast in the band from 115 to 180 nm is lower than 5%, the model error can reach 20% in the band from 180 to 310 nm. The performance of the network reduces progressively with the increase of the forecast period, which limits significantly the maximum forecast period that we can achieve with the discussed architecture. The model proposed allows us to predict the total and spectral solar irradiance up to three days in advance.
In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of embedding temporal information for an accurate prediction of solar irradiance. We have used two sets of models for forecasting solar irradiance. The first one uses only time series data of solar irradiance for predicting future values. The second one uses the historical solar irradiance values, together with the corresponding timestamps. We employ data from the weather station located at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore. The solar irradiance values are recorded with a temporal resolution of $1$ minute, for a period of $1$ year. We…
We address the importance of historical full disc Ca II K spectroheliograms for solar activity and irradiance reconstruction studies. We review our work on processing such data to enable them to be used in irradiance reconstructions. We also present our preliminary estimates of the plage areas from five of the longest available historical Ca II K archives.
New Jersey Institute of Technology（新泽西理工学院）；National Solar Observatory（美国国家太阳天文台）
The Earth's primary source of energy is the radiant energy generated by the Sun, which is referred to as solar irradiance, or total solar irradiance (TSI) when all of the radiation is measured. A minor change in the solar irradiance can have a significant impact on the Earth's climate and atmosphere. As a result, studying and measuring solar irradiance is crucial in understanding climate changes and solar variability. Several methods have been developed to reconstruct total solar irradiance for long and short periods of time; however, they are physics-based and rely on the availability of data…
Context. Total solar irradiance allows for the use of the Sun as a star for studying observations of stellar light curves from recent space missions. Aims. We aim to study how the mid-range periodicity observed in solar activity indices influences the total solar irradiance. Methods. We studied periodic variations of total solar irradiance based on SATIRE-S and SOHO/VIRGO data during solar cycles 23-24 on timescales of Rieger-type periodicity. Then we compared the power spectrum of oscillations in the total solar irradiance to those of sunspot and faculae data to determine their contributions.…
This is an overview of non-equilibrium aspects of the formation of solar continua and lines affecting the contributions by magnetic network and plage to spectrally resolved solar irradiance. After a brief summary of these contributions and a compact refresher of solar spectrum formation, the emphasis is on graphical exposition. Major obstacles for simulation-based irradiance studies are how to cope with NLTE scattering in the violet and ultraviolet line haze and how to cope with retarded hydrogen opacities in infrared and mm radiation.
We examine SDO/EVE data to better understand solar flare irradiance, and how that irradiance may vary for large events. We measure scaling laws relating GOES flare classes to irradiance in 21 lines measured with SDO/EVE, formed across a wide range of temperatures, and find that this scaling depends on the line formation temperature. We extrapolate these irradiance values to large events, exceeding X10. In order to create full spectra, however, we need a physical model of the irradiance. We present the first results of a new physical model of solar flare irradiance, NRLFLARE, that sums together…
This topical collection summarizes recent advances in observing and modeling irradiance variations of the Sun and Sun-like stars, emphasizing the links between surface magnetic fields and the resulting solar and stellar variability. In particular, the articles composing this collection summarize recent progress in i) solar-irradiance measurements; ii) modeling of solar- and stellar-irradiance variability; and iii) understanding of the effects of such variability on Earth's climate and exoplanet environments. This topical-collection overview article gives background and more details on these as…
Analysis and modeling of solar irradiance variations
