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arXiv 1108.5565math.PR
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关于传染病模型中分数线性纯出生和纯死亡过程的注记

A note on fractional linear pure birth and pure death processes in epidemic models

Roberto Garra, Federico Polito

摘要:

本文着重讨论了最近在\citet{sakhno}和\citet{pol}中研究的分数线性出生过程和线性死亡过程在事件服从经验幂律分布的流行病模型中的作用.受传染病型余震序列(ETAS)模型的自洽方程与描述分数线性增长过程均值的分数阶微分方程之间的形式类比的启发,我们展示了分数阶模型在不假设任何经验分布的情况下研究\textit{ab initio}传染病过程的一些有趣应用.我们还表明,在分数模型的框架下,亚临界政权可以链接到线性分数死亡过程和超临界政权的线性分数出生过程。此外,我们讨论了一个简单的玩具模型,以强调这些随机增长模型的可能应用更一般的流行病现象,如肿瘤的生长。

英文摘要:

In this note we highlight the role of fractional linear birth and linear death processes recently studied in \citet{sakhno} and \citet{pol}, in relation to epidemic models with empirical power law distribution of the events. Taking inspiration from a formal analogy between the equation of self consistency of the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model, and the fractional differential equation describing the mean value of fractional linear growth processes, we show some interesting applications of fractional modelling to study \textit{ab initio} epidemic processes without the assumption of any empirical distribution. We also show that, in the frame of fractional modelling, subcritical regimes can be linked to linear fractional death processes and supercritical regimes to linear fractional birth processes. Moreover we discuss a simple toy model to underline the possible application of these stochastic growth models to more general epidemic phenomena such as tumoral growth.

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