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arXiv 1106.1887cs.LG
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具有潜在因子的时间序列依赖图的学习

Learning the Dependence Graph of Time Series with Latent Factors

University of Texas at Austin(德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校)

Ali Jalali, Sujay Sanghavi

摘要:

本文考虑了当某些变量是潜变量时,从样本中学习线性随机微分方程组的依赖结构的问题。特别地,我们观察一些变量的时间演化,而从不观察其他变量;由此,我们希望找到所观察变量之间的依赖结构-分离出由潜在变量的时间序列(边缘化)引起的虚假相互作用。我们开发了一种新的方法,凸优化的基础上,这样做的情况下,当潜变量的数量小于观察到的。对于观测变量之间的依赖结构稀疏的情况,我们从理论上建立了一个高维尺度结构恢复的结果。我们验证了我们的理论结果与合成和实际数据(从股票市场)。

英文摘要:

This paper considers the problem of learning, from samples, the dependency structure of a system of linear stochastic differential equations, when some of the variables are latent. In particular, we observe the time evolution of some variables, and never observe other variables; from this, we would like to find the dependency structure between the observed variables - separating out the spurious interactions caused by the (marginalizing out of the) latent variables' time series. We develop a new method, based on convex optimization, to do so in the case when the number of latent variables is smaller than the number of observed ones. For the case when the dependency structure between the observed variables is sparse, we theoretically establish a high-dimensional scaling result for structure recovery. We verify our theoretical result with both synthetic and real data (from the stock market).

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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