太阳发电机的一个突出表现是11年的活动周期，这在包括太阳辐照度在内的太阳活动指标中很明显。虽然太阳活动和太阳亮度之间的关系一直被怀疑，但直到1978年发射Nimbus-7号卫星后才能进行定期卫星测量，才直接观测到。在从空间测量太阳辐照度的同时，还开发了一些模型，目的是通过光球层中磁结构所造成的强度过剩/不足来描述表观可变性。更复杂的模型，称为半经验，依赖于强度光谱的光球磁结构产生的辐射转移代码从半经验模型大气。SATIRE-S（Spectral And Total Irradiance Reconstruction for the Satellite era）是一个典型的卫星辐射模型。当前半经验模型的一个关键限制是，由于使用平面平行模型大气（而不是三维模型大气），网络和光斑的辐射特性没有得到充分表示。这篇论文是四个出版物的汇编，详细介绍了调查的结果，旨在为最终引入三维大气到SATIRE-S和审查太阳辐照度的测量和建模的现状奠定必要的基础。还介绍了SATIRE-S模型的更新。我们生成了一个总的和光谱太阳辐照度的每日重建，覆盖1974年到现在，这是更可靠的，在大多数情况下，扩展比类似的重建从当代模型。
We aim to gain insight into the effect of network and faculae on solar irradiance from their apparent intensity. Taking full-disc observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we examined the intensity contrast of network and faculae in the continuum and core of the Fe I 6173 Å line and 1700 Å, including the variation with magnetic flux density, distance from disc centre, nearby magnetic fields, and time. The brightness of network and faculae is believed to be suppressed by nearby magnetic fields from its effect on convection. The difference in intensity contrast between the quiet-Sun netw…
Context. There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance difference between Maunder minimum and present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W/m2 making uncertain the simulation of the past and future climate. One reason for this disagreement is the applied evolution of the quiet Sun brightness in the solar irradiance reconstruction models. This work addresses the role of the quiet Sun model choice and updated solar magnetic activity proxies on the solar forcing reconstruction. Aims. We aim to establish a plausible range of the…
One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e. on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e. days) using solar proxies as inputs. Preminger and Walton (2005, GRL, 32, 14109) showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar…
We use a new Atmospheric Chemistry and Energetics one-dimensional (ACE1D) thermospheric model to show that the energies deposited by the solar soft x-rays in the lower thermosphere at altitudes between 100 -150 km (Bailey et al. 2000), affects the temperature of the entire Earth's thermosphere even at altitudes well above 300 km. By turning off the input solar flux in the different wavelength bins of the model iteratively, we are able to demonstrate that the maximum change in exospheric temperature is due to the changes in the soft x-ray solar bins. We also show, using the thermodynamic heat e…
For a "reference day" of minimal solar activity between cycles 23 and 24 we compute the brightness temperature from solar spectral irradiance for each wavelength. We consider small variations of irradiance and temperature about the reference day values, and derive linear and quadratic analytic temperature approximations by Taylor expansion about the reference values. To determine approximation accuracy we compare to exact brightness temperatures computed for each day. We find that the linear analytic approximation overestimates, while the quadratic underestimates the exact result. Using R soft…
Improving Solar EUV Irradiance Modeling with Differential Emission Measure Informed Spectra
University of Colorado at Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado（科罗拉多大学环境科学研究合作研究所）；NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information（美国国家海洋和大气管理局国家环境信息中心）；Southwest Research Institute（西南研究院）；Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校大气与空间物理实验室）；Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center（洛克希德·马丁先进技术中心）；Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation（联邦科学与工业研究组织）
One of the objectives of the NASA LWS Institute on Nowcasting of Atmospheric Drag for LEO Spacecraft was to investigate whether and how to increase the accuracy of atmospheric drag models by improving the quality of the solar forcing inputs, namely Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance information. In this focused review, we examine the status of and issues with EUV measurements and proxies, discuss recent promising developments, and suggest a number of ways to improve the reliability, availability, and forecast accuracy of EUV measurements in the next solar cycle.
Knowledge of solar irradiance variability is critical to Earth's climate models and understanding the solar influence on Earth's climate. Direct solar irradiance measurements are only available since 1978. Reconstructions of past variability typically rely on sunspot data. These provide only indirect information on the facular and network regions, which are decisive contributors to irradiance variability on timescales of the solar cycle and longer. Our ultimate goal is to reconstruct past solar irradiance variations using historical full-disc Ca II K observations to describe the facular contri…
