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arXiv 1107.4468math.STstat.TH
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连续时间滑动平均过程的高频采样与核估计

High-frequency sampling and kernel estimation for continuous-time moving average processes

Peter Brockwell, Vincenzo Ferrazzano, Claudia Klüppelberg

摘要:

近年来,人们对连续时间过程的兴趣迅速增加,主要是因为在许多应用中可以获得高频数据。我们开发了一种估计二阶平稳Lévy驱动的连续时间移动平均(CMA)过程$Y$的核函数$g$的方法,该方法基于对小$Δ$的$Y$在$Δ, 2Δ,...,nΔ$处采样获得的离散时间过程$Y^Δ$的观测。我们用基于Wold表示的$g^Δ$逼近$g$,并证明了对于$\CARMA(p,q)$过程,它作为$Δ\rightarrow 0$逐点收敛于$g$.基于新息算法和Durbin-Levinson算法,提出了$g^Δ$的两种非参数估计方法,用于估计$g$ .对于高斯CARMA过程,我们给出了新息估计量相合且渐近正态为$n\rightarrow\infty$的样本容量$n$和网格间距$Δ(n)$的条件.估计可以从{ \it any} CMA过程的采样观测值计算,并且模拟表明它们甚至在CARMA过程类之外也表现良好。我们说明了他们的模拟数据的性能,并将其应用到布鲁克海文湍流风速数据。最后,我们推广的结果\citet{bfk:2011:1}抽样CARMA过程的CMA过程更广泛的一类。

英文摘要:

Interest in continuous-time processes has increased rapidly in recent years, largely because of high-frequency data available in many applications. We develop a method for estimating the kernel function $g$ of a second-order stationary Lévy-driven continuous-time moving average (CMA) process $Y$ based on observations of the discrete-time process $Y^Δ$ obtained by sampling $Y$ at $Δ, 2Δ,...,nΔ$ for small $Δ$. We approximate $g$ by $g^Δ$ based on the Wold representation and prove its pointwise convergence to $g$ as $Δ\rightarrow 0$ for $\CARMA(p,q)$ processes. Two non-parametric estimators of $g^Δ$, based on the innovations algorithm and the Durbin-Levinson algorithm, are proposed to estimate $g$. For a Gaussian CARMA process we give conditions on the sample size $n$ and the grid-spacing $Δ(n)$ under which the innovations estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal as $n\rightarrow\infty$. The estimators can be calculated from sampled observations of {\it any} CMA process and simulations suggest that they perform well even outside the class of CARMA processes. We illustrate their performance for simulated data and apply them to the Brookhaven turbulent wind speed data. Finally we extend results of \citet{bfk:2011:1} for sampled CARMA processes to a much wider class of CMA processes.

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